Drew & Christine Morgan Belmont California Real Estate

The sales data for March is available on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

It's interesting to note the ten year median price trend and where we are in relation to the overall median price trend.

Note that the median in home price for San Mateo County is currently below where it should be in the ten-year appreciation trend. That means prices have dropped, but it also means that prices are below historical trend levels-in other words-now is a good point in the real estate cycle to buy a home.

Could values go down further? Perhaps. But if you have been waiting for an opportune time to purchase a home or an investments property such an opportunity currently exists which hasn't been seen for years. And as with most investments which catch on. Getting in sooner rather than later has its distinct monetary advantages.

The sales data for March is available on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

It's interesting to note the ten year median price trend and where we are in relation to the overall median price trend.

Note that the median in home price for San Mateo County is currently below where it should be in the ten-year appreciation trend. That means prices have dropped, but it also means that prices are below historical trend levels-in other words-now is a good point in the real estate cycle to buy a home.

Could values go down further? Perhaps. But if you have been waiting for an opportune time to purchase a home or an investments property such an opportunity currently exists which hasn't been seen for years. And as with most investments which catch on. Getting in sooner rather than later has its distinct monetary advantages.

The sales data for March is available on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

It's interesting to note the ten year median price trend and where we are in relation to the overall median price trend.

Note that the median in home price for San Mateo County is currently below where it should be in the ten-year appreciation trend. That means prices have dropped, but it also means that prices are below historical trend levels-in other words-now is a good point in the real estate cycle to buy a home.

Could values go down further? Perhaps. But if you have been waiting for an opportune time to purchase a home or an investments property such an opportunity currently exists which hasn't been seen for years. And as with most investments which catch on. Getting in sooner rather than later has its distinct monetary advantages.

This is a graph for South San Francisco median home prices illustrating the home price trend for 2007 as compared to San Mateo County as a whole. It's certainly no shock to us that San Mateo County outperformed South San Francisco as a whole since San Mateo County is comprised of very affluent and stable markets such as Atherton, Hillsborough, Woodside and to a lesser degree Burlingame, Belmont etc.

South San Francisco was hit harder by the mortgage crises and subsequent default fallout since so many of the homes sold there were sold to first time homeowner with 100% bank financed purchases.

SALES

• Sales are down 55% over this time last year.

• The time it takes to sell a home is up 31% to just over 3 months

And perhaps the most telling statistic is the current inventory levels which are up 102 %! At the current rate of sales it would take 15 months to liquidate the existing inventory.

Since February of last year prices dropped around 15%-20% (20% drop for Feb 2008 over Feb 2007). We suspect that they will continue to go down a little further until existing inventory levels balance out. Price drops will hopefully level out in the third quarter of 2008 and remain flat until perhaps 2010 (that's pure speculation).

The reason we feel that it probably won't get too much worse is the number of new listings coming on the market has slowed considerably- rising only 12% over last year in February as opposed to 58% in January-perhaps indicating that the people who were forced to sell their homes are already doing so and that the worst might be over in South San Francisco.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Comparing March of 2007 to March 2008, it's interesting to note that the median price dropped 3.9% or $50,000-from $1,265,000 in 2007 to $1,215,000 in 2008. It's especially revealing in that the median home which sold during those two periods was exactly the same size-2,390 square feet; and the number of sales for the two periods was identical at seven. The only noteworthy anomaly was two homes in Governor's Bay which sold for the exact same price a year apart. Both sales involved the same model floor plan and in both cases the home was listed at $1,589,000 and sold over asking for $1,620,000. Clearly that comparison alone would indicate flat appreciation for the past year but unfortunately one sale is not enough to adequately gauge the entire market. Stated more succinctly, that buyer probably paid above what the market should have dictated the home was worth.

MARKET ANALYSIS

The price per square foot dropped from $548,000 to $535,000 in 2008.

In 2007 four of the seven homes sold on average for $7,000 less. In 2008 only two sold under asking-again for about $7,000. One change between the two years is that in 2007 the median asking price was $1,295,000 which dropped to $1,199,000 in 2008, reflecting a realistic selling strategy for pricing homes less-which they received.

Essentially last year more buyers were underbidding for homes and this year more people are overbidding. This is a direct result of lower asking prices-not because the market has become more competitive. In other words you can still find yourself in a bidding war, just at a lower price point than before.

Don't forget, you can always view our monthly updated market reports on-line at MorganHomes.com and read our commentary at BeautifulMountainBlog.org.

*Full area market data is typically updated by the 10^th of every month.