Drew & Christine Morgan Belmont California Real Estate

While reports of drastic median price drops continue in the media, isolated areas which are less impacted receive little or no attention. At some point the news should be about areas that are not impacted-why are prices holding up so well when other areas are suffering the greatest set back in years. But those turning to the mass media are clearly missing the whole story. This week, on June 1^st, the Open Homes Guide section of the Sunday edition of the San Francisco Chronicle ran the home price closings-for April!

Forget about the fact that they are typically 1 to 1.5 months behind the market, they dutifully report the numbers without analysis or professional perspective.

We've just completed the May housing report for Belmont and wihtout our in-depth analysis it would appear that Belmont Median price rose form $930,000 in April to $1,098,000 in May--a whopping 18% in one month! Click here to see how we make adjustments to arrive a a more accurate number...

May home sales statistics for Belmont are in and while there are no real surprises, that may be the best news yet.

↑At 17, there were four fewer Belmont home sales in May than April. Year over year (adjusted for seasonal selling patterns) there is no change over 2007. In 2006 there were 21 sales in May and at the height of the market in 2005 there were 29. Considering what the rest of the state is going through, we consider this a positive indicator for home values.

↓Of the 17 sales five homes sold over asking, one sold at the asking price and 11 sold under the seller's asking price. That's not as strong as last month where nine homes sold over and 10 sold under while two sold at asking price.

↗The average home which sold over asking sold for $61,000 over the seller's asking price in seven days. The one home that sold at the seller's asking price sold in one day. Of the 11 homes that sold under asking, those had been on the market an average of 89 days and sold for on average $30,500 less than the asking price. Contrasted to April where the average home sold for $31,000 over asking in 18 days, this is a relatively good sign and clearly one more indicator that seller's should hire a local professional to assist them in pricing their home right.

↗The median price was $1,098,000 in May. Just last month it was only $930,000. The median size home sold in April was 211 smaller than in May. At current going rate of $ 574 per square foot, that adds another $121,000 onto April's median home price, or conversely, subtracting that from May's median home price (which is closer to the actual median home size in Belmont), we arrive at an adjusted median home value of $977,000 for May-statistically no change over April's. Nevertheless, no change would be welcome and to have even a slight indication of price stabilization is a positive market indicator.

Sign-up for our local newsletter and receive an email alert and link around the tenth of each month to our detailed graphs for Peninsula cities.

↔Unchanged

↑Positive market force

↓Negative market force

↗↙Probable trend upward or downward

A week ago I posted a blog complaining about the relentless wind in Belmont over the past several weeks. This week we are enjoying record high temperatures not seen since 1970. Personally, I love the warm temperatures and slight breezes we get that take the edge off the heat.

May 14^th we had high clouds which made for a spectacular sunset—I think one of the best I have ever seen in Belmont.

When the Peninsula gets weather like this I can think of no other place I’d rather be living.

Nikon D70

Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR

Date taken: May 14^th 2008

Time: 20:24:25

f/4.5 1/8 exposure ISO 200 Handheld 40mm focal length

Nikon D70

Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR

Date taken: May 14^th 2008

Time: 20:19:35

f/5.6 1/20 exposure ISO 200 Handheld 200mm focal length

If you’ve been thinking like we have, you're probably wondering when will the weather get a little warmer.

The wind has been relentless this month. Our Davis weather station located at our home in the Hallmark area of Belmont, has been collecting data since we moved to from Barclay Way in 2001. We’ve been broadcasting it live since January 2002 and it receives more hits than any of our other web pages each month.

A recent software upgrade has allowed us to extract data for analysis and this is my first graph. It illustrates the wind at time intervals for the Month of May, 2008—to date.

Notice that there hasn’t been one day so far this month that there hasn’t been any wind between the hours of 12:45 PM to 11:00 PM!

The positive ions wind can create may actually have a negative affect on the body by raising stress levels. Ever wonder why lying near a stream or waterfall feels so relaxing? Moving water creates negative ions which counteract the effects of positive ions created by the wind. Try washing your face with water after a bike ride. We hear it’s not just the coolness of the water that feels so good; it’s the positive ions being cancelled out by negative ones that have a calming effect. Admittedly these articles are not from scientific scholars, but sometimes experiencing something for yourself is all the affirmation one needs.

After awhile, the wind begins to grow a little tiresome and we’re just waiting for a calm mild day—I know a lull before the storm.

If the media gets a hold of the median price changes in San Carlos they'll be sure to spew more aspersions on the local housing market. According to the data reported in the MLS for San Mateo County, San Carlos's median home price fell from $1,199,000 in March 2008 to $915,000 in April. If true, that would mean a drop in value of over $284,000 or 24% in one month!

But alas, homeowners need not listen to the media reports since they will invariably not account for the fact that the median size home which sold in April was a whopping 395 square feet smaller-accounting for approximately $252,000 in the adjusted median home price.

As always, full statistical data is available on our web page at Morganhomes.com and we frequently discuss housing market trends on the peninsula on our blog page, BeautifulMountainBlog.org