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Drew & Christine Morgan Belmont California Real Estate

Bay Area Population Growth Spurs Housing Demand

Anyone who owned a home in the Bay Area back in 1989 must remember the subsequent downturn in the market. That downturn was caused by a loss of Bay Area jobs. Home values fell as jobless homeowners sought to liquidate their mortgage overhead. Companies offered out-of-state relocations packages and early retirement to employees while many others opted to voluntarily move out of state. The latest Bay Area job report indicates that for now at least we are safe from that negative market force called unemployment. The nine Bay Area county population grew 1.4% last year and new arrivals helped buoy the housing market—if not more in the rental sector than homeownership. "It's evidence that the Bay Area is doing better economically than the rest of the state," said Mary Heim, head of the demographics research unit at the state Department of Finance, which released the new population numbers. This link http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/population/ allows you to see any city’s population growth and it’s definitely worth checking out. Whenever there is a market sell-off due to dire circumstances, such as we are experiencing now in the foreclosure arenas, prices drop. Why? Simply put in order to be the next sale you must have the lowest price and/or be the best home on the market. The housing market today is not unlike that of 1990 in that in many areas folks are forced to sell their homes and prices are dropping. But the Peninsula of the Bay Area has been fairing far better. First, there are far fewer foreclosures on the Peninsula and thus virtually no downward pressure on pricing from that market force. There’s market skepticism and a general reluctance on the part of many to enter the market; and we all know the new tighter lending practices have make it difficult to impossible for many to buy a home if they wanted to. But jobs are not one of the issues facing the Peninsula right now. If the unemployment rate rises dramatically or more simply put, if people start to leave the Bay Area (voluntarily or not)—where more people are leaving than are arriving—it could all change. Clearly a prolonged recession could have just such an impact and tip the precariously balanced local housing market in favor of a drastic sell-off. See our homepage at MorganHomes.com for monthly updated local market graphs and our blog page at Beautifulmountainblog.org for detailed market analysis and commentary.

Belmont's Crosswalk Etiquette is Sorely Lacking

Is crosswalk etiquette dead or did it ever exist?

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This is our city, Belmont California; and this is our office, Carlmont Associates. Here we are smack dab in the middle of Belmont on the corner of Ralston Ave. and Villa--obviously a big enough intersection to get Google's attention.

The cross walk you see here is the topic of today's rant. You see the city installed an illuminated cross walk—you know the ones with the flashing yellow lights imbedded into the street—to assist pedestrians in crossing the road. Well not really to help them get across, but to help them get there more safely by making them easier for drivers to notice.

Clearly in order to get to my office I play the role of both a driver and pedestrian. First, in defense of the drivers, it's really hard to see people when you are staring into the sunset. Spin this interactive camera around and you'll see what we mean. It’s much easier to see the lights flashing in the road than to see a pedestrian standing off to one side—especially when they are often obscured by opposing traffic.

Don’t get me wrong--I think these lights are a great idea. Especially since my night vision isn’t what it used to be. But pedestrians take advantage of the "It's the Law" rule that one must stop for them in a crosswalk. When I'm the pedestrian (which I often am getting to and from our office), before I leap out into the crosswalk and stop traffic like Moses parting the Red Sea, as a common courtesy, I stop to see if the light at the corner of Ralston and Alameda is red or green. If it’s green, I’ll wait patiently and let the cars make the green light and only when it turns yellow will I press the power button to halt all traffic in deference to my presence. Do I have to do this? Of course not. The law is on the side of the pedestrian. Is it the courteous thing to do—of course.

Visit our web page at MorganHomes.com for detailed housing market analysis and I promise, no rants.

Belmont's "Green" Spring Faire

Belmont would like to get the word out about the Spring "Green" faire. This is from their promotional material on Craig's list.

"Mark your calendars for Belmont's Spring Garden Faire, Saturday, May 17th at Twin Pines Park, adjacent to Ralston and 6th Avenues in Belmont from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. This fun and information-packed day will prepare you for Spring! Hear environmentally savvy suggestions for your home and business. Be inspired by ideas from local exhibitors and industry experts that will make your Spring gardening and landscaping a success! Come and browse, then take a shuttle ride to the winners of the Beautify Belmont Awards Program along with other notable home and business landscape designs. Vote for your favorite in the garden planter competition on-site. Activities for the kids include a coloring contest and a flower planting station. Play in our jump house. Bring your appetite and check-out our give-aways! It's a great day for family fun and involvement!"

Calendar of EventsBelmont Logo

Date(s):

5/17/2008

Times:

10am - 3pm

Contact:

Parks & Recreation

Telephone:

650-595-7441

Location:

Twin Pines Park

Website:

www.belmont.gov

Come to a fun, family friendly event for everyone! Get giveaways and info about getting into spring in your garden and in general 'going greener'. We all want to make a difference and here are some ways you can! WE have ideas, vendors, expert demonstrations (like solar cooking), garden experts, silent auction for community made planter boxes and much more!

Belmont Buyers, Now's Your Chance

Dsc_3909hallmark_2007Lots of large homes are on the market in Belmont while the inventory of homes for sale is reaching a high not seen since 2003. Just 22 of the 52 homes for sale are listed under $1,000,000; while the median home currently for sale is just over 2,000 square feet, the median home in Belmont is only 1550 square feet.

And Inventory levels have hit near all time highs. There are currently 52 single family homes on the market and only twice in the last ten years has there ever been more-both times the U.S. was in a business cycle trough-the 2001 recession and again in 2003 during a mid cycle slowdown. We expect inventory level to grow even more in May and June of 2008.

In the past ten years there never has been a month with fewer sales than last month-March 2008 where Belmont had only five sales, except for the month before when there were only four sales. Normally, Belmont will have on average 23 per month; percentage-wise that equals only 18% or normal.

If you're a Belmont seller and trying to sell during the peak period to obtain the highest price that window of opportunity has already passed. If you are a buyer interested in Belmont, there's plenty to choose from and we expect favorable buying conditions to continue for at least the next year and probably well into 2010. But timing the market can be a fool's game. While waiting for home values to drop interest rates may rise, offsetting any monetary gain.

Plenty of buyers have been waiting years for an opportunity such as the current buyer friendly market conditions to purchase a home-well, now's their chance.

San MAteo County Home Buying Opportunities

The sales data for March is available on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

It's interesting to note the ten year median price trend and where we are in relation to the overall median price trend.

San Mateo County Median Price Trend-Morganhomes.com

Note that the median in home price for San Mateo County is currently below where it should be in the ten-year appreciation trend. That means prices have dropped, but it also means that prices are below historical trend levels-in other words-now is a good point in the real estate cycle to buy a home.

Could values go down further? Perhaps. But if you have been waiting for an opportune time to purchase a home or an investments property such an opportunity currently exists which hasn't been seen for years. And as with most investments which catch on. Getting in sooner rather than later has its distinct monetary advantages.