Lakes Sotheby's International Realty SHIPMAN + KOLKMAN PARTNERS

Good news in Minneapolis Real Estate world... inventory levels are falling! We've all been talking about Buyers being able to "cheery pick" the best of the homes ("best" = cheep and nice), leaving all sellers in a bind trying desperately to be the best. Well that's beginning to change...

In all price ranges above $190,000 their are fewer homes on the market today than this time last year. MAAR's Housing Supply Outlook goes into detail. That's good news, but I'd expect Average Sale Price will continue to drop, in response to the flood of deals in the below $190 range, and buyers in this range still able to "cheery pick" the best of the bunch. So, will the good news come out? Will anyone know what this means? My friends will, but I bet the major news source won't cover this.

In order to see a recovery in real estate two things need to happen inventory must come down, which we are now seeing, and secondly demand must not fall off. So we're getting the first, inventory is decreasing, how's demand doing? Not as well.

Homes sales are down across the board. Over the past 3 years Buyers have been told three times not to buy. First it was because the RE market was "correcting" (early '06). Secondly, it was the "credit crunch" and "foreclosure crisis" ('07). Now all we're hearing about is the looming recession. Anxious buyers don't buy. In light of the high anxiety level, I am impressed with how many homes sales there are. In fact, Byers I talk to are all saying it's a good time to buy. And I seeing stories to that effect in th news too.

My prediction:

• Buyers will remain cautious but healthy. Sales volume will remain level lower than last year but will continue to hold where it is, not fall further.
• Sales Prices will continue to fall, on average, and in general, This is the result of more deals in lower price ranges.
• Sales Prices in the higher price ranges will remain lower than last year, but won't drop much further. The reduction in inventory at the higher price ranges will eventually result in increased competition among Buyers, pushing prices up, and lowering time on the market.

One of the poster children for real estate and mortgage fraud in the Twin Cities has been charged...

Earlyer this week TJ Waconia was charged with one count of mail fraud in connection with a bunch of bad real estate deals. The allegations basically accuse TJ Waconia of writing bogus appraisals and mortgages in a small section of North Mpls. Of 140 real estate deals the company did in 3 North Mpls neighborhoods, 86 are currently in foreclosure. Alex Stienbeck (Behind the Mortgage) has done a GREAT job covering this story. Our local Start Trib on the Fraud Scheme.

Interesting about the charges...ONE COUNT of mail fraud!? Hopefully the feds plead this out, to pursue bigger players in this disgraceful criminal ring. Let's hope TJ's principals are singing like Maria Carey!

Linden Hills Neighborhood Council Linden Hills Business Association

This quaint, and popular, neighborhood just south of Lake Calhoun and west of Lake Harriet is bordered to the south by West 47th Street, and to the west by France avenue. Named by a developer for the linden trees and rolling terrain, was developed in the 1880s to entice home-buyers to leave downtown for cottages on Lake Calhoun and Lake Harriet.

Most of the original cottages have been replaced by a wide variety of home types. Contemporary designs, ramblers, colonials, tudors, and bungalow can all be found in Linden Hills.

Linden Hills Power and Light, a local think tank, is on a mission to educate and eventually implement an alternative energy solution for that area's business and residents. The groups actions led to the City rolling out a pilot program for source separated organic waist management.

The Lake Harriet Bandshell is a local landmark. The Bandshell's long history includes 2 fires, and a wind storm, the fourth bandshell was demolished in 1985. The current Bandshell was recently expanded to include a covered outdoor eating area.

Adding to it's historic charm The Lake Harriet-Como Streetcar runs through the neighborhood. Also know simply as the Trolley, the street cars look just like the toy train from Mr Roger's Neighborhood. This all that is left of our once extensive streetcar line, people can still ride between Lake Harriet and Lake Calhoun.

The commercial corridor can be seen in the movie Jingle All The Way starring Arnold Schwarzenegger and Phil Hartman. At 43rd and Upton you'll find wonderfull food and shopping:

• Cafe 28 -- a restaurant developed in what once was the historic Linden Hills fire station. Menu focuses on sustainable agriculture and locally grown products.
• Zumbro Cafe, a neighborhood staple, features unconventional dishes served daily.
• Rice Paper has had many "must try" recommendations by local restaurant critics. An Asian fusion menu offering delicate flavors skillfully crafted.
• The Linden Hills Co-op offers a wide array of grocery alternatives and Great Harvest Bread Company has been a landmark for years from their fresh baked cookies, breads and bars.
• Wild Rumpus Bookstore, and Wonderment offer children the chance to enjoy the neighborhood as much as their parents do.

At 44th and France stop by France 44 Deli & Market. This deli draws customers from around the city for its signature marinated chevre cheese and extensive cheese offerings from around the world. Turtle Bread Co. offers a wonderful selection of mouth-watering pastry items.

New Listings Down!

Hot on the heals of last weeks rising sales comes the news we've all been hoping for...New Listings were down 26.3% compared to the same period last year, and down 14% from last week.

New Listings are homes for sale added to the market this week. Prolonged declines in New Listing activity, combined with healthy sales activity, will eventually bring our market back into balance.

The root case of the market's recent softening is the imbalance in supply and demand. In spite of all the news stories, there is one fundamental issue, over supply. The result, Sellers must compete to sell their homes, and Buyer's choose the best homes offered at significant values.

Listing activity has been consistently lower all year, this weeks activity is the lowest yet. Sales activity was up from last week, but remains weaker than the same period last year.

While this is encouraging news, we're not out of the weedsyet. Both sharper declines in supply, AND increased sales activity are necessary before we return to a "Sellers Market".

Kenny Neighborhood Association

Tucked safely into the corner of Lyndale Ave and the Crosstown (Hwy 62) Kenny Neighborhood is a quite residential area of Southwest Mpls. It is bordered by Highway 62, 54th Street, Lyndale Avenue, and the alley between Knox and Logan avenues south. Deviating slightly from the city's grid plan Kenny's charm is accented by curving streets, and the occasional hill.

The dominate features are its park and its elementary school, which were named for Sister Elizabeth Kenny, an Australian nurse who a treatmant for polio, and Grass Lake, a small but picturesque pond that attracts waterfolw and hosts it's share of pond hockey games.

Kennys homes were mostly built in the 1940s or later and are generally larger than the houses in adjacent neighborhoods such as Armatage and Windom. Origionally the Bachman family farm, of Bachman's garden center, occpied most of the area. It was sold in 1950's and homes were developed then. Occasinally new construction pops up here, but most of the area's remodeling takes the form of small additions and renovations.