Lynn Krogseng

Are we there yet?

The current inventory for Vancouver, Washington homes appears to be about 12.7 months worth (meaning, at current rate of sales, and no new homes coming on the market, it would take 12.7 months to sell everything available today). This is the third month in a row. I've seen pretty minimal movement in the ratio of active homes to pending sales, so could this mean bottom of the market? Alas, that's probably more wishful thinking than anything. At least we are nearing the date when people can finally stop holding off 'until after the election'. And perhaps that's what that stall is - people just waiting.

The local paper, The Columbian has a little factoid showing that the number of closed sales (actually they said sales - I'm assuming closed) in September of 2008 (478) is about 1/3 of the number of sales for September 2005 (1284). Ironic isn't it? We have all-time excellent buying opportunities with low prices, low rates, low demand, and nobody's buying! Look, this is an excellent opportunity to get your family 'in the Trump Way' - times like these are when fortunes are started!

Have a home to sell before you buy? Look at what your options are - perhaps this is the time to let go of your old home for the chance to buy the new home at a substantial discount. Perhaps this is the time to acquire your next home and rent out your current home? Maybe you're in a position to carry the loan on your current home? Everyone's situation is different, and it's important to look at the possibilities and consequences equally.

My advice to sellers right now, is if it's been on the market 30 days and you don't have an offer, DROP THAT PRICE. If you're a buyer - I'm not going to say 'wait'; I'm going to say, WATCH

THOSE INTEREST RATES, and be ready to act!

Lynn Krogseng

Monday Market Musings

This Monday there is a slight increase in number of homes on the market. There're 544 homes in pending status today and 298 of those are at or under the $250,000 price mark. Of the 3873 that are available for sale, 1783 are in the price under $250,000. Recent statistics from a local title company indicated new homes sales are moving best in the $225,000 - 250,000 range. Average price per square foot of these new homes is $129, roughly.

I estimate the homes for sale that are identified as 'short sale' are about 600, and bank owned are about 66. This is actually a tough number to track precisely, so I'm stressing this is an estimate. Consider then that about 15% are short sale, 1.5% are bank owned. I think these percentages are particularly interesting because I see often that someone has a buyer that 'only wants short sale' or bank owned. That's pretty limited parameters - just 15% of the homes available? Not to mention the particularly onerous process of working a short sale through the system...Even if we aren't at 50% bank owned, there are great values out there right now, so get buying!

Green certification for you? Vancouver is sporting 158 homes with green certification today. Manor and New Traditions have the bulk of the homes available, but their are more than a dozen different builders that have green certified homes. Call me and lets go see them!

Walking Vancouver, Washington

Last month I was a volunteer 'trail counter' for Vancouver Parks and Recreation. It was a great experience, especially since the weather was great and my fellow volunteer is one of my personal local heroes. I spent a couple of hours learning more of her interesting life and talked to happy people doing healthy things - how great is that?

So, here's what the trail count reavealed (this was from multiple time periods, multiple locations):
Total Counted: 1003 Weekday Counted: 412 Weekend Counted: 591
Total Bikes: 439 Weekday Bikes: 132 Weekend Bikes: 307
Total Peds: 530 Weekday Peds: 264 Weekend Peds: 266
Total Others: 34 Weekday Others: 16 Weekend Others: 18

% Trail Usage By Time
Weekday Weekend
4-4:15 5% 12-12:15 11%
4:15-4:30 5% 12:15-12:30 7%
4:30-4:45 5% 12:30-12:45 9%
4:45-5 5% 12:45-1 7%
5-5:15 4% 1-1:15 8%
5:15-5:30 5% 1:15-1:30 6%
5:30-5:45 7% 1:30-1:45 5%
5:45-6 5% 1:45-2 5%

Numbers - I love the usefulness of numbers! - show that we have pretty level usage during the day, and slightly heavier on weekends. Most (92%) were out for exercise. The full report will be available through Vancouver Parks and Rec; I know that there are great plans for making the trails more connected so that you can actually get one place to another (even Ridgefield to Camas in a long view). Being a strong proponent of walkable communities, I'm really pleased to know the local government is interested in giving us more walkways. Now if we could just get the developers and zoning people to create more walkable and less car-dependent communities...

When you are ready to find 'walkable Vancouver', call me!

Lynn Krogseng

Green at what price?

How much more are you willing to pay to have a green certification for your home? Or to have a walkable location? Green and walkable?

Certainly if you're not green leaning the answer is nothing. But if you are concerned about having a less detrimental impact on the environment, or lower fuel and heating, or healthier indoor air quality, then what are you willing to pay if you have to pay more? Is it a percentage or a flat dollar fee?

I can take a stab at numbers - how much more are people actually paying for green certified homes, if they are paying more - but what I can't see is the buyer's actual motivation. Questions like 'did the buyers buy because they liked the floor plan and workmanship or did they buy because of the EA or Energy Star certification? Maybe they bought because of walkability...

There was a recent news article (in Portland Tribune) I read that suggested that homes that were within a couple of blocks of a New Seasons specialty store or a neighborhood theatre were commanding a 20% premium over similar homes without those businesses. Hmmm...something to think about. Frankly, I'd question whether it is just the store or theatre or is it a result of a myriad other factors of walkable community?

Unfortunately for Vancouver, Washington, the Whole Foods store here moved from a kind-of walkable location to a car-dependent location. I understand those eastsiders are probably more affluent and likely to buy, but the original location always seemed busy too. I wonder what that move might have done to the local home values? I wonder what the move suggests about changing demographics in our neighborhoods? So many questions, so much real estate!

Monday Market Musing

Checking the general market numbers, looks like sales are slowing a bit since June. Homes for sale number about 7 active to every 1 pending. This is a change from a 5 to 1 ratio in June. It's a pretty steady decline, week by week. Interestingly enough, the under $200,000 range of home sales seems to be slowing (from 5 active to 1 pending to current 6 to 1 ratio) more. Does this suggest that sales stalled there or did enough homes just above $200,000 take price reductions to that price under $200K price point? Mostly it won't matter - a greater supply will cause downward pressure on the prices.

If you're looking for green-certified homes in Vancouver area, we've got about 140 of them currently. Prices range from $169,900 to $879,900. The bulk of these are under construction or recently completed. Since the active to pending ratio is 9 to 1, you probably have some additional bargaining power. Some of these homes have the added benefit of actually having a reasonable walkscore.

If you're wanting a home that helps you live more lightly on the earth, don't forget the inherent greenness of occupying an existing home that is in a walkable community.

So - with such a great opportunity to buy - what are you waiting for? Let's talk!