Bill Hitchcock

Coastal Flooding and the Effects of Wind

By: Bill Hitchcock

One of the most common questions I am asked about an area or property along the coast of North Carolina is, "Has it ever flooded here?".

The short answer is "Yes!". At some point in time, since the beginning of time anywhere coastal North Carolina has been underwater. But that's not what this article is about.

One of the main causes for flooding is wind. What area gets flooded will depend on the direction of the wind and its strength. Unfortunately, most folks just think in terms of wind strength and not wind direction.

Here's why the direction of the wind is so important. The coast of North Carolina, including the inner banks and outer banks has beaches and rivers and sounds that face all directions. If, for example we have a strong northerly wind this will help to push water from the north towards the southand up on and in to beaches, rivers and creeks facing north. The map below highlights my point.

Now if the wind is coming hard out of the south then the opposing (on the north side) beaches and rivers would have waters pushed in.

If the wind is in your face and you are facing water then the water is being pushed towards you. But-If you have the wind at your back and you are facing water then the waters will be pushed away from you.

I once owned a piece of waterfront property on Bogue Sound that faced south. One year we had a hurricane that brough 100mph winds out of the north. I was left high and dry while across the sound on Bogue Banks had severe flooding.

Storms and hurricanes come from all different directions. The coast of North Carolina faces all different directions. Each storm is different and will create a different effect. This is one of the reasons that makes responding to the question about flooding so difficult.

Saltwater Catch

Hitchcock Realty

Crystal Coast Home Sales and Inventory Report

Bill Hitchcock

Hitchcock Realty

A picture is worth a thousands words and sometimes a graph is too! It becomes very evident with a visual display as to where the Carteret County, Cape Lookout, Swansboro market has been and where it is right now.

Sales were the highest when inventory was the lowest. Over 3-4 year period everything inverted. Except for price of course! But that's a subject for a future blog!

Bill Hitchcock

Hitchcock Realty

Saltwater Catch

To buy or not to buy, that is the question!

By: Bill Hitchcock

Is now a good time to buy real estate? That is the most common question and hotly debated subject of the day. Only 3% of all homes listed this past January Along the Crystal Coast actually sold. Average sales for that month are around 15%. During 2005, the biggest sales year ever here had January sales at 20%.

So with sales so poor, does that mean it's the wrong time to purchase real estate?

I came up with a saying many years ago that best describes buyers and what they tend to do wrong. "Buyers buy when all the other buyers are buying which is the worst time to buy". Yep, it's a brain twisting saying but happens to be very accurate.

....Read more

Price, interest rates & sales continue to drop

Time for William Shatner to Negotiate?

By: Bill Hitchcock

The Crystal Coast real estate market continues to be fantastic-If you are a buyer! The current average sold price of a Crystal Coast home is at $211K. This is averaging the past 30 days and this price is 16% less than the same time period last year. It is 18% less when compared to the 30 day time period before that.

Declining prices generally jump start sales, but not in this case. Sales are off by 31% when compared to last year and down 25% when compared to the month before. And although we have seen a decline in inventory (down 8%) we still have the second all time highest level of inventory to choose from.

According to Bankrate.com the average 30 year mortgage interest rate being offered up in North Carolina Thursday (12/11) was 5.71%. I received an e-mail today from one of our local Crystal Coast lenders that are offering rates as low as 4.75% with no points. As a caveat-This particular lender requires a minimum of a 720 credit score.

Since price, interest rates and sales continue to drop-Does this mean you should wait to buy? Well let me ask you a question- When are one or all three going to rise again? Oops! Trick question-No one knows for sure. This I can tell you-All three-price, rates and sales- are at historic lows. But there is one variable no one ever seems to factor into the equation-Negotiations. Yep-It's time to do your best William Shatner Priceline Negotiator bit with the seller. But please keep in mind that negotiating does not mean offering up some unwarranted price that is ridiculously low. I have seen that back fire on the buyer by offending the seller and then the seller refusing anything but full offer.

The point I am trying to make is this. Most folks don't realize the great opportunity that the current market sometimes offers. Most folks keep their eyes fixed on mortgage rates and totally miss the golden opportunity of the current prices and the great potential to negotiate that price and terms to their benefit.

Great News!

Yes-I'm talking great real estate news!

By: Bill Hitchcock

(Note: The Crystal Coast area is located betwen Hatteras and Wilmington, NC)

I thought it would be interesting to compare each month's sales to it's corresponding month from the year before. What I discovered was that as of October 30, three months this year have had the same amount of sales as in 2007. (OK-I fudged a little bit. August 2007 sold 117 homes and in 2008 it was 116)

How significant is this?? Very significant!!. Sales have been on the decline along the Crystal Coast ever since the spike year of 2005. This is the first time that any month, let alone 3 months have not been in decline when compared to the same month the year prior. This is highly significant!

The only way the Crystal Coast real estate market has been able to chip away at the glut of inventory has been to reduce the amount of new inventory coming on the market. Trust me-That isn't the real estate broker's doings for they still have a "list and sell, list and sell" mentality. It is the market place righting itself.

Fortunately in 2008 every month has seen a decline of new inventory coming on the market

Probably by now some of you are wondering if I really am a real estate broker with all of the above "stuff" I have been writing about. But the reality of the situation is inventory has been at historic highs, sales at historic lows and new on market have outpaced sales by 3 to 1.

Now, finally in 2008 we have had positive sales and new inventory on market have waned greatly. These two aspects created something I haven't seen in years and is the very thing we have desperately needed-A decline in over-all inventory.

This past September (and for the very first time!) showed over-all inventory less than the year before. A-Men! In fact, right now at this very moment we have almost exactly the same amount of inventory on market as we did the first day of the year! Say it again: A-Men!

Are we out of the woods yet? No. Are the signs of improvement a fluke, some unaccountable phenom? No to that too. As my father use to say, "It takes a long time to turn a battleship around in the water" Which was a strange thing for him to say because he was in the Air Force-But the point he was making is clear. It takes time for things to turn around. Especially big things like real estate markets.

In my opinion (and I stress, "opinion") we will see strong signs of improvement at the end of 1rst. Qtr. of 2009 and blossoming during the 2nd Qtr. Just be forewarned-Winter time along the coast of NC is slow. It always has been and it always will be. But don't let the normal ebb of the area fool you into thinking that improvements are not underway.

Bill Hitchcock

Crystal Coast Real Estate Television

http://www.crystalcoastrealestatetv.com

Hitchcock Realty

http://www.hitchcockrealty.net

Bill Hitchcock

http://www.billhitchcock.net