Bill Williams

The Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho is bringing their 2009 Parade of Homes to the Treasure Valley beginning Saturday April 25th and running through May 10th. Weekday hours are 5PM to 8PM, Fridays are 3PM to 8PM, and Saturday and Sunday hours are Noon to 8PM. This year the Parade of Homes is FREE! No tickets are required.

Reflecting the slower housing market, there are just 17 new homes on the Parade this year, but they are homes presented by many of the Valley's best builders including Tahoe Homes, The Marrs Company, Capitol Building, Brighton Homes, Crocker homes, Borup Construction, James Clyde Custom Homes, Boise Hunter Homes, Berkeley Building Company, Roth Homes, Flynner Homes, and Eric Evans Construction.

There is an excellent clickable tour map online at the BCA website. You can also click through to previews of each home.

I just got my latest newsletter out, and here is the most recent real estate update I sent to my friends and past clients...

As expected, January usually sets the low mark for the year for Ada County home sales and that is true again for 2009. Single Family Homes sold in January were a meager 237, a 23% decline from January 2008. Remember that I mentioned in the December newsletter that last year we started the year with a 38% decline, so you know I am looking for bright spots. Traffic at Open Houses and individual showings have both been lower than we've been used to, although with the low interest rates of the last couple weeks that is changing.

One sign of that is the increasing number of contracts Pending. Currently there are 527 homes under contract which is a big jump from the 459 we started the year with. One of my Title company contacts told me that they saw a number of sales close with loans at rates below 5% a week or so ago (although the rates have again gone back over 5% for now). Rates at that really historic low make it easy for some to make the decision to buy. And considering that the inventory of active listings hasn't changed from January's 3635, perhaps we are in a calmer place in our market.

One interesting thing the data shows is that the sales are being made in a bit lower price level in the market. Last year's median price in January was $217,500, while this year it was $180,000. This is a 17% decline year over year. While that implies lower prices, it also more strongly indicates that buyers are working in the lower levels of the market. The "expensive new construction boom" we had two and three years ago is over, so those sales don't affect our numbers as strongly as they did then. Another way to show that is to see that of the sales in January this year, 60% of them were homes priced below $200,000. Last January only 40% of the homes sold were below $200,000, and in 2007 it was barely 36%. That is quite a market change! And one last tidbit, it should come as no surprise to know the length of time on market has increased from 73 in 2008 to 90 days this year, according to MLS figures.

We don't know what 2009 will bring, but if you plan to buy or sell this year and I can be of service to you, please call me. And if not you, I would love your referral for a friend.
Thanks! Bill (208) 921-9512

"Deck the horse with boughs of holly
Fa la la la lah..."

The annual Boise Christmas Parade takes place Saturday November 29th in downtown Boise. The parade begins at 9:45AM, starting from the Morrison Center and proceeding north down Capitol Boulevard, west on Battery Street, then south on 9th to the finish on University Drive. This is a wonderful holiday parade featuring all of the things the big television parades lack, including antique cars, lots of local horse and rodeo groups, local businesses, and school marching bands. The weather promises to be clear and bright, and cold, so dress the kids warmly, bring a thermos, and turn out for a great old fashioned style holiday parade. This is one of those quality of life events that get Boise on so many "top places" lists.

In September we saw an increase in closed sales over the year before. It was a situation that the local and national papers heralded as very good news for the troubled housing market. I even heard one local radio real estate show suggest we'd see a strong rebound in October, November, and December. I warned that the number could also be due to the big mortgage stumble in August of 2007. So, how did we come out in October? Did we pass the bottom, or was it just a hiccup?

Ada County home sales for October come in at 409 for Single Family homes (no acreage, condos, mobiles, or townhomes). Last year in October there were 463 sales. That is a 12% drop, and puts us back on the track of declining sales we've been on all year long. The economy is on many minds, and mortgage rates rose a bit at the beginning of the month of November, although they have come back in the last few days. Anecdotally, many agents at the beginning of the month had reported fewer showings and less urgency in their buyer clients. It is a difficult time if you are a seller who has to move, or you're trying to sell a home in a hurry. Plan on being super clean and priced very competitively.

One bright spot in the market is the continuing decline in inventory. Currently there are 4175 Single Family homes on the market in Ada County. Last year at this time there were nearly 4500 active listings. Pending sales are slightly lower this year compared to the number we saw last year, with 457 contracts waiting to close right now. So with inventory declining, pendings remaining firm, and the rate of decline easing up from the beginning of the year is it time to join radio-guy and call the bottom? No. But it isn't the end of the world either. In fact, prices in the Treasure Valley are more affordable than they have been in a couple of years. If you are a buyer, be happy, and go shopping.

If you're a seller though, you need to be aware that we are still considering this a "declining market". Granted, the Treasure Valley area isn't seeing the same degree of price declines other markets have seen. According to the Idaho Business Review, our area is showing less than half the decline the National numbers show. "Nationally, the October median existing-home price is down 17.3 percent from its 2008 high in June, from $215,100 to $183,300, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In Ada County, prices declined in that same period from a median of $209,900 to $195,400, or just 7.6 percent, according to data from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service." Other data providers suggest our rate of decline could be as high as 1% per month.

Bottom line if you're a seller? Believe what your Realtor tells you about the market price your home can be expected to bring today. The old trick of pricing it a little high and letting the market reach up to get you has not worked in years, yet we continue to see it. If the goal is to sell the property, and if you really must move on, then price it where it will sell. There is no magic in this market, and there are no agents who can really sell your property for what it might have gotten last year, or what you "need", or what you "know it's worth". Meet the market on its terms and you will be successful in selling your home.

Meridian Dairy Days is coming at the end of this week, June 18th through the 21st, highlighted by the parade on Friday evening. This is truly one of our best small town events here in Meridian, and the weather looks like it's going to be perfect. Last year there were thousands of folks who turned out to see the parade, which features tractors, horses and riders, a number of very creative floats, the cheer squads , bands, and teams from the local schools, lots of classic cars, and a few racing cars from Meridian Speedway. A great time for everyone, celebrating our dairy heritage, and our small town Idaho community.

The parade stages on Watertower, and gets started at 7pm, running North down Main Street, then back up 2 1/2 and 3rd Streets. Come early, pick your spot, and remember to cheer for the Meridian Lions and the Rodeo Queens.

There will also be a carnival at Storey Park from Wednesday through Saturday, and the Meridian Chamber's Pancake Feed returns Thursday evening beginning at 5pm with a symphony to follow. Friday night also marks the start of an arts and crafts fair featuring 80 vendors.

The Dairy Days celebration wouldn't be complete without cows and goats, so on Saturday, all day, there will be a cow and goat show, along with a number of educational exhibits for everyone to enjoy. See the Chamber of Commerce website for more info. See you there!