Brian Thomas

I had an interesting chat with one of our Agents recently. She mentioned that many of our sellers in the upper-tier price point are seeing the current strength of the Dow as a sign that their home will probably fetch more in the early part of next year. Academically speaking, there is a belief that there is a direct correlation between the housing market and the stock market. But from an analytical standpoint, although the stock market and the housing market correlate well, there is a variable time lag. The time lag between housing underperformance and stock market performance can vary widely. The average is 18 months.

What we're seeing, in some instances, is that some of the upper-tier clients are saying no to potential deals as they think if they wait another four to six months (thanks to the stock market's recent gains) they may get more for their home. And while I understand the reasoning, I would caution sellers on this strategy. First, what we know is that in a "normal" market (of which this market is anything but), the average lag time between the two is 18 months (not four to six months). It's also important to point out that we probably aren't out of the woods as it relates to the volatility in the stock market. Many analysts are suggesting that our recovery will be "W" shaped rather than "V" so we may be looking at more changes ahead.

So while I understand the logic, I would caution sellers on this strategy and would ask them to focus less on the stock market and more on the level of supply and demand in their market and in their neighborhoods. In most markets, the upper-tier price point remains relatively soft so sellers should consider most deals that are presented to them. That's not to say buyers should be throwing out unrealistic offers. The real story here is that across the board we're starting to see increases in interest and buyer activity so sellers may want to consider taking advantage of that interest...before it's too late.

For those who are focused on the stock market, my best advice to you is to look at it more as an indicator for the economy as a whole. With the DOW closing Thursday at just over 9,300, it may not be making housing prices go up, but it may mean that the recession is subsiding which is good news for us all.

Now let's take a look at this week in real estate:

• Boulder/Longmont-The Boulder office reported small but steady increases in all the Boulder county market numbers last week. Listings were up by 12%, under contracts up by 17% (not bad) and showings up by 15%. Two good things to note here, although showings are up, under contracts are up by a higher number. Agents are also seeing no "end of summer" drop off of buyers yet. It's very unusual to see showings increasing as we approach September. The Longmont office reports showing activity continues to increase. The large increase in showing activity did translate into deals being written. Twice as many offers were accepted this week over last week. Listings also took a big rise. We are seeing some good listings going on the market that are not short sales or foreclosures. The upper end market still needs help. The $8000 credit for 1st time buyers needs to have a matching program for the upper end market to get it moving too. Loan issues continue to bring problems. We need at least 30 days to make it happen - 45 days to close is much more realistic for all.
• Evergreen/Conifer-Evergreen reported we had a total of two new listings for the week. Three listings went under contract including one builder spec. One local buyer, one from Denver and one Texas. Three buyers went under contract, two local one one from Oregon. Three were a total of 81 showings during the week. The week was close to normal level for peak season. The majority of activity in three different price points - $200,000 to $250,000 for 1st time buyers and investors. The $300,000 to $500,000 is strong and recent strong activity in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range. Conifer reports we had two new listings during the week. One listing went under contract - short sale pending bank approval. Showing activity increased to thirty-three during the week although that's still below normal levels for this time of year.
• Denver Central - We are seeing an increase in higher priced homes going on the market and receiving offers which is a positive sign. The Denver real estate market continues to get positive national and local press each week. We're encouraged and excited about the future of real estate in Denver. We've seen an increase in showings the first two weeks of August and it's tracking better than July for showings. Our August 2009 numbers are outpacing those of last year. More buyers are taking advantage of the $8000 tax credit with the deadline fast approaching. We're seeing appreciation of home prices in several neighborhoods. The lower-end market has certainly shifted to s sellers market with properties moving quickly. Those that are priced aggressively are seeing multiple offer situations. We're also seeing an increase in cash offers on homes in the area. Many in the lower end go under contract within days of being placed on the market. The high-end market continues to be sluggish.
• Devonshire- We seem to be in the August "hurry and take a family vacation" or "get ready for school" days. Showing activity is steady but both sellers and buyers are distracted with other activities. We are encouraging reevaluation of home prices, making price adjustments as necessary & freshening up both the interior & exterior of homes. September is always a good month for us at Devonshire as our clients are ready to move forward with purchases so they can be settled before the holidays. Mortgage rates are still attractive and consumer confidence seems to be sending somewhat of a positive message. We are feeling very positive about the remainder of 2009 and look forward to 2010.
• Douglas County-Our Southwest Metro office reports we had a great week of showings. Open houses were very good this past week and we're seeing a steady increase of sellers ready to list their homes. Buyers, especially first time ones are looking to buy but the inventory is very low in the $250,000 range. There has been steady activity in homes priced below $350,000. We're experiencing a slight increase in the $350,000 to $450,000 range. We feel as an office that the public is ready to move forward to either purchase or sell a home. The Agents are getting the message to their clients/sphere that the $8000 tax credit needs to be used before December 1, 2009. The news on local TV channels has been positive and this has been a good tool to use on sellers & buyers.
• El Paso County-Colorado Springs reports although sales activity has slowed down slightly, we still see a lot of activity on our listings which is also reflected by the strong increase in showings. There is some uncertainty about some military personal relocating from Texas to Ft. Carson. This relocation has been approved but now delayed after intervention from politicians in Texas.
• Larimer County-The Fort Collins/Loveland offices reported the end of summer lull is here and families are getting the kids ready for school and the college students are rolling in from a nice summer break. Showings were down dramatically last week and this is to be expected based on the time of year. The good news is that there are still plenty of great homes to choose from and well priced homes are moving. Ft. Collins currently has over 1500 single family homes and Loveland offers 1000 plus homes. Come out and see the inventory. You won't be disappointed. It's hard to believe but we only have about 3 1/2 months left to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit. It is unclear whether or not this program will be extended so take advantage of it while you can!
• North Metro-The North Metro office is humming with activity. We just received a letter from Bruce Zipf, President & CEO of NRT, that our office is in the Top 20% of offices for the 2nd quarter of this year. The Agents deserve this recognition as their activity continues to be very high. In the past month we've seen the price of our new listings increase from $275,000 to a current average of $325,000. Showings are picking up on homes priced over $250,000. We've put several homes under contract in the $400,000 to $650,000 range which is a recent change in our market.
• Parker-Our listing inventory stays steady and although the showing activity has dropped slightly over the last week, sales activity has gone up consistently over the last few months. Our closed transactions were up over 50% last month year over year and we are up 15% year to date compared to last year. Douglas County was just rated #5 in the country for job growth and the towns of Parker and Castle Rock are #3 & #4 in most desirable places to live!
• Southeast Metro-The SE Metro office is experiencing a slight decrease in showing activity which can be attributed to the start of the school year for the surrounding districts. Our average days on market for listings is steady at 79 days and we are averaging 25 showings before a property goes under contract. Inventory continues to drop and there continues to be a shortage of desirable properties below $250,000. Luxury properties are seeing additional traffic as 10% of our Previews properties are currently under contract.
• West Lakewood-The West office is seeing more sales in the over $300,000 price range. Low appraisals are becoming less of a problem. If a buyer wants to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit, they should act now! Do not wait! There is a shortage of inventory in these price ranges.

This week I'll leave you with a few good articles of note:

•· Mortgage Applications Increase In Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Mortgage Bankers Association

•· Optimism Grips Homeowners: 81% Think Home's Value Will Increase Or Stay Same In Next 6 Months; RISMedia

•· Are New Home Prices, Starts And Sales Rates Nearing Bottom?; RISMedia

Forbes Magazine released this week its "In Depth: Best Cities to Buy a Home" feature in which the magazine highlights cities with the best real estate deals. Click here to access the article: http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/22/cities-deals-home-lifestyle-real-estate-home-buying.html. Among other large cities, Denver was listed with the magazine noting that "While the majority of the nation's housing markets are still working toward a bottom, some cities are boasting fundamentals that make them good places to buy a home now." In addition to Denver, Los Angeles, Boston, Phoenix and San Diego were listed.

To determine which cities feature the best real estate deals, the magazine "looked at three sets of data in the March 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, distributed by Radar Logic Incorporated, a New York-based derivatives firm. It looks at the market fundamentals in the country's 25 most populated metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs or metros), geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget used by federal agencies in collecting, tabulating and publishing federal statistics. First, we examined the number of ZIP codes with 25% of the area's sales to determine those in which activity is most evenly distributed. Next, we examined increase and decrease in price per square footage to determine where market value is the highest. Last, we looked at transaction rates in each city to determine where the housing markets are most active. We scored each city by category, and then combined the scores to determine the final ranking."

Here's what the article reported:

"1. Denver, Colo.
PPSF Increase or Decrease
March 2009 vs. Feb. 2009: 5.7%
Transaction Increase or Decrease
March 2009 vs. March 2008: -8.4%
Percentage of ZIP Codes with 25% of Sales: 25%"

Also this week, the National Association of Realtors released its existing home sales report which noted that existing home sales rose for the second straight month in May, signaling low prices and incentives are attracting buyers.

NAR says existing home sales, including single family homes, condos and coops rose 2.4 percent in May. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in existing home sales since September 2005.

Sales of existing homes rose for the second straight month in May, signaling low prices and incentives are attracting buyers.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun had this to say, "Historically low mortgage rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates. First time buyers are also being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit which is helping to absorb inventory."

The numbers could be even better if it weren't for poor appraisals. While pending sales of existing homes-those with signed contracts but not closed-indicate stronger activity, some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan, said Yun.

Locally we made some great headlines this week, especially with the Denver Business Journal's story headlined "Home prices in mountain states up 1.3% outpacing nation."

The article reported, "Housing prices in Colorado and other mountain states rose 1.3 percent in April from the previous month, the biggest increase of any region of the nation, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported Tuesday."

And with that great news in tow, let's take a look at this week in real estate:

• Boulder/Longmont-The Boulder/Broomfield county markets continue to show a drop in new listings, with numbers down about 20% from the week before. Sales, however have shown a slight increase this week, about 2%. A quick check of price reductions in the area show 572 so far this month in Broomfield and Boulder counties! Expired listings only totaled 47 and that includes the last day of May. Great new stats for our side: If you sold a house under $750,000 with CBRB in Boulder county this year compared to the rest of the MLS, you averaged 13 fewer days before contract and $7989 more in your pocket! Our Longmont office reports buyers seem to be confused these days. Some are waiting for interest rates to drop and some are waiting for prices to drop. News that the housing market is local seems to be getting out but it might be adding to the overall confusion in the market. First time buyers are the main thrust of our sales. We have had some higher priced homes sell but homes under $250,000 are still selling fast. Now is a great time to get into the investor market. Investors are not looking to "flip" the homes but are looking for the longer term. The rental market is strong in Longmont. Summer weather has finally arrived, making it pleasant to show homes in the evenings.
• Evergreen/Conifer-Our Evergreen office reported we had a total of five new listings for the week. Seven listings went under contract and one buyer went under contract. There was one multiple offer situation for a $208,000 SFH in Wheat Ridge. One listing went under contract in five days after only two showings, a $425,000 SFH in Evergreen. We had a total of 81 showings during the week which is close to normal level for peak season. The majority of activity occurred in three different price points, $200,000 to $250,000 (mostly first time buyers and investors), $300,000 to $350,000 and some recent strong activity in the $500,000 to $750,000 range. Our Conifer office reports we had four listings go under contract during the week, one of which was a bank REO. One buyer went under contract during the week. There were a total of 42 showings for the week and activity continues to improve.
• Denver Central-Housing inventory continues to drop in the Denver area and for the fourth consecutive month homes sold in the metro area went for less than $200,000 and 28% were in the $200,000 to $300,000 range with those under $200,00 selling very quickly.
• Devonshire-Showings have been very consistent this week. There is a definite feeling of increased activity and lots of contracts being written and accepted. Appraisal issues are still rampant, with multiple appraisals being asked for at the last minute before closing. We are advising Agents to write contracts with 45 day closings where possible to allow for a smooth transaction. Buyers are excited to get into their new homes and open houses are busy in many areas. Activity may slow down a bit with the 4th of July upon us.
• Douglas County-Our Southwest Metro office reports we had another week of great showings. Father's Day was our only slow day. We had six properties with multiple contracts and our Agents are finding they are competing with multiple offers on properties they are writing on for their buyers. Open houses were slow this past weekend however floor was very good. Two Agents picked up buyers from their floor calls. We are still seeing very good activity on homes priced under $350,000. We have lots of buyers wanting to take advantage of the $8000.00 tax credit and I believe that the interest rates going up has also helped get buyers off the fence.
• El Paso County-No information reported.
• Larimer County-Our Fort Collins/Loveland office reports things are looking good in the Northern Colorado real estate market. We are seeing homes moving pretty quickly that are priced at market and multiple offers on short sale and bank owned properties that are priced 5-10% below market. Summer began on Sunday and inventory has increased this week as the summer selling season starts to collect steam. First time home buyers are still the primary home shoppers in the market and are gobbling up the lower priced inventory in search of the American dream. Appraisals are still an issue as Agents, lenders and appraisers learn to work together within the confines of the HVCC. It is still an amazing time to buy and interest rates are still near the lowest they've been in the last 50 years.
• North Metro-Activity abounds in the North Metro area. We have put 53 homes on the market this month so far. Average days on market is less than 60 when the property is well priced. The average sales price is around $273,000. The upper end market (million plus) continues to show slow movement unless the home is located in a new build subdivision. Numerous floor calls are coming into the office on our listings and appointments from these calls are increasing. We're beginning to experience buyer calls on floor looking for homes in the $600,000+ range. Relocation buyers are also abundant & increasing in our area. We continue to see a lot of short sale situations.
• Parker-After two very busy weeks, activity has slowed down slightly. The listing inventory specifically in the lower to mid price range keeps decreasing steadily which indicates that the trend for declining values could reverse soon. The upper end market (above $600,000) is still very slow and it will take a while to recover. Agents are very busy staying in touch and keeping clients informed about current market conditions while their business is up year over year!
• Southeast Metro-Traffic continues to increase at our listings. Multiple offer situations are almost a guaranteed with properties priced below $250,000. Luxury properties are also seeing increased traffic and we currently have nine luxury homes under contract. Our success story of the week: One of our Agents had a listing for three years that went under contract and closed in June!
• West Lakewood-Numerous sales are having appraisal problems. Closed short sales and bank owned properties are affecting the appraised prices. We are seeing increased activity in the above $400,000 price range.

One potential challenge that may begin affecting our market is the rise in interest rates. I came across this CNNMoney.com article which explains why interest rates are on the rise: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/19/news/economy/higher_inflation.fortune/index.htm. At this point, what we are seeing is the recent uptick is causing many fence sitting buyers to get off the fence and get in the market and in all likelihood that is a very good idea. We probably won't see interest rates as low as they have been for at least another 20-30 years.


Brian L. Thomas

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Colorado

In the current housing market; specifically in the resale homes, it takes more than dropping a sign in the front yard and proclaiming, "Come one, come all. Buy this home!" The keys to a successful home sale are price and salability. Price is pretty self explanatory on the surface; but I'll get into the details. Salability is the ability to be sold. Again I will cover the details.

You will find, in this current buyer's market (I'm speaking generally about the nation and specifically about the Denver, Colorado metro area) that circumstances have to be close to perfect to sell a home. Buyers and Sellers will get what they are looking for out of the transaction when everything meets their needs and/or desires. So many homes are on the market right now in varying conditions. You have the foreclosure properties; which may be missing from a toilet and range to all of the cabinets, doors, fixtures and furnace. The short sale; which is a deal that the homeowner makes with the lender to sell the home for less than what is owed. (see my article titled "Foreclosure May Not Be Your Only Option") Shortsale properties could be in complete disrepair all the way up to show home condition. And you have the normal resale home. Someone is selling their home to move up, move down, relocate, retire or any number of reasons. Usually these homes are in great condition; maybe only needing a touch up or repair here and there. They have equity enough to sell their home and are not in dire straights to get it sold. So what's the difference? Motivation.

This article is directed toward the homeowner that is motivated to sell their home. For whatever reason, you want to sell your home for as much as you can get out of it.

First, you have to get people in to see your home - price. Then the prospective buyers have to want to buy your home as opposed to another one down the street - salability.

Price. Without the price being set correctly, your home will never be seen. It has to be competitive with the other homes of comparable size, location and style. I don't care if you know for a fact that the house down the street is a pile of junk; if you price yours too much above that one, yours will not seem attractive to anyone. Buyer agents are very customer oriented. If they think they can get their buyer a deal, they'll go for it every time. Example: the average price in your neighborhood is $250,000; you have the best house on the block so you feel your house is worth $260,000. Guess what? The house down the street with the same square footage and floor plan as yours that needs a new lawn, a roof, some paint and carpet is being sold for $225,000! You are $35,000 higher than the "junk house" down the street! How much grass seed, shingles, paint and carpet could you buy for $35,000? Probably enough for your home and have some money left over to buy a barbeque pit, some patio furniture, and maybe a new television among other things. I'm not recommending that anyone "under" price their home to get it sold. I am saying, listen to your Realtor, they are the professionals and they know what they are doing.

Salability. Your home has to be in show home condition to attract people to put in an offer. They need to picture themselves moving right in and relaxing that evening, knowing that they just bought a jewel. I use an interior designer; not to drastically change your home, but to assist you in organizing and arranging what you already have to make appealing to buyers. The purpose of the designer is to help you depersonalize your home from being YOUR home and setting it up to potentially be someone else's home. You would be amazed at the difference.

So here you have it; price your home to be competitive using a Realtor, use a professional to help make your home look the best it can be, and set yourself up to win. You will be glad you did.

I get it. I have been there. You are dangerously behind in your mortgage payments and you can't seem to catch up. You're getting the letters and phone calls that lead you to believe that you have no other option. Foreclosure seems eminent. That's not necessarily the case.

The mortgage company doesn't want to own your home anymore than you want to lose it. In the current Real Estate market, (definitely here in the Denver Colorado area) it seems that this scenario is more common than believable. The home prices dropped; an A.R.M. (adjustable rate mortgage) adjusts to a higher rate; the new payment is now unaffordable; refinancing is out of the question because of credit status changes; the owner finds that they owe more than they can realistically sell it for. What now? Walk away? Not a good idea. Without filing bankruptcy, the bank can still come after what is owed to them; even after they take AND sell the property. (and it'll be a lot higher because of the cost of foreclosing on the property)

There are other ways. One of these ways is called a "short-sale"; it is a way for the bank and/or mortgage company to come to a feasible solution with you. A short-sale is where the mortgage company agrees to take a certain percentage of the money that you owe and give you a letter releasing you from the remainder of the debt. The short-sale could still affect your credit, but by now your credit could already be trashed due to the situation.

Most of the time the bank won't even discuss a short-sale with you until you are behind in your payments (3 months in some cases) I have seen the banks discuss short-sale prior to default, but it was only in very specific situations.

Please understand, it is not an easy road to go with a short-sale. There is quite a bit of documentation and negotiation, but it is much easier than the alternative. You probably won't find out how much the bank will accept until you get an offer from a qualified buyer. It is best to find a Realtor that has experience in pre-foreclosure and short-sale. The Realtor can help guide you and in some cases help you to negotiate with the bank to make sure things go smoothly. The Realtor will know the language being spoken by the bank, can help you to put together the documentation and help you to understand the process.

So, the first steps aside from finding a qualified real estate agent; call your mortgage company, (don't avoid them, they won't go away), find out their process for short sale (the Realtor will help), get the house on the market, price it fairly according to the agents recommendations, keep the home in top quality condition (it will sell faster and possibly at a higher price). Once the offer comes in, be prepared to wait. The mortgage companies are dealing with hundreds; even thousands of short sales and foreclosures. They will get to yours, it may just take a little time (let your agent call and check on it), the buyers also have to be prepared to wait; your agent will make sure everyone knows the situation (within the terms of your agreement with the agent)

Don't give up hope! It may take a couple of years to bring your credit score up; but compared to foreclosure, judgments, collections, bankruptcy and possibly attorneys, it will be much better for you in the long run. Hang in there! Find a good Realtor to help.