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Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA

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Austin CowParade for the kids!

11-15-11
Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA
Austin isn't the first for this kind of fundraising, and this isn't even the first of its kind here. It is fun, though:

CowParade1CowParade2CowParade3 CowParade4CowParade5CowParade6

Proceeds went to Dell Children's Medical Center and The Superhero Kids Endowment. I didn't participate in the auction, but I donate part of my fee from every real estate transaction to the Dell hospital, so I am thrilled to see this huge benefit for them. Here's a little more about this event from local station KXAN, linked by the Austin Business Journal:

'CowParade' art auction raises $1.5M: kxan.com

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Sales dollar volume - another look at Austin home sales

11-11-11
Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA
A few days ago I updated my Austin Market Dashboard, and earlier today I commented on the status of median home prices in the Austin Metro area. This post offers a view of sales history here that combines unit sales and average sale prices -- total sales volume in dollars:

Dollar Volume of Austin-area Home Sales

There has been a lot said and written over the past couple of years about the trouble in the housing industry -- and there certainly has been some. More in some places than in others, but we have all felt it.

What the chart above points out is that the total dollar value of home sales activity in the Austin metro area over the past 3 or 4 years hasn't really been unusual, except that it hasn't been growing. It's not really down from an historical perspective, though. What was unusual was the bubble that we enjoyed in 2006 and 2007, as did most of the U.S. Our bubble wasn't as large as some so our fall wasn't as long, but there is no doubt that a correction took place.

The other notable feature in that chart is the distance between the annual highs and lows in 2008 through 2011. There is an obvious upward trend overall during those years, and the shape of this curve in 2011 looks very much like pre-bubble 2005. Year-to-date dollar volume in 2011 (January through September) is just 2% lower than the same period in 2005.

Does this mean "happy days are here again?" If that means going back to the boom time of 2006-2007 (or 1998-2000), probably not. We are on the mend, though, and, given continuing uncertainties elsewhere in the world and elsewhere in the U.S. housing market, virtually all forecasts are for continuing growth for Austin and Central Texas.
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NAR: Median Home Prices Down - How About Austin?

11-11-11
Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA
According to a report from the National Association of Realtors® this week, the median price of resale homes in almost 3/4 of 150 U.S. metros in 3rd Quarter 2011 compared to the same period in 2010. Click here for details. NAR's data shows a 4.8% decline for single family homes in Austin, and a 2.1% increase for condominiums. I have not tracked prices by product category in my Austin Market Dashboard, but the combined data that I do have, as reported by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University shows about a 1% decline overall from 3Q'10 to 3Q'11, so we're in the right ballpark.

Reviewing monthly Austin Metro median prices reveals a clear trend from pre-recession times to now, noticeably interrupted in July 2010 by the end of our last homebuyer tax incentives:

Austin Metro Median Home Prices 2006-2011

Isolating just the 3rd quarter numbers from those years shows that this year's quarterly decline is not especially a concern. Note price levels in 2011 compared to 2007 and 2008, when we should have been feeling the effects of the housing downturn:

Austin Metro - 3rd Quarter Median Prices 2006-2011

The weakest time for home prices in the Austin/Central Texas market was 2009, and this year's 3rd quarter median is up 3.5% from that time. Reviewing the details of NAR's data shows that most of the cities reporting large increases in home prices this year are among those that have the farthest to go to regain their pre-recession levels. It is great to see large increases in those cities, and we must all hope this change represents a trend.

On the other hand, Austin's "slow and steady" performance during the recession means that a dip compared to last year's very unusual July price spike should not be surprising. The longer-term view remains encouraging.
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Austin Market Dashboard - updated

11-05-11
Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA
Followers of my blog know that I have not been keeping up with this space over the past several weeks -- a testament to the busy-ness of the Austin/Central Texas real estate market. Amidst continuing discouragement from national news reports, our local economy is growing and creating jobs, and the real estate market is moving well as a result. I have posted a complete discussion at www.AustinMarketDashboard.com, but I'll offer a couple of highlights here. First, for three consecutive months -- July, August, and September -- 2011 home sales were up more than 30% compared to the same months in 2010:

Year-Over-Year Unit Sales Change

That is good news, especially considering that this is the first year in three years in which seasonal sales patterns were not distorted by temporary tax incentives aimed at encouraging home purchases. Second, although sales and average prices have dipped recently those changes represent very typical seasonal market behavior. The market indicator that I find more meaningful is the absorption rate, or "odds of selling":

Odds of Selling 1990-Present

That absorption rate has dipped over the past couple of months too, but this is the fiirst time since 2005 that we have seen this metric bouncing around the long-term average of 21% rather than a much lower level. With continuing uncertainties in the U.S. political and economic scene, and in the world economy, these Winter months may remain a little soft, but if history is an indication then we are poised to enter a new growth phase in the local real estate market. Feel free to visit www.AustinMarketDashboard.com for more detail and discussion, or just call or text or email me if you have any questions.
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Austin ranks highly in economic growth

09-14-11
Bill Morris, ABR, CRS, CDPE, ePRO, MBA
Austin Business Journal posted an article this morning about the growth in Austin's Gross Metropolitan Product in 2010 -- just under 7%, compared to 2.5% average GMP nationally.  Here is their source, from Business First of Buffalo:


Among all 366 metro areas analyzed, the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area was the 35th largest local economy.  It ranked 13th on GMP growth rate:

GMP Ranking By Rate Of Growth

Notice that most of the other cities on that list are much smaller economies.  Among the 50 largest metropolitan economies, the Austin/Central Texas area enjoyed the 2nd fastest GMP growth last year, only led by California's Silicon Valley:

GMP Growth Rank Among 50 Largest

Obviously, Northern California experienced the housing downturn very differently than we did here:  According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index through June 2011, the average home value was down 38% from the peak in May 2006.  Austin home values gained 16% over the same period.  That's a difference that may last a long time given the size of the housing bubble that burst in California.

On the other hand, Northern California and Austin have been compared many times, and they have a lot in common in terms of technology-driven economies and entrepreneurial spirit.  It is great to see both growing.  These cities should be pacesetters for the national economy in the coming months and years.
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