Bob Wilfinger

Expert: Housing market to stabilize

Valley home sales will gain steam, but recovery could take years, forum is told.

Lehigh Valley home sales will increase this year from their anemic pace in 2009, but it will take several years before home values begin appreciating again, a local real estate expert said Tuesday.

Loren Keim, of Century 21 Keim Realtors in Allentown, gave his prediction to 140 people attending the ''Real Estate Today'' program hosted by the Goodman Center for Real Estate Studies at Lehigh University.

There are some 5,000 homes for sale in the Lehigh Valley, and about 500 homes are sold in a good month, which means excess inventory will keep prices in check even as sales increase, Keim said.

''It's going to take years for inventory to be absorbed before we see prices rise again,'' Keim said.

Federal tax credits to encourage home-buying have caused a spike in sales activity this year, but Keim said that pace will likely taper off as the credits expire. He said home showings, an indicator of the number of people house-hunting, are down 70 percent from three weeks ago.

Home buyers had to have houses under contract by April 30 and close the transaction by June 30 to get tax credits.

''What worries me about this is whether or not we stole from the future,'' Keim said.

Population growth will ultimately help the housing market, as friends and family who have doubled up in homes spread back out when they feel more confident about the economy. If interest rates start rising, that could encourage some people to buy as well, he said.

The median price of a home sold in March in Lehigh and Northampton counties was $172,750, according to the Prudential Patt, White Real Estate HomExpert Market Report. That was down 6.6 percent from a year ago, but up 4.7 percent from February. The lower value of homes sold reflects activity in the market among first-time buyers and bargain-hunting investors, who purchase in the lower price ranges.

The local housing market continues to struggle under the weight of foreclosures and high unemployment. Median prices fell in 2008 and 2009, but have shown signs of stabilizing this year.

Freemansburg home builder Frank Alexander, president of Anthony Builders, said he went from building a couple of dozen homes in 2005 and into 2006 to building nothing in 2007 and 2008.

''I got stuck with some high-end townhouses,'' he said, referring to a seven-unit project he built and had planned to sell for $300,000-plus each. ''I still have them. I'm a landlord. I didn't want to be one, but I am.''

He filled them with option-to-buy leases, and his tenants include those who lost homes in foreclosure, Alexander said. He has been in the home construction business in the Lehigh Valley for 36 years. Since he's not building homes, he does mostly home remodeling and renovations, often for parents and children doubling up in a home, he said.

''I think the devaluation of real estate is a huge problem and I don't think anything is going to fix it,'' Alexander said. ''I'm actually telling people to go look at short-sales [where banks let owners sell for less than what they owe] because I can't compete with them.''

spencer.soper@mcall.com

I thought this was a great article, while there's 3 feet of snow dumping onto Washington, DC!!

Winter Curb Appeal - by Loren Keim

Keep your House Looking Good During the Cold Winter Months

Whether you're trying to sell your home or impress your family and friends during the holidays, their first impression of your home is the exterior. Although showcasing the front of your home is difficult in colder weather with brown lawns, leafless trees and a backdrop of cold and blistery skies, there are ways to improve the appearance and make your curb appeal pop.

Tips

• The Lawn - Although you won't be able to change the color of your lawn, or correct bare spots during the winter, you can create a manicured look by cleaning up the yard. Rake up any remaining leaves and remove any garbage that's blown into your yard.
• The Landscaping - Clean out all the dead plants that won't be coming back. Cut back bushes and trees that overgrew during the spring and summer. You might even consider planting a few winter flowers, if your climate permits. Even in winter months, depending on the weather, honeysuckle, snowberry, winter jasmine and lambs ear can add color to a dreary exterior.
• Put Everything Away - It's time to throw out the rusted rake that's been sitting against your home for the last several months, and clean up the garbage bags on the side of the house. Put away the garden hose and the children's outside toys. You'll need to keep your garage free for parking the car through the cold season, so I suggest purchasing an outdoor storage building, such as a weather resistant Lifetime shed.
• Add a Splash of Color - A little color can take away the winter blahs and make the front of your home stand out. A nice colorful wreath on the door and something colorful on the mailbox will draw attention and improve the look. More plantings, including evergreens, colorful poinsettias and holly bushes can add to an attractive winter exterior.
• Safety Tips -Days are shorter and good lighting is important, so replace any burned out light bulbs outside. Make sure your sidewalks and any other walking paths are clear. You don't want anyone slipping and falling. If you hang exterior holiday lights to brighten your home, make sure to use lights and extension cords that are rated for outside use.

Improving your curb appeal in the winter isn't expensive, but it does take careful planning, a little creativity and a few hours of hard work!

Loren Keim is a national authority on real estate and the housing market and is the president of Century 21 Keim Realtors in Pennsylvania. He is the author of several how-to books, including "How to Sell Your Home in Any Market" and has appeared on various television programs and radio shows offering advice and insight on the housing market and the recent real estate crisis. In addition to his other work, he currently serves as a spokesperson for Lifetime.

Link from Lifetime - http://www.lifetime.com/tipssolutions/organization/article.aspx?postid=307167

This was an email to me today. I think it's definitely worth a read!

What's REALLY in the huge $825 Billion Dollar Stimulus Package?

(By the way, you NEED to get copies of the two books listed at the end of this email!)

GLENN BECK COMMENTS AT THE END OF THIS EMAIL!!!

The case is being made by Congress and the President that we need a stimulus package right now in order to save the country. We need to create jobs and disposable income. That's probably true... but is this stimulus package REALLY a stimulus package?

Obama and Congress say they're going to create jobs by investing in renewable energy, health care, education and modern construction projects. It sounds pretty good. (Although none of those things BUILD something that can make money for the country in a global market)

Let's see what those words really mean...

Education - $142 Billion (17.2% of this stimulus) - majority going to increase Pell Grants for college education for low income students, and for reconfiguring public schools. Paying for college education for even more people sounds like a nice idea, but how exactly does it create jobs? How exactly does it help solve our problems NOW? And honestly, isn't paying more higher education for more and more people simply increasing the distribution of wealth? Money doesn't come from the government, it comes from us.

Renewable Energy - $54 billion. I think renewable energy is a great idea, BUT what they're actually spending it on is weatherizing low-income homes, grants to families of limited means to get new windows and insulation. It's also being spent to better insulate and update 75% of federal buildings. How is this renewable energy? It's STILL redistribution of wealth. Take from one group to buy windows for another. Don't believe this is actually his plan, check out CNN's report on Yahoo at http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106490/Stimulus-101-What's-in-the-Bills

Health Care- No, it's not what you think - it's actually $20 billion being spent to computerize all health care records nationally so that we have a single database so that the government can know everything about your health situation (makes it easier to take over health care later). Again, how is this stimulating the economy?

Feeding the hungry: $20 billion. Increase food stamp benefits by 13%, and provide support for food banks. Stimulus? ‘ Nuff Said.

Medicaid: $87 billion. Increase Federal Medicaid Assistance Percentage so states do not have to cut eligibility for Medicaid due to budget shortfalls.

Construction projects: $90 billion. Although part of this is going to rebuild roads and bridges, much of it is going to provide funding for mass transit systems, which has failed in most parts of the country.

Science, research and technology: $16 billion. Invest in science facilities, research and instrumentation to create new industries, new jobs and medical breakthroughs. Expand broadband Internet access in rural and underserved areas. The ONLY part of the bill that might make sense.

From CNN - The case against: Opponents argue the spending will lead to a rapidly increasing and unsustainable deficit. They also say that a majority of infrastructure projects (ed: a small portion of this entire bill) will take too long to implement.

Remember that everything spent by the government comes from us. WE pay the bill. These hundreds of billions of dollars will create a deficit (a loan) that we'll have to pay back over time. The government BORROWS the money through sales of bonds and then owes MORE money back at the end. This $825 Billion will probably cost us several Trillion over time. Can we afford it?

Forward this to everyone you know!

Deal with the current economic crisis! Pick up the two books below now! (click on the book to order!)

Crash Proof (Peter Schiff) The economic tipping point for the United States is now a reality. The country has gone from the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor; the value of the dollar is sinking; domestic manufacturing is way down - and these trends don't seem to be slowing. Peter Schiff casts a sharp, clear-sighted eye on these factors and explains what the possible effects may be and how investors can protect themselves. What Schiff sees is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt, too-little savings, a declining dollar, and lack of domestic manufacturing. Crash-Proof is an informed and informative warning of a looming period marked by sizeable tax hikes, loss of retirement benefits, double digit inflation, even the possible collapse of the middle class. However, Schiff does have a survival plan that can provide the protection that readers will need in the coming years.	How to Sell Your Home in ANY Market (Loren Keim) If you're being crushed by the subprime industry, can't pay your mortgage, need to get out, you can, regardless of the real estate market in your area - by using the tips and techniques of Real Estate guru Loren Keim. In his entertaining, anecdotal style with real world stories and examples, Keim shows how to get your home sold fast regardless of market condition.
Other Great Reads about the Current Economic Crisis!
Financial Shock (Mark Zandi) "The obvious place to start is the financial crisis and the clearest guide to it that I've read is Financial Shock by Mark Zandi. ... it is an impressively lucid guide to the big issues." -- The New York Times "In Financial Shock, Mr. Zandi provides a concise and lucid account of the economic, political and regulatory forces behind this binge." -The Wall Street Journal	The Return of Depression Economics, Krugman shows how the failure of regulation to keep pace with an increasingly out-of-control financial system set the United States, and the world as a whole, up for the greatest financial crisis since the 1930s. He also lays out the steps that must be taken to contain the crisis, and turn around a world economy sliding into a deep recession. Lucid, lively, and supremely informed--this new edition of The Return of Depression Economics will become an instant cornerstone of the debate over how to respond to the crisis.

Glenn Beck: Is President Obama's stimulus package socialism in disguise?

Check out Glenn Beck at www.glennbeck.com

I thought President Obama said this is supposed to be a quick "jolt" to the economy? The president has also billed the stimulus as an investment in America's infrastructure. And if that were true, I'd be all for it. I mean, I-95 here on the East Coast isn't exactly the autobahn.

Yet only 3 percent - just $30 billion - of this entire package is dedicated to road and highway spending. Then you have the promise about creating "green jobs" and clean energy. Again, you want to seriously get wind and solar and nuclear power off the ground, I'm in. But this isn't serious. Only 2 percent of the money is earmarked for clean energy and only 1/7th of that will be spent over the next 2 years.

The CBO tells us that billions of dollars are going to buy new computers and replace government cars with new alternative fuel vehicles. In all, the money is going to 150 different federal programs - from Amtrak to the TSA - and it's not clear a single new job will be created. America, let's call a spade a spade: This package isn't meant to stimulate the economy, it's meant to reshape it.

If President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the progressives really believe that socialism is the best way out of this mess and the best way forward for America, then make the case. Let's debate it and allow the American people to decide. But what they're doing now - using fear to promote long-term changes to the country - is exactly the kind of thing that has led to the biggest deficit of all: The deficit of trust we now have in our leaders.