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Bob Phillips, CDPE, SFR South Orange Co., CA

Foreclosure Activity Slows Again In June 2010

Foreclosures per capita, June 2010 313,841 foreclosure filings were made in June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The figure represents a 3 percent drop from May and 7 percent drop from June of last year. However, foreclosure filings remain relatively high nationwide. June marks the 16th straight month the filings topped 300,000. 1 in every 411 U.S. homes received some form of notice last month with foreclosure density varying wildly from state-to-state. Like everything else in real estate, it seems, foreclosures are a local phenomenon. The states with the highest foreclosures per capita were:
  • Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 88 homes
  • Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 171 homes
  • Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 189 homes
The states with the lowest foreclosures per capita were:
  • Vermont : 1 foreclosure filing per 26,051 homes
  • West Virgina : 1 foreclosure filing per 8,058 homes
  • South Dakota : 1 foreclosure filing per 6,528 homes
Overall, 40 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average and 10 states fell below. The sheer volume of REO, though, is creating interesting buying opportunities for first-timer buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors in Rancho Santa Margarita. Homes bought from banks are usually less expensive than non-foreclosure homes. This is one of the major reasons why distressed sales account for roughly 30 percent of all home resales. Less expensive, though, doesn't always mean "cheaper". Foreclosed homes are often sold as-is and may be defective or otherwise uninhabitable. Making repairs to get these homes into "living condition" can be costly. Therefore, if you're buying a foreclosed home, make sure you know what you're buying before you make your bid. Have a certified professional inspect the home to check for damage, and consider enlisting the help of a real estate agent to assist with negotiations and management of the contract. The process of buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a typical resale. Make sure you do your homework.

The Supply Of Available New Homes Just Plummeted

New Home Supply April 2009 - April 2010The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the South Orange County housing market as we head into the summer months.

It's no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years

At the current sales pace, the nation's complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month's time.  That's more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It's a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market "repaired in full", we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit's April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions.  Low rates don't sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April's new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders.  As compared to February 2010, April's average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent.  That's a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It's no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

Should You Refinance Your Mortgage?

Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They're at levels not seen in 50 years. For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it's a second chance.

In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC's The Today Show, you'll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.

Some of the topics covered include:

  • Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
  • How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
  • Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?

The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered. There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won't stay that way. If you've been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.

Home Supplies Tick Higher, Creating An Opening For Today’s Home Buyers

Existing Home Sales Apr 2009-Apr 2010Sales of existing homes rose in April, buoyed by an expiring home buyer tax credit and exceptionally low mortgage rates. As compared to March, April's Existing Home Sales rose by 410,000 units nationwide -- the second straight month of large gains. An "existing home" is a home resold by a prior owner (i.e. not new construction). It's a solid report for housing overall, with rising sales suggesting that the real estate market's recovery is ongoing. However, the data presented a mixed message. According to the National Association of Realtors®, although the number of homes sold ticked higher in April, so did the supply of existing homes for sale, too. Sellers are now listing homes faster than buyers can buy them. After adding another 0.3 months of supply in April, resale home supply is nearly two full months larger than at November 2009's low-point. This put downward pressure on home prices. Furthermore, because 49% of April's buyers were first-time buyers and the tax credit has since ended, we can expect that sellers will continue to outweigh buyers in the months ahead. It presents an interesting opportunity for June's home buyers. Mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels of the year -- despite expert predictions to the contrary -- and homes remain affordable. Plus, in a lot of markets, home values have started to creep higher. There's good values and good rates but neither should last long. For the next few weeks, real estate may be in its 2010 sweet spot. If you were thinking of moving in September of this year or later, consider moving up your timeframe.

More Homeowners Can Refinance as Rates Fall While Values Nudge Upward

While the demand for mortgage loans to purchase a new home has declined following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, mortgage applications overall, increased last week as home owners looked to refinance. Mortgage rates have reached their lowest levels since March and many homeowners are looking to refinance their mortgage loans. While falling home prices have reduced the popularity of refinancing to tap into home equity, low mortgage rates have drawn the attention of borrowers looking to reduce their interest payments. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an increase in the number of applications for mortgage loans. The first week of May saw just under a 4 percent jump in applications from the previous week. With U.S. fixed rate mortgages hovering close to 5 percent, many homeowners jumped at the opportunity to refinance into lower mortgage rates. And with home prices starting to stabilize, the housing market is beginning to return to business as usual. In the past few years homeowners have seen tremendous volatility in the housing market, including some of largest declines in home prices in recent memory. Falling home prices have wiped out an unprecedented amount of U.S. homeowner's equity, shaking up the mortgage business. With home prices showing more stability, borrowers and lenders can once again be confident that once a home is refinanced its value will most likely not fall below the mortgage balance. Some borrowers have even chosen to do cash-in refinances, putting more equity into their home to qualify for lower interest rates. Mortgage Rates Remain Incredibly Low. Despite the Federal Reserve ending it mortgage purchasing program, mortgage rates remain low. The Mortgage Banker Association reported that they were as low as 4.96 percent for the first week of May. While above the 4.76 percent they were this time last year, the sub 5 percent rates are still historically low. Many homeowners have been waiting for rates to once again dip down and as the trend of increased mortgage loan applications indicates they are swooping in to take advantage. In some lower price ranges, because values have nudged up over the last year, some homeowners who couldn't refinance a year or two ago, now can - at historically low fixed rates! Look into it with your favorite loan person - I can recommend a couple of good ones.