Bill Richards

Investor often ask me what types of real estate investments are available on the market. Here's what we tell them.

This is the first of several postings on the topic.

Please offer comments - positive or negative!

Assignments. If you don't have much equity to work with, and/or if your credit power is limited, assignments can be a way to get started in real estate investing. You will need to have a strong "sales" personality to succeed at it, though.

Rental Condo or Rental Home. Purchase of a residential property to be rented out to tenants, usually on a 6-12 month lease term. This is how most new landlords get started. You can hire out all of the property management functions, but in many cases you will do many of them on your own. There are smaller down payment requirements than for larger rental buildings. The purchase process and financing process is very similar to what you experienced buying the home you live in now. It's a great way for beginners to get started.

Small (2-4 units) Apartment Building. Purchase of duplex, triplex or quadplex to be rented to tenants, usually for 6-12 month terms. Usually what the rental home / condo landlords graduate to. In most markets they cost a little more than a rental home, but are much more likely to cash flow on the average month. Less cash flow risk; if one unit is empty you have other tenants that still help you with the mortgage payment so it doesn't all come out of your pocket. Many owners will start to delegate some of the property management tasks to an on-site assistant (typically the most responsible tenant), such as yard maintenance and showing empty units. The financing process is only slightly more involved than a residential loan. Relatively small down payment requirements make it affordable. The purchase process is also very similar to purchasing a home. It's a good way for beginners to get started.

Large (5+ unit) Apartment Building. Still targeting tenants for 6-12 months at a time, buildings with more than five units are considered "commercial" property. The loans are more difficult to qualify for, and usually a larger down payment is needed. Uncommon for the new investor; this is usually what landlords with several years of experience "trade up" to. Cash flows on larger buildings are more stable than for smaller buildings, and the economies of scale make it practical (and desirable) to hire a property manager to take over most the work for you. This takes reduces the hassle factor of the landlord process.

Lease Options. Again you are seeking a tenant for a property, but usually for a slightly longer term (12-18 months) and frequently (though not always) with the goal that the tenant purchase the property from you at the end of the lease. If you purchase the property, then it's an easier process; if you find a highly motivated seller to let you re-lease the property to another tenant, it can be a lot of work to set up. However, the re-lease method doesn't require any cash out of pocket and does not rely on your credit score, so it is appealing to many investors. Great for beginners with the right skills and attitude.

Fix and Flips. Purchasing a home that needs work. The scope can range from the basic "paint and carpet" to extensive overhauls to scraping a decrepit property and completely starting over. Usually does not involve tenants, and the objective is to get in and out of the property as quickly as possible. Great for beginners with the right skill sets or the willingness to learn.

Conversion of Apartments into Condos. A synthesis of the fix and flip and rental operations - purchasing an apartment building in a neighborhood dominated by owner occupants, then converting the building from apartment building to condominium. Often requires renovation of the units to meet the expectations of owner-occupant buyers in that area. Complex and time consuming, but has wonderful tax advantages compares to fix and flips and often has superior returns to all other asset classes. Ideally suited for the sophisticated investor with extensive experience.

Scrapes, Pops and New Construction. Purchasing a small home in an expensive neighborhood that may or may not need work. The home is bulldozed and a new home or duplex is put on the lot. Alternatively, the existing home is renovated and more square footage is added on. A pop-top is adding a second story to an existing home to add more square footage (commonly, a master bedroom suite).

(c) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

Contact me at lonwelsh@yourcastle.org for more info.

If you have not heard already, the inventory of home on the market in Denver has been declining. This is not true in many regions of the county. Your clients, who often only see national headlines, might not be aware of this favorable news. Our market has some unusual factors at work. Let's explore them, so you can better help your clients.

If you look at the first chart (MOI 1), you'll see the MOI (months of inventory) for Denver's suburbs on the bottom axis and the average sales price in that suburb on the axis on the left side. Denver metro currently has about six months of inventory (a balanced market, on average), but you can see there is a lot of variety from one city to the next. Lower cost areas, such as Thornton, are seeing inventory move fast. Sellers (mainly banks) don't have to wait long for offers. Thornton's average price in the last year was around $250,000 and the average MOI was about 3 months. Greenwood Village, on the other end of the scale, had about 13 MOI and an average price of about $1.4 million. Sellers are suffering there. The city of Denver is about in the middle.

If you look at the second chart (MOI 2), you'll see the MOI information sorted by the price of the home. In some cases, this might be more useful when you meet with clients. The city of Denver, for example, has many neighborhoods with homes under $100,000, and they are selling fast. On the other hand, upscale neighborhoods like Cherry Creek and Hilltop have significant levels of inventory and it's taking a long time to get homes sold, especially over the $1 million price barrier.

The left part of the chart show what percent of the active listings are REO (in red) and which are regular sellers (in green). For homes priced between $0 and $100K, regular (e.g.,, non-bank) sellers are 17% of the active inventory, but only 12% of the sales in the last twelve months. You can see on the left that since they are not getting their "fair share" of the sales, the MOI for the regular sellers under $100K is 2.7 months. For REO under $100K, it's a blazing 1.9 months. This probably isn't a surprise to any Realtor that has written an offer for a low priced REO and the listing agent has told them their buyer is competing with ten other offers. It's a strong seller's market at this price point!

Compare the homes from $480K to $1MM. Here, MOI is around 14 months - a very slow market. Your seller's experience with marketing time depends greatly on their price. I hope this information will help you demystify our market for your clients.

The big message has not changed since last quarter - it's still a great time to be a buyer in the condo market. Prices are at a three year low in many areas, and interest rates on mortgages are still historically low.

The average condo price in Metro Denver declined 4% between 2006 and 2007: from $187K to $180K. Homes dropped 3% in that time period. Looking just at the first nine months of 2008 vs. the same time period in 2007, the price dropped 6%: from $181K to $172K. Homes dropped 11% in that time period. From their peak prices in 2006, condos have dropped around 9.5% while homes have dropped 12%. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from October 2007 to September 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average condo price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months. There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Last quarter, we reported that days on market (DOM) had been declining for condos, which should be a leading indicator that we are due for price increases soon. That still seems to be the case.

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 3%, to $303,000. The average price in the first three quarters of 2008 was $272,000 vs. similar period of 2007 was $308,000: an 11% decrease. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Colorado Springs or Boulder.

Much of the decline is a mix issue. For example, sales volume of homes over 4,000 square feet has plummeted in the last twelve months. Middle-market homes have generally been steady in their sales volume. Very inexpensive homes under 1,000 square feet have greatly increased their sales volume. You can explain it to your clients like this: Imagine you own a car dealership and you sell Chevys and Cadillacs. If you sold 50 of each type of car last month, but then you sold 75 Chevys and 25 Cadillacs this month, the average price at your dealership would have dropped quite a bit. This would be true even if you didn't change the price of the cars. This is what we mean by a mix of what is sold issue.

Our guess is that the buyers of the 4,000 square foot homes are sitting on the sidelines since very few people really need that much space - it is a decision that can be postponed. They are probably waiting for the bad news in the headlines to blow over and for the rates on jumbo loans to return to more reasonable levels. While they wait, the investors are snapping up bargain REO properties to use as rentals.

This market behavior is likely to continue for at least another nine to eighteen months. However, once the REO volume starts to decline a little, and the jumbo rates come down, we'll see a reversal to the mix problem. Suddenly, the pent-up demand at the high end of the market will be unleashed, and we'll finally start to run out of bargain basement REO homes. Using the car dealer analogy, we'll be selling 25 Chevys and 75 Cadillacs each month. You can guess what will happen to the average prices - in some neighborhoods they will increase as fast as they have dropped in the last few years.

The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from October 2007 to September 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months. There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 3%, to $303,000. The average price in the first three quarters of 2008 was $272,000 vs. similar period of 2007 was $308,000: an 11% decrease. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Colorado Springs or Boulder.

Much of the decline is a mix issue. For example, sales volume of homes over 4,000 square feet has plummeted in the last twelve months. Middle-market homes have generally been steady in their sales volume. Very inexpensive homes under 1,000 square feet have greatly increased their sales volume. You can explain it to your clients like this: Imagine you own a car dealership and you sell Chevys and Cadillacs. If you sold 50 of each type of car last month, but then you sold 75 Chevys and 25 Cadillacs this month, the average price at your dealership would have dropped quite a bit. This would be true even if you didn't change the price of the cars. This is what we mean by a mix of what is sold issue.

Our guess is that the buyers of the 4,000 square foot homes are sitting on the sidelines since very few people really need that much space - it is a decision that can be postponed. They are probably waiting for the bad news in the headlines to blow over and for the rates on jumbo loans to return to more reasonable levels. While they wait, the investors are snapping up bargain REO properties to use as rentals.

This market behavior is likely to continue for at least another nine to eighteen months. However, once the REO volume starts to decline a little, and the jumbo rates come down, we'll see a reversal to the mix problem. Suddenly, the pent-up demand at the high end of the market will be unleashed, and we'll finally start to run out of bargain basement REO homes. Using the car dealer analogy, we'll be selling 25 Chevys and 75 Cadillacs each month. You can guess what will happen to the average prices - in some neighborhoods they will increase as fast as they have dropped in the last few years.

The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from October 2007 to September 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months. There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.


Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data