Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
Sometimes I feel like the Phoenix housing market is the “little engine that could.” The market is marching along toward recovery, inventory is continuing to decline, and foreclosure inventory is still declining significantly.
For thirteen months in a row, we have seen a decline in notices of foreclosure. A notice of foreclosure is issued when a borrower has stopped making their payments, and the notice gives them 90 days to become current on payments before the lender forecloses. The all time high for notices in Maricopa County was in December of 2009 when 47,606 notices were issued. In December of 2011, 18,347 notices were issued. That may sound like a lot, however that is a 62% decrease in notices of foreclosure.
We are continuing to see slight price increases. The bottom of the median price range was $107,000 eleven months ago in February of 2011. We saw the median price rise to $115,000 in December, and it has seen another gain, with the current median price at $118,000.
RL Brown has been one of the leading forecasters in the Phoenix housing market since the mid 1960s. I recall sitting in his annual forecast event in January of 2008, when everyone involved in housing was hoping that market decline taking place would be a typical twelve to twenty-four month event. When RL Brown stated that he was forecasting signs of recovery for the Phoenix market in the third to fourth quarter of 2011, I was hoping that he was experiencing temporary insanity. Clearly the guy knows something because he was spot on. Phoenix has now been declared #4 out of the Top 10 cities “for positive house price change in 2012.”
Listings Pending Sale are up with a total of 10,701. That is an increase of 613 pending sales when compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies (short sales with an executed contract that are awaiting approval from the lender) account for an additional 7,154 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
· There are 18,239 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.
For additional information, and to view homes for sale, visit www.PacellaGroup.com
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS,
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
My obsession with foreclosure inventory, or lack thereof, and its effect on pricing continues to consume me!
There are currently 97 HUD owned homes actively being listed in MLS. That is a 91% decrease from 1,114 at this time last year! Notices of Trustee sale (foreclosure) are down 59% from the same time period in 2011.
As we have established previously, 5.5 months of supply is considered to be a balanced market with supply above 5.5 indicating a buyer’s market, and supply below 5.5 indicating a seller’s market. Currently, we have a 3.6 month supply of inventory Valley wide, which includes homes that are short sales under contract, but waiting on lender approval.
I have mentioned many times those dark days of late 2007 and early 2008 when I would hold my breath before looking at inventory, which was approximately 56,000 active listings, and absorption, which was under 5%. Today, inventory is 18,562 active listings, with a 54% absorption rate, meaning that half of the houses on the market are selling each month.
The last time that we have seen overall inventory this low was in October of 2005. Do we all remember what was happening in October of 2005? It’s happening again, right now. Most homes that are in good condition and locations are receiving multiple offers, if they are priced appropriately. Our buyer clients are always shocked to discover this during the consultations because the media is not broadcasting the information. It’s the best kept secret in town!
As a result, the median home price is currently $117,000 an increase of $7,000 from the same time period last year. We do have our neighbors to thank for much of our progress. Out of state purchasers has risen to 25% with Californians leading the way, followed by Canadians.
Listings Pending Sale are up with a total of 10,088. That is an increase of 532 pending sales when compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies (short sales with an executed contract that are awaiting approval from the lender) account for an additional 6,952 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* Inventory is continuing to melt. There are 14,545 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS, which is essentially no change from last week.
* There are 18,562 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.
For additional information, and to view homes for sale, visit www.PacellaGroup.com
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
Phoenix is still in the bargain bin, but perhaps not for long! We are definitely kicking off 2012 with a bang!
We typically think of December as a slow month for closings, and January as a slow month for pending sales, but think again! In the Phoenix metro area market, December of 2011 had 8,107 closings, which is up over 16% from November 2011 closings. Additionally, we have nearly 10,000 properties pending sale, and almost 7,000 short sales that are under contract and awaiting lender approval. Giddy up!
As we’ve already established, I am obsessed with the sudden and steep decline in foreclosure inventory, in the Phoenix market. For years, we saw that foreclosures not only made up a large percentage of the active inventory, but they made up an even larger percentage of the homes that were actually selling. In the month of December, of the approximately 8,000 homes that sold in Phoenix, only about 2,000 of them were foreclosures, which is the lowest percentage since May of 2008.
Inventory, (or supply) in general is continuing to decline. Inventory came down 7% in December, and is down 42% from the same time period, last year. The decline in supply, and decline in foreclosure inventory is finally beginning to create an increase in pricing. On average, throughout the Valley, and in all price ranges, the average price per square foot rose 5.7% from September 15th through December 31st.
It seems that the media likes to focus on the negative, so we will probably hear quite a bit in the next few weeks about the 11% increase in foreclosures in Phoenix, in December, as compared to November, which was a result of a group of old Countrywide loans the borrowers of whom were noticed en-masse in August, and foreclosed in December. Unfortunately, what the media will be unlikely to report is the 15% drop in new notices, which is the lowest in Maricopa County since November of 2007.
In summary, if you would like to share the good news with your friends and neighbors:
· December of 2011 was an extremely strong month for sale, and based on the pending sales, January of 2012 should be extremely strong, as well.
· The percentage of foreclosure inventory continues to decline, and the percentage of foreclosure sales is the lowest since May of 2008.
· Inventory is continuing to decline, and prices are increasing.
· New notices of foreclosure are at their lowest point since November of 2007.
Listings Pending Sale are down slightly at 9,556. That is a decrease of 350 pending sales when compared to last week, and again, although it is a decrease from the previous week, seasonally, it is extremely strong. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 6,735 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
* Inventory is continuing to melt. There are 14,539 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is a decrease of 102 listings over the past week. We never did see the typical, seasonal inventory swell that usually begins in mid September to early October, and continues through the end of the year.
* There are 18,534 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.
For additional information, or to view homes for sale, visit www.PacellaGroup.com
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
We’ve come a long way, baby!
By now you know that I am a data geek/junkie. It shouldn’t surprise me to discover that the data geek in me saved a market snap shot dated August 17, 2007, the very week that the mortgage meltdown occurred. On that date, Phoenix had 56,205 active listings in MLS inventory, only 4,687 pending listings, and a 12.3 months supply of inventory. I certainly recall the frustration of making phone calls to inform sellers that their pending listings were falling out of escrow because the buyer’s lender had closed their doors, and the buyer was not able to obtain other financing, and of course what in subsequent months felt like paralysis of the market, as absorption dropped below 5%.
Today, we have 18,773 active listings in MLS inventory, which is a 66% improvement, there are almost 10,000 pending listings, our supply is just 3.5 months, and absorption is 48%. Hallelujah!
In the time since 2007, our market snapshots have added the bonus feature of tracking foreclosure and short sale inventory (unnecessary prior to 2007). Valley wide, foreclosure inventory is down to 9%, and short sale inventory is hovering at 36% (it has bounced between 36-39% for the past two years).
Listings Pending Sale are down slightly at 9,906. That is a decrease of 535 pending sales when compared to two weeks ago, and very typical for this time of year. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 6,891 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
The Cromford Report, which analyzes MLS data and trends in Maricopa County, is making some BOLD predictions, fueled by continued positive indicators in the market data.
To begin, sales for the month of November were up 8% over the same time period last year; additionally, active listings are down 41%. The listing success rate (the number of homes that come on to the market and actually sell, rather than resulting in an expired listing) has increased 15% over last year.
The big news continues to be in foreclosure inventory (or lack thereof ), equity listing inventory, and pricing. The shift in inventory is finally equating to a shift in pricing. As we have observed over the last 120 days, foreclosure inventory has been on a sharp decline. The good news is that the declining foreclosure inventory has made way for an increase in equity sale inventory, which of the three segments of market inventory (foreclosure, short sale, or equity sale), has the greatest strength in pricing. The overall result is an increase in the average price per square foot.
The overall, average price per square foot valley wide has increased 6.5% in the 91 days between September 1, 2011 and November 30, 2011. Additionally, the month over month increase from October to November was 3.1%.
The two cities showing the greatest price per square foot increase over the past year are Fountain Hills at 14.8% and Paradise Valley at 11.9% (sort of shatters the myth that the luxury market is struggling).
The two cities showing the least gain in price per square foot over the past year are Sun Lakes at -14.3%, which is surprising, since typically the 55 and over communities weather market trends with less distress; and Litchfield Park at -8.5%.
Listings Pending Sale are up again this weekat 10,441. That is an increase of 244 pending sales when compared to last week, and unusual for our typical seasonal market. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7,345 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
For additional information, or to view homes for sale, please visit our web site at www.PacellaGroup.com
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2012 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
