Brian Witt

The big message has not changed since last quarter - it's still a great time to be a buyer in the condo market. Prices are at a three year low in many areas, and interest rates on mortgages are still historically low.

The average condo price in Metro Denver declined 4% between 2006 and 2007: from $187K to $180K. Homes dropped 3% in that time period. Looking just at the first nine months of 2008 vs. the same time period in 2007, the price dropped 6%: from $181K to $172K. Homes dropped 11% in that time period. From their peak prices in 2006, condos have dropped around 9.5% while homes have dropped 12%. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from October 2007 to September 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average condo price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months. There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Last quarter, we reported that days on market (DOM) had been declining for condos, which should be a leading indicator that we are due for price increases soon. That still seems to be the case.

As investors we face a number of very real and very scary challenges. Making sense of this market is no mean feat and one has to be very careful with his or her investment. However, we usually think about danger as financial. Unfortunately, on rare occasion it can be even worse than that. The majority of the homes investors are buying these days are vacant and once in a while people break in and live in these properties illegally. The last thing you want to do is walk in on someone camped out in a house, perhaps conducting illegal an activity. This is no joke, you want to be HEARD when you walk into a property that is supposed to vacant. So make a lot of noise when you're at the front door. I always knock loudly before entering. Stomp your feet a little. Yell "Hello!" a couple of times. When you start walking down into the basement repeat the process. The goal is to have whoever is inside hear you and not panic and do something stupid. I hope you never need this advice, but keep it in mind the next time you visit a foreclosed home.

A lot of investors ask what an egress window is and when one is needed. Technically, it's a window for a room below grade that a municipality has deemed large enough to be safe for exit in case of emergency. While there are some variations, the window needs to be large enough that a firefighter with an oxygen bottle on their back could get in, then carry out an injured person in a fire. Most often, it's associated with a basement bedroom window, making it a legal bedroom. Basement bedrooms without egress windows are illegal. Installing an egress window makes them legal. The confusion is that different cities, counties and agencies have different size requirements and height-above-floor requirements for these windows. Therefore, before you start cutting into the concrete foundation you better make sure you've visited the local building department to get their requirements. In addition, HUD, distributing Section 8 vouchers, also has their own requirements for egress windows. So if you're going to rent to a Section 8 tenant make certain you know what their requirements are. If you don't, you won't get credit for that basement bedroom and get way less rent than you expected - believe me it happens every day. To be honest, there are probably hundreds if not thousands of rentals in Metro Denver that have basement bedrooms without egress windows. In my opinion, this is not only illegal, it's immoral. And if that wasn't enough to discourage you from having one, ask yourself what happens if there is a catastrophic fire and someone dies in your illegal basement bedroom. Not good! For about $1,500 - $2,500 you can get a competent contractor to install an egress window (only one is required per basement bedroom) and sleep better at night.

A LOT of agents don't advise their clients to get sewer scopes when they purchase a property. This is a major mistake. A broken sewer can cost between $3,000 - $10,000 dollars to repair and it only costs $99 ($99Rooter - others are more expensive) to have a tech put a camera down the sewer pipe and videotape the sewer all the way to the mainline. This will tell you and the-buyer what the condition of the sewer is. So let's see, we pay to have the furnace inspected but a new furnace will only be about $2,000. We pay to have the roof inspected but that's probably a $4,000 job. So why don't we always inspect the sewer? One reason is because, let's face it, Realtors want closings. Many figure if they keep their mouth shut and don't go out of their way to recommend a sewer scope that's one less chance the deal will fall through. Inexcusable, but all too commonplace. Don't be a chump - get a sewer scope.

A lot of clients ask me how to figure out what market rents are in a neighborhood. This is a critical input into the calculations an investor needs to make in order to determine what their return on investment will be on a rental property. So you don't want to screw this up! Unfortunately, this is one of the many figures new investors get wrong.

One place people go to get rents is Rent-o-Meter. Rent-o-Meter is billed as an online resource to get accurate market rents. In my experience it is anything but! However, I have a fairly simple solution. Multiply what you see on Rent-o-Meter by 80% and you'll probably be close. I can't explain why but I find rents on Rent-o-Meter to be about 25% high, so multiplying their rents by 80% will get you close (do the math, it works out).

So then, how do you get market rents? Simple: start at the subject property and drive concentric circles around the neighborhood. Call every For Rent sign you see (if you don't see any this is a good sign!). Interview the landlords. A subtle but telling sign is how polite the landlords are on the phone. If they act overly solicitous and desperate it's a sign that vacancies are high and they're desperate to get tenants - not a good sign for you. If they are breezy, abrupt, and even rude, that's GREAT! It means they have too many phone calls for their vacancy and it's a strong landlord market. This is what you want to hear!

In many neighborhoods around town today this is exactly what you'll find. I know. When the vacancy rate was 13% a few years ago I was very nice over the phone. Now that it's 4%...well, a little less nice. Nothing like good -ol' market research.