Bob Foster

Each month I take the stats from our local board and put them into a spreadsheet to produce a graph that shows what the long-term trends have been in our market here in southern Ontario, Canada.

This graph shows the trends over the past 15 months -

You can see the decline that took place last fall, the resurgence we had in the market due to pent-up demand last spring, and the up and down results we have had since last April as the market tries to deal with both good and bad news about the economy.

One of the standard measures used to look at trends in the real estate market is "How well are we doing compared to a year ago"?

The difficulty with using this measure right now, is that you need to consider what was happening a year ago and see that it was anything but a normal market. The economy of the US, then most other nations, started a decline that ran right through until January 2009 in our area. Many markets are still waiting for recovery, but by July of this year we were pretty much back to previous levels in our market.

So, as the statistics come out for the next months, through to January 2010, we will likely hear about year-to-year increases over last year's figures, but is this a result of how good thing are now, or how bad they were a year ago?

The answer has to be - a little of both. We are very fortunate to have an economy that has shown good recovery, but if we are told that prices are up by 5 or 10%, this is a good time to ask, "Compared to what?"

"Now, I know longer school days and school years are not wildly popular ideas," the president said earlier this year. "Not with Malia and Sasha, not in my family, and probably not in yours. But the challenges of a new century demand more time in the classroom." - Barack Obama

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I was an educator for 38 years. I taught greades JK though 8, grade 12 English, special education. music, andcourses for teachers at the university level. I was a vice-Principal and I spent 8 1/2 years as coordinator for our local board of education in Ontario, Canada.

I understand Obama's motivation in making this statement. North America is getting hammered by international competition, but I think he is wrong about the need to have longer school days and longer school years for three reasons.

1) First, ask yourself ... would I be a more effective, better balanced, and happier person now if I had spent a lot more time in school?

2) I am tired of hearing about our academic results being compared to those of kids in asian countries. A while ago there was a team of Japanese educators sent over to North America to study our systems and try to solve a serious problem - how to prevent having so many of their teenagers commit suicide under the pressure of schooling and examinations.

3) I know that most teachers do their best ... but look at the system. 20 -30 kids are crammed into a classroom and force fed a curriculum that they had no say in designing, ok, actually one that none of their parents helped to design either. Keep costs low ... treat academic learning as the only measure of success, and basically, you get what we've got. Do you really want more of the same?

I learned to read because of Huckleberry Finn.

I learned division because my sister and I couldn't play a game of marbles fairly if the bag full was not evenly divided.

I learned to investigate the best way of doing thigs because if you grab a crawfish the wrong way, it pinches you - hard.

I learned responsibility, manners, and respect for authority at home.

I learned cooperation, empathy and joy from my friends.

When I grew up and really wanted to learn how to do something, I studied. I don't remember being told how to do research in school, but when I needed those skills to complete a B.A., a masters program, and a doctorate, I knew what to do.

I can't see how I could have been any better prepared for life if my school days and school year had been longer.

Let's back off and give our kids time to be kids.

Each month I post the average residential sales stats for our region using MLS data. This month I have started to provide a bit different analysis that goes beyond month to month variations and looks at trends that occur within what statisticians sometimes refer to as the "tube" of variation.

In other words, whether this month was a few points higher or lower than the previous month is not as important as seeing the general trend that occurs across months.

Think of a marble bouncing around in a tube. If you were to take a snapshot at any particular moment, the marble might be near the top of the tube, or at the bottom, or somewhere in between. That sort of variation is not as important as being able to see if the tube is generally heading upwards, or stable, or heading downwards.

My latest graphics are intended to interpret our market activity in this way.



For a clearer full-size graphic, and further information about these market trends, please visit

http://bobfoster.ca/real_estate_news.htm

We have all heard of horsepower, but the farmer who rents the agricultural land on my property has gone one step further - cow power!


(Photo credit: Richard Turtle)

He has installed a couple of methane digesters that take the waste from the cattle (cow poo) and turn it into methane which is used to run electricity generators.

Are you ready for this? - On this farm alone they will be able to generate enough power to meet the needs of about 400 homes!

Wow! What great green technology.

Our local paper, has given me permission to republish one of their recent articles about this, so you can get more information about this project on one of my websites:

http://movingtothecountry.ca/the_environment.htm

Each month I post an update on the real estate market for the Quinte Region of Ontario, Canada at this address:

http://yourhomeinquinte.com/real_estate_news.htm

The good news this month is that there is strong evidence that market recovery is underway. After a series of month to month increases from January to April, and slight declines in May and June, July has proven to be one of the best months on record, with average residential prices back to within 1.6% of where they were at this time last year, and the combined dollar volume for all categories of sales coming in at a 32.4% increase over that of July 2008!

With low mortgage rates, and properties on the market that are still great values, it really is a good time to invest in real estate.