Continuing the trend established during the past nine consecutive months, residential unit volume in the month of January exceeded the prior year by approximately 57%, and average residential values showed a year over year increase of about 3.3% to $269,317. However, one should remember that these statistics represent just one month of activity into the current year, and should be expected, given the distressed situation in the market in January 2009. However, when taken in context with the overall trend of the past nine months, these results are encouraging and are certainly representative of the general "health" of the local market. In spite of the trend towards a lower inventory of available properties, we are fortunate to have a market which represents more of a "balanced" environment as opposed to a "buyer's" or "seller's" market, which in either case, is a precursor of roller coaster swings in market prices. In the main, I continue to believe that our area will experience moderate growth and general pricing stability.
The introduction in Ontario of the Harmonized Sales Tax will result in additional closing costs to both buyers and sellers. It is estimated that this increase will amount to about $1,500.00 to the average home sale in the Barrie area. While this increase should, and cannot be considered an insignificant amount, it is like all taxes... "A Fact of Life"...and over time, will simply become part of the pricing equation for both buyers and sellers. This increase represents less than a half of one percent, and pales in comparison to the general market price increases which we have experienced over the past ten years (about 5.7% per year). However, for those who are planning on making a move this year, taking action prior to about the beginning of May is probably wise. This will allow for the lapsed time between the negotiating of the agreement and the date of closing, which must be before July 1st ... the effective date of the new tax.
The Federal Government has just announced new home financing controls which must be followed by the banking sector, the intent of which is to ensure that Canada continues to be the "world example" to emulate in mortgage financing... avoiding the pitfalls which other nations... most notably the United States... have experienced, and which played a major role in the current world wide economic recession. Stand up and say "Hurray" for us... we have put long term "prudence" ahead of "short term profit" in our housing and financial markets.
These new changes, essentially tighten up some mandatory debt service ratios and application criteria used by the lending institutions when an application for a mortgage is processed. This will have the potential to reduce the number of approved applications for a first mortgage, but will also have the effect of keeping these same applicants out of financial distress in the longer term, and therefore, will result in their re-application at a later date when their financial wherewithal has improved. Specifically, the following is the generalities of the main criteria announced by the Federal Government of Canada. The three big changes:
1. Require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed rate mortgage even if they choose a mortgage with a lower interest rate and a shorter term. This initiative will help Canadians prepare for higher interest rates in the future.
2. Lower the maximum amount Canadians can withdraw in refinancing their mortgages to 90% from 95% of the current value of their homes. This will ensure that home ownership is a more effective way to save.
3. Require a minimum down payment of 20% for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties purchased for speculation (investments)
Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, stated that "there's no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps to help prevent one." (What he didn't say was... "After all, we are Canadian!!!")
Forward Predictions for the Barrie Area Market:
As we move further into this new decade, the monthly unit volume in 2010 will continue to equal or exceed the prior year values, and prices will increase marginally. Properties which are priced reasonably and present themselves well, will sell better than those which are simply relying on low prices to attract a buyer. Recreational and Specialty Properties will continue to be in demand, since they have a limited supply, but will take longer to sell and/or will be sold at values lower than previously. The introduction of the GO Service to Barrie, the general affordability of the Barrie area, and the imposition of a double land transfer tax system in the Greater Toronto Market will continue to fuel unit growth in the entire area in the short and longer term.
First time buyers will continue to play an important role in fuelling the growth of the local market. As a result, there is a dependence on the continuation of low mortgage interest rates. Rates continue to reside at the lowest levels in decades allowing more and more of this group to qualify for financing. Their influence on the market is significant since they create the initial impetus for move-up buyers to sell and then re-buy with a resulting multi-level chain of ownership changes. In addition, this move up phenomenon has the effect of strengthening market values in both the short and long terms.
The fall and winter months are upon us once again and with the colder weather comes increased demand for the resources of our local community services. This year, the BARRIE FOOD BANK is celebrating its 25th year serving our community, and the demand for their service has seen a huge increase as a result of the recent economic downturn. For further information on the Barrie Food Bank, please log on to www.barriefoodbank.org .
Now here's what we plan to do. In recognition of this ongoing need and in an effort to support the community we have called "Home" for 32 years, we will be givng a $250 donation to the Food Bank on behalf of anyone who completes a FIRM SOLD listing or purchase through us (Gary or Candi) during the months of October, November, and December 2009. In addition, any client who refers someone to us in those same months who purchase or sell a property as described previously, will also have a donation sent to the Food Bank on their behalf.
Please pass this message along to any family member, friends or co-workers that are considering the purchase or sale of real estate this fall, as a way of helping us to help those who need community support.
You will be able to follow our progress on Facebook, (www.facebook.com) as this assistance program unfolds. You can contact us through our web site www.BarrieHomeSearch.com or by calling us at our office 705-721-9111. We look forward to hearing from anyone who will be buying or selling during the next three months, and in the spirit of the season, we extend our "Thanks".
Gary and Candi
Following a series of successive months of unit sales volume which had been lower than the prior year, the months of April and May, 2009 equalled those same months in 2008, and the months of June, July and August surpassed 2008 levels by 12%. The month of June was also the largest June on record in the history of the Barrie and District Association of REALTORS®.
The Canadian Real Estate Association reports that the same trend has been experienced on a national basis, with August results bringing forward an impressive 18.5% increase over 2008 results, and the three months combined showing an increase of 15%.
August 31st, 2009 Market Results-Barrie and Area:
While the unit volume of the first eight months of 2009 is below 2008 levels for the same period by about 4.8%, this decline is all attributable to the results of the first quarter. During the period from April through August, unit volume in 2009 has exceeded the same period last year by about 5%, for a year to date total volume of 2,984 units. In spite of the pressure on unit volume by a market that has been portrayed by some as a "buyer's market", prices have remained relatively strong. At the end of August, 2009, average residential prices were running at approximately $263,000 versus a prior year value at the same point of about $264,000, and a year-end value of the same $264,000. While the spring months are typically the leaders during any year (see graphs on the Market Statistics Page of our website, www.BarrieHomeSearch.com, activity levels at all major brokerages are on the positive side of the ledger, and REALTORS® are generally expressing positive outlooks about the market and their personal futures. A further indication of this positive environment is the fact that there has not been any decrease in the number of members of the Barrie and District Association of REALTORS®; a phenomenon which typically occurs when the real estate market is in decline.
The number of active residential listings in August 2009 fell once again to 1,845 properties, which is about 10% below August 2008 levels. This is the third consecutive double digit decline in the number of active effectively tightening the level of choice which a buyer will encounter, while assisting in the stabilizing of average prices.
Approximately 55% of the total sales volume in the Barrie market occurred in the range from $200,000 to $300,000, with the balance spread over price points on either side of this range, and these statistics are consistent with those experienced during the entire year of 2008.
My Forward Predictions for the Barrie Area Market:
As we move through the balance of the year, the unit volume will continue to equal or exceed the prior year values, and prices will remain at about the same approximate values as we are currently experiencing. Properties which are priced reasonably and present themselves well, will sell better than those which are simply relying on low prices to attract a buyer. Recreational and Specialty Properties will continue to be in demand, since they have a limited supply, but will take longer to sell and/or will be sold at values lower than previously. The introduction of the GO Service to Barrie, the general affordability of the Barrie area, and the imposition of a double land transfer tax system in the Greater Toronto Market will continue to fuel unit growth in the entire area in the short and longer term.
First time buyers are the wild card in the speed at which the market will start to accelerate. Mortgage rates are at the lowest levels in decades allowing more and more of this group to qualify for financing. Their influence on the market is significant since they create the initial impetus for move-up buyers to sell and then re-buy with a multi-level chain of ownership changes being the result.
The City of Barrie has been designated by the Province of Ontario as a Growth Centre, and Buyers coming to the area can still expect to find a wide range of housing options at affordable prices With average prices at least $175,000 below comparable metropolitan Toronto values, buyers from the greater metro area will find a refreshing negotiating environment where reasonable offers are entertained by Sellers, multiple offers are the exception, and local REALTORS® work "around the clock" to bring the Agreement together.
The availability of rental housing has improved, but with mortgage interest rates at record low levels, and 95% financing available, the option to buy makes economic sense for everyone.
For further detailed information, contact Gary Grant or Candi Grant, Sales Representative, CENTURY 21 B.J. Roth Realty Ltd., Brokerage (705) 721-9111, email at ggrant@garygrant.ca, or visit the web site at www.BarrieHomeSearch.Com.
Following many successive months of unit sales volume which had been lower than the prior year, the months of April and May, 2009 equalled those same months in 2008, and the months of June and July surpassed 2008 levels by 11%. The month of June was also the largest June on record in the history of the Barrie and District Association of REALTORS®.
The erosion of local volume which we have experienced over the course of the September to March period was more a result of negative radio, TV, and on-line commentators painting the entire world, including Barrie, with the plague of "buyer resistance and seller despair". And to be honest, there are some areas where that belief is definitely true, including pockets in the United States ravaged by the sub-prime mortgage debacle. But Canada is not the United States, and while we certainly depend upon them as our largest trading market, we don't depend on their banks, and we don't depend on their people to buy and sell homes here in Canada, and in particular, in the Barrie area.
The media's (and recently some aspiring economist's) focus on treating national statistics as the gospel of health in this industry, stems from a total lack of understanding of what this business is all about. They have yet to understand that all real estate markets exhibit some form of cyclical effects... up and down, month to month; always have and always will. They also fail to recognize that real estate markets are local in nature, and every community, and even neighbourhoods, are different in terms of trends and pricing. Slower (or accelerating) activity in some of Canada's pricier and more volatile housing markets (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto) compared to year-ago levels will weigh heavily on the national average prices, but should not necessarily be construed to represent the local market conditions. The media, unfortunately, do not understand this phenomenon about the real estate industry, and paint all markets with the same national brush as that which may be in evidence in these major market areas, and further rely on month to month transition values, which based on seasonality and/or the impulsiveness of buyers, can skew the results. The economists look at our industry like the stock market where a specific stock or commodity has the same price whether it is purchased in Toronto, Vancouver, or St. Johns. That is simply not the case!
The political, automotive and financial uncertainties in the United States, China and Europe, have certainly caused local buyers to take a second breath before jumping into any major purchase. However, notwithstanding the recent actions of the Canadian government to provide more liquidity to the Canadian banking system, it must be remembered that here in Canada, our banks have been making record profits during 2008/2009 (and are therefore stable), and continue to create stellar operating results. The sub-prime mortgage industry is for all intents and purposes a non-entity in Canada, inflation is simply not a problem, mortgage interest rates are at all time lows, and our political climate is relatively stable. In Barrie, one only needs to travel any one of the major thoroughfares to experience construction in process... another sign that money is flowing and people are working. For those of us who have experienced "hard times" in the past... including the early ‘90's crash in the Real Estate Market, Life in this Canada of ours is pretty good, thank you very much!
2008/2009 Market Results-Barrie and Area
Prior to completing any comparative analysis of the year 2008 with 2009, it should be remembered that the year 2007 was the absolute best year in residential unit sales volume and average price levels ever experienced in the Barrie area and throughout the entire country. "Sizzling" would be the only way to adequately describe the level of activity and buyer appetite which prevailed, and to even match, let alone exceed, those results in 2008 (and 2009) represented a monumental challenge. Therefore as we moved through the final months of the year 2008, outsiders, such as the media and the arm chair critics, started to make those comparisons, and the industry was perceived as being in significant trouble. In fact, our 2008 actual results were similar to those which we experienced in 2006, and that was recognized by the same media and critics as a good year!
Locally, the number of residential properties sold during the entire year of 2008 showed a decline of about 19% from 2007, but while unit volume declined, residential prices continued to increase, albeit at a moderate rate of about 2.0 % (year over year) to a year end value of approximately $264,000. Of note is the fact that the "average days on the market" for all residential dwellings was unchanged during the year at 55 days.
July 31st, 2009 Market Results-Barrie and Area
While the unit volume of the first seven months of 2009 is below 2008 levels for the same period by about 194 units, this decline is all attributable to the results of the first quarter. During the period from April through July, unit volume in 2009 has in fact exceeded the same period last year by about 3%, for a year to date total volume of 2,581 units. In spite of the pressure on unit volume by a market that was being portrayed by the media and the arm-chair critics as a "buyer's market", prices have remained relatively strong. At the end of July, 2009, average residential prices were running at approximately $263,000 versus a prior year value at the same point of about $264,000, and as indicated above, a year-end value of the same $264,000. While the spring months are typically the leaders during any year (see graphs on the Market Statistics Page of our website, www.BarrieHomeSearch.com, the activity levels at all major brokerages are on the positive side of the ledger, and REALTORS® are generally expressing positive outlooks about the market and their personal futures. A further indication of this positive environment is the fact that there has not been any decrease in the number of members of the Barrie and District Association of REALTORS®; a phenomenon which typically occurs when the real estate market is in decline.
The number of active residential listings in July 2009 fell once again to 1,854 properties, which is about sixteen per cent below July 2008 levels. This is the third time in 19 months that active listings have fallen below year-ago levels, effectively tightening the level of choice which a buyer will encounter, while assisting in the stabilizing of average prices.
Approximately 55% of the total sales volume in the Barrie market occurred in the range from $200,000 to $300,000, with the balance spread over price points on either side of this range, and these statistics are consistent with those experienced during the entire year of 2008.
My Forward Predictions for the Barrie Area Market
As we move through the balance of the year, the unit volume will continue to equal or exceed the prior year values, and prices will remain at about the same approximate values as we are currently experiencing. Properties which are priced reasonably and present themselves well, will sell better than those which are simply relying on low prices to attract a buyer. Recreational and Specialty Properties will continue to be in demand, since they have a limited supply, but will take longer to sell and/or will be sold at values lower than previously. The introduction of the GO Service to Barrie, the general affordability of the Barrie area, and the imposition of a double land transfer tax system in the Greater Toronto Market will continue to fuel unit growth in the entire area in the short and longer term.
First time buyers are the wild card in the speed at which the market will start to accelerate. Mortgage rates are at the lowest levels in decades allowing more and more of this group to qualify for financing. Their influence on the market is significant since they create the initial impetus for move-up buyers to sell and then re-buy with a multi-level chain of ownership changes being the result.
The City of Barrie has been designated by the Province of Ontario as a Growth Centre, and Buyers coming to the area can still expect to find a wide range of housing options at affordable prices With average prices at least $175,000 below comparable metropolitan Toronto values, buyers from the greater metro area will find a refreshing negotiating environment where reasonable offers are entertained by Sellers, multiple offers are the exception, and local REALTORS® work "around the clock" to bring the Agreement together.
The availability of rental housing has improved, but with mortgage interest rates at record low levels, and 95% financing available, the option to buy makes economic sense for everyone.
August 31st, 2008 Market Position
The number of residential properties sold during the first eight months of this year has shown a decline of about 16% from the same period in 2007. The long hard winter and unsettled spring months have certainly contributed to these results, notwithstanding the fact that the spring of 2007 was a "Record Setting Period" and to meet or surpass those results would be a challenge at the best of times. While unit volume is down, Residential prices have continued to increase, albeit at a moderate rate of about 2.7 % (year over year) to a current value of approximately $265,000. There certainly are indications that the previous steam in the housing industry has abated, and we are in a period of coasting to the next destination, rather than travelling at breakneck speed!
As a result of the lower unit sales volume, inventory levels are above normal, and selection in most price points is favourable. The average time on the market from list to sell, has decreased to 52 days versus the prior year at 55. Approximately 57% of the total sales volume in the market occurred in the range from $200,000 to $300,000, with the balance spread over price points on either side of this range.
My Forward Predictions for the Barrie Area Market
As we move into the balance of 2008, the continuing short supply of serviced land, plus increases in labour, building materials and municipal development charges will continue to put upward price pressure on new home construction. This will in turn, assist in maintaining current price levels in the re-sale market, in spite of the reduced demand. Properties which are priced reasonably and present themselves well, will sell better than those which are simply relying on low prices to attract a buyer. Recreational and Specialty Properties will continue to be in demand, since they have a limited supply. The introduction of the GO Service to Barrie, the general affordability of the Barrie area, and the imposition of a double land transfer tax system in the Greater Toronto Market will fuel unit growth in the longer term. Prices will continue to escalate at a rate of about three to five Percent over the next twelve months, and mortgage rates will most likely continue at their historically low rates throughout the balance of the year and into 2009.
The City of Barrie has been designated by the Province of Ontario as a Growth Centre, and Buyers coming to the area can still expect to find a wide range of housing options at affordable prices With average prices at least $175,000 below comparable metropolitan Toronto values, buyers from the greater metro area will find a refreshing negotiating environment where reasonable offers are entertained by Sellers, multiple offers are the exception, and local REALTORS® work "around the clock" to bring the Agreement together.
The availability of rental housing has improved, but with mortgage interest rates at record low levels, and 100% financing available, the option to buy makes economic sense for everyone.
For further detailed information, contact Gary Grant, Sales Representative, CENTURY 21 B.J. Roth Realty Ltd., Brokerage (705) 721-9111 or email at ggrant@garygrant.ca.
Characteristics:
Through the late '90's and early 2000's, Barrie was ranked as the fastest growing City in Canada... surpassed recently by the retirement community of Kelowna, B.C. While growing at a slower rate than previously, the momentum has continued and the skyline of the City continues to change with development of new Residential, Commercial, and Industrial areas... supplemented by the planned reconfiguration of the Downtown Core into a vibrant waterfront experience. Barrie and the adjoining municipalities of Innisfil and Oro-Medonte continue to offer the sparkling clear waters of Lake Simcoe and local world class ski hills for recreational purposes. With today's emphasis on environmental conservation, these assets will continue to offer safe and convenient swimming, sand beach lounging, skiing, snow boarding, and tubing for all members of the family. Come and see for yourself... we're "Just Slightly Above Toronto"!
Gary Grant Personal Information:
Gary approaches each day with enthusiasm and a positive attitude. Hard work, sharing, and caring are ideals that he embraces and these ingredients have led to a proven success record in his real estate activities.
Experience, and Lots of it ... Gary has nineteen years of experience in the Real Estate Industry, and a prior career in the financial, information technologies, general management, and marketing areas with major international corporations. His daughter, Candi, joined him in his practice over two years ago, and they now work as a partnership with one of the largest and most successful Real Estate firms in the area.
A Successful REALTOR® in the Barrie area, Gary's client base has continued to expand based in no small measure on his attention to detail, and respect for the personal and unique requirements of both buyers and sellers. His clients have continued to return for their ongoing real estate needs, and they have also recommended that friends and family members do likewise.
On the Leading Edge... Gary always keeps pace with the many changes in technology, law, and business practices occurring within the Real Estate Industry. As a result, Gary ensures his clients are getting the absolute best service and representation available. Attendance and participation at provincial and national real estate conferences and seminars have allowed him to capitalize on emerging trends and practices; to the advantage of all of his clients. The tracking of market trends and statistics play a key role in Gary's approach to providing advice, and his extensive data base allows him to ensure that his clients are being well served with the information they need to make informed decisions.
Gary has chaired or been a Committee Member of the regional MLS® and Computer Systems and Professional Standards Committees during most of the past fifteen years and he has been interviewed and published on several occasions by provincial and national real estate publications. He is a past Director of the Barrie & District Association of REALTORS®, and participates in ongoing Task Force Committees and Mentor Programs.
For further detailed information, contact Gary Grant, Sales Representative, CENTURY 21 B.J. Roth Realty Ltd., Brokerage (705) 721-9111 or email him at ggrant@garygrant.ca
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