There continues to be talk and predictions in the media and the general public about where the market has been, and where is it going. Of course no one, especially me, knows for sure where the real estate market is going. There are too many unknowns- upcoming presidential elections, price of gas, global or local natural disasters, etc.
I can tell you what my gut tells me, which is that here in the Conejo Valley, the market may not behave like many other areas of California and the rest of the country. Even more so, the communities of Agoura, Oak Park, and Westlake are different than Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park. I am not judging those communities, just saying they are different.
There is also what I am seeing out in the field. There are a lot of buyers out looking, and making offers. I am seeing properties with multiple offers, and not just in the lower price points either. If a property is priced well, it is selling.
Instinct and observation are both good things. And my instinct about most things is pretty right on. But I wanted to look at some hard numbers, to see what story they would tell. So I looked at sales data for single family homes in Agoura and Oak Park, going back to 2005. I looked at all sized homes, both separated out by square footage of the home, and all together. The charts will be below, for you number and chart geeks.
But, to summarize:
In Agoura, in 2005, the average sales price for all single family homes was $1,049,179
In 2008, from Jan 01, 2008 through May 15, 2008, the average sales price was $884.917.
A drop of about 16%. (Feel free to check my math- math and stats were never my strongest subjects in school.) Most of that drop was this year.
In Oak Park, in 2005 the average sales price for all single family homes was $800,057
In 2008. same time frame as above, the average sales price was $739, 708., about 8% less. Interestingly, the drop was gradual, unlike in Agoura, where it came mostly this year. I have no idea why.
| all sized homes | $1,049,179 | $1,008,652 | $1,045,619 | $883,917 |
| 2500 sq. ft | $1,439,244 | $1,414,409 | $1,567,807 | $1,363,917 |
| 2000-2500sq. ft | $838,125 | $859,250 | $830,111 | $740,000 |
| 1600-2000 sq ft | $774,203 | $735,562 | $769,907 | $633,800, |
| <1600 sq> | $698,300 | $715,461 | $650,656 | $584,500 |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 YTD |
| all sized homes. | $800,057 | $797,290 | $756,017 | $739,709 |
| 2500 sq. ft | $975,273 | $965,929 | $840,200 | $1,085,000 |
| 2000-2500sq. ft | $816,638 | $833,060 | $847,500 | $735,000 |
| 1600-2000 sq ft | $730,316 | $730,955 | $715,000 | $637,500 |
| <1600 sq> | $664,000 | $732,875 | $642,200 | $608,250 |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 YTD |
*Information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Information taken from Rappatoni, VCRDS for the time periods specified.
So, you ask, what does it mean for the future? Being a realtor, of course I think it is a great time to buy! There has been enough of a drop and there is enough activity out there to think we may be near the bottom. But, well, my crystal ball is broken- I will let you look at the tarot cards and figure it out for yourself!!
Click here to SEARCH FOR HOMES IN OAK PARK, AGOURA, WESTLAKE, AND ALL OF VENTURA COUNTY.
A client and I were discussing the other day on which area she should focus her home search, 
Camarillo or Oxnard. Now, we all know that real estate prices have come down in the past few years- you would have to be Rip Van Winkle not to know that. Anyway, she was saying she thought she should focus on Camarillo, as she thought that area would drop more there than in Oxnard.
My first thought was that Oxnard would drop more, for a lot of reasons that I won't go into here. Then I thought, well, why don't I go back and look at some of the historical data, and see what the real story is.
We all know that numbers and statistics can be manipulated to prove just about any point you want to make. So to be clear, let me emphasize that I wasn't interested in making any points- just wanted to look at the numbers. As this particular client is looking at homes under $350,000 or so I based my search on single family homes, detached, under 1600 square feet. (A few years ago I would have laughed to think of anyone buying a home in that range. Now it is do-able.)
I looked sales for the calendar years 2005, 2006, 2007. At first glance, it seemed that the two areas had dropped at about the same rate, 7% in Oxnard, 8% in Camarillo. Then I thought a bit more. The market has definitely changed since the beginning of this year. Sales have picked up, but it seems the number of short sales and REO's has also picked up. So I did one more search, looking at closed sales from January 1, 2008 through April 30, 2008. The difference in the two areas was astounding. The average sales price in Camarillo for the homes I was looking at was $575,540 in 2005, and for the first few months of this year, was $530.891. In Oxnard in 2005 the average sales price for a 1600 sq. ft home was $548,259. The average for the first four months of this year was $347,000. Surprised the heck out of me! For you chart geeks, here it is below:
| CAMARILLO | DATES | # OF SALES | AVE SALES PRICE |
| 1/2005-1-2006 | 245 | $575,540 | |
| 1/1/2006-1-2007 | 173 | $585,516 | |
| 1/2007-1-2008 | 135 | $ 527,496 | |
| 1/2008-4/30/2008 | 23 | $530,891 |
| OXNARD | DATES | # OF SALES | AVE SALES PRICE |
| 1/2005-1-2006 | 858 | $548,259.00 | |
| 1/1/2006-1-2007 | 530 | $573,000.00 | |
| 1/2007-1-2008 | 310 | $511,000.00 | |
| 1/2008-4/30/2008 | 112 | $347,000.00 |
I guess the next question for her would be does she want to focus solely on price, or where the best future value of her money will be. And the answer is solely up to her.
Click here to SEARCH FOR HOMES IN OAK PARK, AGOURA, WESTLAKE, AND ALL OF VENTURA COUNTY.
2008 MOORPARK HIGH SCHOOL WINS ACADEMIC DECATHLON!
News From CAROL LEE, REALTOR, AGOURA, OAK PARK, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA
Moorpark High School won this year's National High School Academic Decathlon. Their score was the highest in the 26 year history of the competition. Second place behind Moorpark in Division one, which includes the nations largest schools, went to a team from Pearland High School in Texas, coming in third was Mountain View High School in Arizona.
Decathlon rules require the teams be comprised of students whose grade point averages are in the A's B's, and C's. The theme this year was the Civil War. To prepare for the competition, the team studied several hours a day, six days a week, starting in September. On Sundays, team members studied several hours on their own. They won the California Contest in March, beating out 53 other teams.
Moorpark High School is a California Distinguished School. Moorpark Unified School District consists of one preschool, 6 elementary schools, 2 middle schools, one high school, and one alternative high school. Click here to learn more about Moorpark's Schools.
Click here to SEARCH FOR HOMES IN OAK PARK, AGOURA, WESTLAKE, AND ALL OF VENTURA COUNTY.
OAK PARK MEASURE C-
INFORMATION FROM CAROL LEE, REALTOR, OAK PARK, AGOURA, WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA
Lots of buzz and media attention lately about Measure C. What is it all about? Basically, it is about funding for our local OAK PARK Schools.
Oak Park is known for its schools. Student achievement is among the best statewide. All of the Oak Park Schools are in the top ten percent of the State's Academic Performance Index. And our schools have received numerous National Blue Ribbon and California Distinguished School honors.
The reputation of our schools help maintain high property values. Great School help develop good citizens, and preserve our unique community character.
A little background is in order. In 2004, when the cut education funding, voters here in Oak Park approved local funding that spared Oak Park from the damaging cuts seen in other school districts. This funding EXPIRES NEXT YEAR!!
Measure C DOES NOT RAISE TAXES. It renews existing school funding at the same rate we currently have for the next 8 years. School budgets everywhere are getting tighter and tighter. Oak Park is no exception. We need to do what needs to be done to keep the caliber of our schools.
So, some facts:
In the past,measure C has been used to limit size, support two elementary school music teachers, provide up to date instructional materials etc.
Be aware, however, that except for administrative salaries, the money may be spent on anything the district chooses. However, the district holds itself accountable to the community through the independent oversight committee that monitors the expenditures of these funds and makes a public report to the School Board and community each year.
There is an exemption for seniors aged 65 and older. This may be applied for from the School District.
Measure C is on the June 3 ballot, and must be passed by a 2/3 majority to take effect. Remember, if you aren't part of the solution,you are part of the problem.
2008 CONEJO VALLEY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!
THE NEWS FROM CAROL LEE, REALTOR, AGOURA, OAK PARK, WESTLAKE VILLAGE AND ALL OF THE CONEJO VALLEY
Wed & Thurs, April 30 and May 1: 5 PM to 10 PM
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Carol provides superior personalized service. She is appropriately assertive, hard working, focused, and detail oriented. She combines acute business acumen with sensitive, caring people skills.
I have been living and working in Oak Park, CA, in the Conejo Valley, since 1990. Oak Park is located in Ventura County, in Southern California. My first profession was as a registered nurse (I am older than I look!), so I know how to listen to and take care of people. I have a Bachelor's of Science Degree from Boston University, and am very detail oriented. I never push or rush my clients, as I understand how large a financial transaction buying or selling a home is, and how scary it can be. I have very vivid memories of my first home purchase!
My value as a realtor in working with buyers is to listen to what they are saying, help them prioritize their needs, then go out and help them find that home at the Best Possible Price. With my sellers, I want them to get the Highest Possible Price, and keep as much of their money in their pocket as possible. To do that I market the property extensively primarily on the internet as that is where most buyers start their homes search, but also within the brokerage community. I have strong negotiating skills, and a strong sense of the local market and inventory. I am always honest with my clients, (sometimes to a fault!), and by their side throughout the complex process of buying or selling a property.
No deal is too small for me to work with a client- we all need to start somewhere! My business grows with referrals, so I always want all my clients to be happy. And they are.
My area of expertise is geographical, rather than a price range or type of buyer or seller. I work in an area of southern California called the Conejo Valley, in Ventura County. This encompasses the areas of Agoura, Oak Park, Westlake, Newbury Park, including Dos Vientos, and Thousand Oaks. I have also had clients and work in Calabasas, Simi Valley, Wood Ranch, Moorpark, Ventura County and into the San Fernando Valley as well.
I have worked with many single mothers, first time buyers, repeat buyers and sellers, and investors. I tailor my approach to meet the needs of the individual client.
FROM S.C., THOUSAND OAKS, CA:
Carol Lee is a realtor with persistence, kindness, honesty and integrity. My husband and I met Carol at an open house just as we were beginning our search for a home. Carol was interested in our needs, and had numerous options emailed to us that very evening. We took many months over innumerable outings to view homes, but I never once felt any pressure from Carol to rush our process; rather, she was extremely supportive, encouraging, and attentive to our likes and dislikes in order to help to focus and objectify our search. She is knowledgeable about the housing market and about the local properties, and resourceful in getting information for us. We are very grateful for her experience, and are looking forward to celebrating with her in our new home!
FROM K.B. OAK PARK, CA
Working with Carol Lee was a wonderful experience. She made me feel that she would take care of my side of the deal without any worries. She was completely on top of things and kept things moving without putting any pressure on me, which I really appreciated. It was a pleasure doing business with Carol and I will definitely keep her in mind for any future purchases.
FROM G. G. THOUSAND OAKS, CA: Carol, we cannot thank you enough for all your help with our most recent real estate transaction. We have bought and sold several homes in the past, but until we worked with you, we never realized what it meant to work with a true real estate professional. Read more about Buying or selling a home with Carol Lee.
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