Carolyn Pennington

OK, so here is my new proposal to Uncle Sam, in an interest to keep the housing industry on the road to recovery let's provide an $8,000 Federal Housing Tax Credit to sellers!

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't thrilled about the idea of the Tax Stimulus when it was introduced. I mean, did we not learn for our past mistakes about lending money to people who cannot afford to buy a home? But since Uncle Sam has decided to intervene on the buyers behalf, I say in for a penny, in for a pound, or in American colloquialism, in for $8,000 dollars.

If the $8,000 was incentive to promote home sales and reduce "risk" then why are the buyers getting all the breaks? Let's remember that sellers too have taken a hit and a big one. The reduction in the home sale prices, the low interest rates and in some cases, a tax credit, have encouraged buyers. In our area, multiple contracts are common. And this is due to the fact that there are so few homes for sale! You would think this is all good for sellers, right? Wrong!

Appraisals are coming in ridiculously low, and appraisers are getting less accountable. Where buyers and sellers are finding a balance in the sales price, appraisals have made a train wreck of non bank and foreclosure deals. Lenders and appraisers are so removed from the healthy deals (and increased competition between buyers) that they do not see and weigh the recovering market. How are we going to bridge the gap between rising demand, low inventory and scared lenders?

In an effort to encourage recovery let's involve the sellers. Since the Fed has already decided to get involved, I propose we offer a $8,000 tax credit to sellers as an incentive to sell in this low market! Should an appraisal come in lower than the sales price then the "tax incentive" will encourage seller's to keep moving forward to settlement. Of course this idea has to have sales price cap (I apologize to the million dollar plus home sellers out there...)

A healthy market is based on balance and so far, this recovery package is one sided. In an atmosphere of shrinking inventory and plentiful buyers, let's encourage sellers and see what happens.

Reston real estate rebounding? Home sales activity gains but prices still weak.

As a Realtor one is constantly asked how the real estate market is performing. All year the story has been consistent, the market seems to be picking up. And it is true. While we do not have the price strength of 2007, for the last 12 consecutive months we have seen steady gains in the number of contracts & real estate transactions in the local Reston, Virginia real estate market. So, in this aspect, the local Reston real estate market has been improving.

Are we turning a corner in the Reston real estate market? Have we reached "the bottom"? Let's take a look at 2007 to see if there any trends which may indicate the direction in home sales activity in Reston, Virginia for the remaining months of 2008.

Currently, there are 702 real estate transactions "under contract" or "sold" in Reston, Virginia for 2008 (single family homes, townhomes and condominiums). To put this number in context, last year at the end of August in 2007 there were 848 homes under contract or sold. This number was roughly three-quarters of all activity for 2007. While the number of transactions in the first half of 2008 lagged behind 2007 comparables, July and August 2008 contract activity increased over the same months in 2007.

Although the activity of homes going under contract shows some stability and even advancing over last year, the median price of homes sales in Reston has declined in all dwelling type categories. The hardest hit were Reston Condominium sales which saw the median price drop 18% over the same time period last year. Reston single family home sales were 8% lower than the same period last year and Reston Townhome sales performed slightly better losing only 5% over 2007 prices.

Subsequently, the overall total dollar volume of sales activity was down in every month of 2008. We await with much anticipation the dollar volume of the contract activity of July and August 2008. The strong performer was condominiums in July (40 transactions) and townhomes (39 transactions) in August. Single family homes were significantly less at 18 transactions in July and 15 transactions in August.

So what does this information lead us to conclude about the rest of the year? September and October will be tell tale months for 2008 Reston Real Estate. The reduced home prices, the increased federal loan limits, historically low loan rates, and other incentives should keep buyers interested. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors reported in June that contract activity was increasing. And reports:

An increase in the number of pending home sales in July is one positive sign of the transitioning real estate market. Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors® chief economist, stated that sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range, indicating "a housing market in transition." Yun said, "The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time homebuyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009."

As to the forecast of home prices, Yun adds:

"...that home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter. "Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices," he said. "In addition," Yun stated, "rising commodity prices and higher construction costs have resulted in a very unusual market today with existing-home prices being less than replacement building costs in some areas."

Some positive notes we hope will prove true for Reston real estate for the remainder of 2008.

About the author, Carolyn Pennington is a Realtor with ReMAX Supreme Properties, Inc.in Great Falls, Virginia. She and her family are long time residents of Reston, Virginia. She welcomes your feedback and can be reached at www.TheVirginiaRealEstateGroup.com.

• NOTE: The data gathered for this report was taken from the MRIS and as such is subject to those limitations, such as:
• - data is for resale homes only, "Under contract" or "Sold"
• - entered into the MRIS (excludes private transactions or new home sales not entered into the MLS)
• - broad categories (ie "single family" encompasses all sizes of single family residences)
• - subject to human error (mislabeling, townhome vs. condo).
• - Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.