The level of home sales is expected to show little movement in the months ahead, according to the latest projections by the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, fell 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.4 in June, which had risen 5.8 percent from May. The July index remains 6.8 percent below July 2007 when it stood at 92.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales continue to edge up and down. "Pending home sales are oscillating month-to-month, with the long-term trend essentially flat," he said.
Even with the latest pullback, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. "Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets," Yun said. "The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. The Northeast region retreated following a robust gain in the previous month, and soft activity was observed in the broad midsection of America despite very affordable conditions."
The PHSI in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent to 81.6 in July but remains 2.4 percent below a year ago. In the South the index was unchanged, holding at 93.7, but is 13.4 percent below July 2007. The index in the Northeast fell 7.5 percent to 73.6 in July and is 13.2 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index dropped 10.6 percent to 90.3 but is 6.5 percent higher than July 2007.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said there's been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. "Unfortunately, many people in high-cost areas aren't familiar with FHA programs, which is why we produced a toolkit so Realtors®, lenders, and other real estate professionals can familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program," he said.
"FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. We're working with regulators to improve the process, and the good news is that this is becoming a big help to first-time buyers," Gaylord said.
Yun said there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. "The economy is producing more, yet cutting jobs. A first-time home buyer tax credit and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers, yet buyer confidence remains low," he said. "Even with the Treasury Department's direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria. The housing market outlook is very cloudy."
Yun mentioned that the speed and timing of a recovery depends on local market conditions. "Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver and Houston over the next two years," Yun said. "In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in these areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters."
Below are the economic indicators for the week of the 21st, when you click on the link you can chart it out as well.
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Economic Indicators and Calendar by Realty Times Staff |
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