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I have received many emails concerning how it will affect our business “if” the government runs out of funding at midnight on Friday. First of all, essential military, Homeland Security, Boarder Patrol, Air Traffic Control, Federal Prisons, and the Post Service which is self funded, will continue to operate. However, approximately 800K Federal employees would be furloughed, shutting down FHA,VA, and USDA just to name a few.
FHA/VA would be inconvenient but would not hurt our business unless the shutdown was prolonged (30 days or more). We would not be able to get FHA/VA loans insured or guaranteed but we would still be able to approve, close, and fund those loans. USDA would be a little different in that, if the loan was not approved by the field office, it would not get approved until workers physically returned. This would delay closings unless the loan had been prior approved by both PrimeLending and the field office. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would not disrupt business as they are under conservatorship and not considered to be Federal employees (best of my knowledge). Ginnie Mae could be a factor as they would be shutdown but at this time I am not sure what the impact would be on issues pools that retain FHA/VA loans.
At this point, lawmakers are trying to reach a compromise since so much is at stake. We believe a last minute agreement will happen but that has yet to be seen. Bottom line is that we should be able to operate without any issues unless a shutdown happens and is prolonged. We’ll update you with new info as it becomes available.
Existing Home Sales surprised to the upside, jumping 2.7% to 5.36 million units. The highest level in eight months was fueled by distressed sales which made up 46% of the index. All “cash” purchases were strong as well, with investors getting in on the bargains. The West led with way with gains of 7.9%. The only loser was the Northeast, down 4.6%. Overall, we’re starting to see some cleansing of distressed properties and a welcomed pickup in activity.
Mortgage applications reflected much of the same as the MBA index increased 13.2%. Refi’s jumped 17.8% and purchases increased by 5.1%. Bonds, notes, and mortgage backs are doing better once again but the moves are muted. Surging oil prices and Middle East tensions are the driving forces. Speaking of oil, here is the latest chart of WTI crude. Stealth move of $10.00 in two days! Currently, the 10 year note is up 5/32’s (yield 3.44%), mortgage backs unchanged to up 1/32nd, and stocks off 70 on the Dow. Very tricky to handicap interest rate movement so be careful out there.
CPI, inflation at the consumer level, rose .4% headline in January while the core index (ex-food and energy) rose .2%. Speaking of hamburgers and gasoline, the two provided over two thirds of the increase in the headline number. Although inflation is showing trending action (increasing), the moves are nominal and well below the Fed’s target number of just under 2%. In other words, it’s not today’s worry. Weekly Unemployment Claims continued their volatile ways, jumping 25K to 410K. Looks like last week’s print in the 300 handle was all about the weather. Continuing Claims were also up 1K to 3.911 million. We see the labor market continuing to improve, albeit at a snail’s pace. LEI, leading economic indicators for January rose .1% following December’s .8% rise. 6 of 10 components improved led by interest rate spreads and a better stock market. Sloppy housing factors and weak labor markets provided the negative influence on the index. Last but not least was the Philly Fed Index which jumped to its highest level since 2004. Following December’s print of 19.3, the index rose to 35.9. Improvements in that region of the country were across the board including a 6 point gain in the employment component. Looks like Espo and our gang in Philly should be getting busy! Bonds, notes and mortgage backs are having a nice day. Currently, the 10 year note is right back against resistance at 3.58% (up 11/32’s), mortgage backs are plus 8/32’s, and stocks are up a dozen on the big board. We see the trade as a fear biased, flight to quality move due to geo-political concerns in the Mid East. The spreading effect (freedom fighters) out of Egypt and into surrounding countries coupled with Iranian war ships trying to get into the Suez Canal has many a trader walking on egg shells. With the data for the week in the rear view mirror (and for the most part neutral/bullish for bonds), the wire service will move the market on overseas headlines.
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