Marcus Burke

"Ok, well keep me posted if you see any good deals."

I hear this all the time from would-be buyers on the phone. "Sure," I say.

What I really want to say is: "Are you kidding me? I'm a real estate broker - and there are 22,000 listings in Orlando right now - half of them foreclosures going for a steal. Why don't YOU get back to me when you're serious about buying?"

But of course I'm not that rude.

The truth is there are hundreds of killer deals out there right now. Question is - how quick can you move if you have to?

For example, I just got back from a local condo complex on the golf course in MetroWest. I ran over there because I heard there was a condo for sale over there - a 2/2 for $44,900K. They've been selling for about $300K. I ran over there, because even I couldn't believe it. I had to see if it was for real. Maybe the place was trashed, drywall all over the floor, mold from baseboards to rafters. But no, it was perfect. New stainless steel appliances, new carpet and walls clean enough to eat off. Almost. Surely some mistake with the number I thought. I called the listing agent. No mistake. I met a potential buyer there about 15 minutes later. "I want it," she said (assuming dad agrees).

This is the best deal I've seen all year. And I've already been to a dozen auctions. It's a bank foreclosure that was corporate owned. And if she doesn't have it under contract in 24 hours I'll eat my proverbial hat - and the next guy in line will take it.

Maybe that guy will be you. But if you want a deal you've got to be prepared to move fast. And have cash ready - or a damn good loan. There's no "Let me think about it," no "Well I have to talk to my bank about a mortgage." Either you want it and make a decision today - or you're not as serious as you think you are.

The banks aren't playing around. And nor should you be. If you're interested in this condo or others like it contact us asap.

(See also this post by the Orlando Real Estate Pros.)

We'd all like new of course - but can you afford it? We all know that new costs more than conversion, right?

Not necessarily. Some developers overpaid for their converions at the height of the condo craze and are now having to sell them at rates which are actually higher than new construction.

On the other hand, owners of older resale condos usually have greater predictability of maintenance expenses and monthly fees because the construction defects of new units have been repaired. Defects? Ahh.. yes.. and plenty of them.

Buyers of brand-new condominiums usually enjoy the latest up-to-date facilities and amenities, but construction defects are a frequent problem, which sometimes causes complex legal battles unless the builder takes care of them. How common is this? I recently read a statistic that over 80 percent of California condo homeowner associations have sued their builder for construction defects. Perhaps that's just a California thing, but one things for sure: Outstanding litigation by a condo association can hurt the resale value of those condos. What's more, mortgage lenders might also refuse to make loans to buyers known to be interested in such condos. (As if it weren't hard enough to get a loan these days...)

By contrast, older condo associations often have gradually increasing HOA dues as the property ages and things like parking lots need half a million dollars spent on them. But a well-managed condo association will budget for such expenses and set aside adequate reserves so special assessments won't be necessary, right? Question is, how many associations are well managed, and even if they are, there's nothing to stop short-sighted or selfish condo owners voting against reserves - as my own HOA recently did. Of course, selfish owners and incompetent Boards are not just the realm of older associations.

So how about pre-construction? The ultimate investment. Get in there early at rock bottom prices and collect equity for a year or two without having to pay taxes or home owner dues - or even pay for it, right? Maybe. But what happens when the developer can't make his presale requirements and the project folds before breaking ground? What happens then? You get your check back in the mail. If you're lucky. And you're back at square one.

So what's the answer? It depends. It depends on you and your needs, but more than that it depends on the particular development in question, be it a conversion, pre-construction or new construction. You need to know the reputation of the project and the developer you're buying into, before you take a chance with your hard earned dollars.

You've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

For more info on Orlando real estate, see the blog of the Orlando Real Estate Pros.

I read a lot of commentary about how much "inventory" is on the Orlando condo market, and a lot of predictions about how long it will take to be absorbed. I think by and large, the predictions are pretty good, but they don't always take into account the fact that many condo units are disappearing, often hundreds at a time, as developers get out of the condo business and slide back into the rental business.

Some condominiums have been postponed, others have been axed completely. I can rattle off over half a dozen condo communities that have done a vanishing act like this in the last few months (read more here). The inventory of condos for sale has dropped by several thousand, and the previously much sought after rental property has increased by much the same amount. Take a look at the leasing signs that have appeared outside former conversions in the last few months.

So slowly, the tide is turning and the market, always a slave to market forces, will eventually reach equilibrium again. For those of you waiting for even better pricing, for even better incentives; for those who think the worst is still to come, you may be about to miss the boat - and along with it, the opportunity to acquire property when the going was good. Legions are those who will eventually join the masses to buy - just as soon as the next scramble for equity begins - (which will be just as soon as the media tells you it's okay to buy again). But by then of course, it will be too late, you'll be the wrong side of the curve, just another body on an over populated bandwagon. And then will come that familiar refrain: "If only I'd bought when... I'd be laughing right now."

If you want to be one of Orlando's future hyenas, the trick is to stop doing what everyone else is doing and get back to basics: Buy low, sell high. It might seem pretty obvious, but if so, why did everyone buy high? Those same investors are now being forced to sell low. Now if you have a house to sell before you can take advantage of the current "buyers" market, I grant that makes life more complicated, but if you're a first time buyer, there's really no excuse for waiting. And if you're hovering simply because relatives are telling you to wait, please shoot them, because developers are bending over backwards right now to sell you their condos. And their offers of free upgrades, waived HOA fees and countless other incentives will disappear overnight, the second the masses decide to join the party again. And that's a promise.

Everyone wants to get ahead. But it's impossible to get ahead of the crowd if you're a follower - if you wait for everyone to tell you that the time is "right".

Let me put it this way: Don't you just love it when you're driving into the city at the end of the day just as everyone else is trying to get out? You should try it some time. It's fun when you're doing 70mph eastbound (cough, by which I mean 55mph), while everyone else is doing 10mph westbound. The only people moving on I4 are the folk moving in the opposite direction to everyone else.

Real estate and stock trading are no different. In order to get ahead, you have to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. I have a friend who claims to make more money day trading before his 10am cup of coffee, than he makes the entire rest of the day in his own business. I asked him what his strategy was and he said: "Buy when no one else wants to buy. And sell when no one else feels like selling." It's simple economics. And it feels great. Unless, of course, you're a fan of the parking lot we affectionately call I4.

See also: The Orlando Condo Market: Part I - The Blackjack Analogy.

For more info on Orlando real estate, see the blog of the Orlando Real Estate Pros.

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