Cory Holman

Yes, I recently moved here from the West Coast, where the words short sale and foreclosure are normal dinner table conversation pieces. What I didn't expect was how rare they are here in Middle TN in comparison. Of my sales in CA, 50%-60% were short sales or buyers purchasing short sales and foreclosures. So what happened in TN? For one, we never had the huge 'run-up' in prices CA did, and the jobs picture here is a bit more stable. Its a lot easier to pay your mortgage when you have a paycheck. But what is striking is how everything that happens in CA (prices going up, prices going down) happen here in TN, just on a delayed basis. If someone could pinpoint exactly how many months/years, they could make millions using CA as the indicating factor!

To further emphasize my point, I was looking for houses to show in Brentwood yesterday between $500k-$600k, and of the 18 available, half were short sales! half! Those are people who are late on their payments and gonna get foreclosed on if the bank doesn't accept the short payoff. You and I both know there are not enough buyers for all those homes, and what does supply and demand tell us? Exactly. More foreclosures. More short sales. I think TN has a way to go in its price drops. Why? Because when the market was going to hell in a handbasket in CA in 2007, the Nashville market was raging with Nissan buyers, new construction, and people moving up. Yes we were one of the last (if not THE LAST) national market to the party. That means, in my humble opinion, we'll be last to leave too, and we've got a lot more price correction to go.

I must point out however, that I think this price correction will be from $350k and up. Just based on the average salary in America, and the "sort of stable" job picture in Nashville, lower priced homes here are gobbled up, and that demand will keep the supply down and prices solid. But for homes above that? Good luck! Anything over $417k and you have to get a jumbo loan, or a 2nd loan, and good luck getting that these days unless you have Fort Knox in your basement. I say all this to say that if you have a mid to high priced house, its got a ways to go in declining. I'm tired of hearing "Cory, we're gonna wait til next year and sell it for more." No, you're gonna wait til next year and sell it for 10% less. Thats the bottom line. We need to wake up to the trends and pay attention to the indicating factor, California. As that state begins to rebuild and prices stabilize, we will follow. If you have to sell your house, sell it now, not later...unless you can afford to hold on to it for 5-7 years. Over and out!

Blogging. Yes, blogging. Its just a bunch of people talking, and no one listening. Or so I hear. As Real Estate agents, in a crap market like todays, we are like kids doing anything to get attention, talking to ourselves, just hoping someone will hear...and buy a house from us. Right? Oh, guess that's just me.

Anyway, so do you know that time just before you fall asleep...where you think of everything you did (and didn't do)? Well its at those fun times that I've birthed my blog. I lay there in my warm bed, thinking about why I haven't created a real estate blog yet. Seems like a nice way to find clients in today's market (Read: Seems like free therapy).

So who reads blogs anyway? Especially Real Estate Blogs? How bored do you have to be to read a real estate blog. a real estate blog! Oh, well i guess real estate is a big thing these days. And i understand that. People are losing thousands by the month, and the people that aren't, are sitting on the sidelines like sharks smelling blood in the water. I talk to these people every day. There common line is "i'm just sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens." hahaha. Ok cowboy.

In the meantime, selling in this market is fun. Why you ask? Well, being in real estate only a year and a half, I don't know anything else, and this sure beats Civil Engineering (my degree). For example, I work as much or as little as I want, I take on as many clients as I want, and I make as much money as I want. Who out of my friends can say that? Exactly. None.

So why do real estate agents complain so much these days? My take on it is they were so spoiled between 2002-2005 that they forgot what reality was. Selling a home to a buyer at a fair price utilizing a loan they could afford. Its sickening how greedy human beings are, myself included. We are paying for that now during our cute little 'recession.'

The good news is, what goes down, must come UP! That's right, the market will come back...and by 'come back' i mean prices will rise. But not until homes stop getting foreclosed on. Why? Because the way every real estate agent in this country prices your house is by comparing it to recent sold properties in your neighborhood that compare to yours. Only problem is, lots of those are foreclosures, where the bank has reposessed a home from someone who couldn't pay the loan. Now they've got a decreasing asset, a $500k home-on their books, instead of a loan they are making profit on every month.

What do they do? Put it on the market with their favorite agent for $449,000. It sells in 2 weeks for $10k overprice and next thing you know, you've got a comparable sale in your neighborhood for $459k. Whoops, that hurts! Now your house is worth less. So you get my drift?? Until these little scabs go away, the market can't heal. Solution in the meantime? Stay above water and enjoy life.

Well, thats about the most general blog post I've read...but seems right because I wrote it. From now on, we will explore more in-depth topics that are controversial, cutting-edge, and fun to talk about. I look forward to our group therapy together.

OVER AND OUT.