Chris Johnson - REALTOR Daytona Beach, Florida

Since World War II Florida population has seen year-over-year growth and with some years rapid growth. During the real estate boom Florida had an influx of 1,000 people per day. However, a report come out today annoucing that Florida population has actually shrunk by 58,000 people over the past 12 months, in other words, we are loosing 158 people per day. This affects not just real estate but every facit of our ecomony. Job losses is a major contributor to this, but also public policy has been sited a factor as well.

It's been quite some time since I've posted to my blog because I've been so busy with showing and writing contracts. YEAH! As they say, if you throw enough jello against the wall...something is bound to stick...lol.

So, the number of residential sale in Daytona Beach, FL for April 2009 rose by 11% over April 2008. This is 4 consecutive months in a row. As a matter of fact, the Daytona Beach MLS inventory for residential properties have fallen another 100 properties to 5,323 as of May 3rd, 2009. These are all signs that the market is picking back up, but it doesn't mean we've hit the bottom.

For those buyers out there still on the fence asking "have we hit the bottom yet?", I would tell you that this data, although encouraging, is still inconclusive of reaching the bottom. One thing I do know, is that interest rates will not remain at these lows for too much longer. There's much talk about not just inflation but hyper inflation (double digit inflation). The only way to curve that is to raise rates. So, buyers that will need financing to purchase a residential property you might want to consider pulling the trigger sooner than later. Those of you that are Cash buyers, you have the flexibility to know when to "hold'em" and be patient for the perfect buy.

For those sellers out there holding out for the best possible price, know that although the data is showing signs of recovery, there are other national indicators that are showing signs that we are still going to be in this for the long hall. Many of the top financial analyst foresee the large banking institutions to be under capitalized which would create losses in the remaining quarters of 2009. I believe, based on what I'm seeing with loans, that banks will be forced to contract even further on credit and new home loans. I don't believe we've seen the worst of these financial issues. We will most likely see further foreclosures and inventory remain fairly constant. Although we've seen a drop in the Local Daytona Beach market, I believe it isn't a significant enough of a drop to waive the "checkered flag" and say the market contraction is over.

Only time will tell where this will end, but I can tell you...if you look hard enough there's always great buys!

It's been a couple weeks since I've updated everyone on the Daytona Beach MLS inventory mainly b/c I've been out showing property so much lately! It feels good to have the activity back in the market, but it sure is keeping me busy!

Daytona Multiple Listing Service (MLS) inventory level for Residential properties has been on a steady decrease for the past two weeks. In the middle of March 2009 residential real estate listings for Daytona MLS were 5,677. Today residential inventory level is at 5,483. This is a decrease of almost 200 residential properties.

In March 2009 there were 214 single family home sales and 288 residential properties sold (which includes single family homes.

I posted these findings to my website this week...

Single Family Home Sales In Daytona Beach MLS See Positive Gains It is interesting to note that over the past 3 months (Dec 2008 through March 2009) Single Family Home sales in Daytona Beach, FL have increase substainally over the previous year.

• December 2008 Single Family Home Sales In Daytona Beach MLS increase +13% over 2007.
• January 2009 Single Family Home sales In Daytona Beach MLS increeased +35% over 2008.
• February 2009 Single Family Home sales in Daytona Beach MLS increased +45% over 2008.
• March 2009 Single Family Home sales in Daytona Beach MLS increased +31% over 2008.

Daytona Multiple Listing Service (MLS) inventory level for Residential properties increased between week ending March 13th to March 20th. Tonight Daytona Beach MLS has 5,677 residential real estate listings. This is up 50 properties from last Friday.

So Far in March 2009 there have been 123 single family home sales and 55 residential properties sold (which includes single family homes.

I posted these findings to my website this week...

Single Family Home Sales In Daytona Beach MLS See Positive Gains It is interesting to note that over the past 3 months (Dec 2008 through February 2009) Single Family Home sales in Daytona Beach, FL have increase substainally over the previous year.

• December 2008 Single Family Home Sales In Daytona Beach MLS increase +13% over 2007.
• January 2009 Single Family Home sales In Daytona Beach MLS increeased +35% over 2008.
• February 2009 Single Family Home sales in Daytona Beach MLS increased +45% over 2008.

The latest housing data indicate home prices may be stabilizing, although butterflies over the economy could keep many potential homebuyers on the sidelines.

By MarketWatch

Home prices are closer to stabilizing today than at any time in the past nine years.

Based on the latest data, median selling prices for new and existing homes combined now equal 2.9 times median household incomes, nationwide. This is exactly the ratio that prevailed during the halcyon days of the 1980s, when sales and construction of housing were booming.

Three years ago, just before the housing bubble burst, this ratio was 4.5 times incomes.

Add in the fact that interest rates are much lower today than they were two decades ago and housing is even more affordable.

True, obtaining a home mortgage is tougher these days than it was in the 1980s. But I would bet that those borrowers who are willing to conform to the standards of the 1980s would not find it much harder to secure a mortgage loan today than they did back then.

What's your home worth?

For those of you who may be too young to remember, these standards included a down payment of 20% to 25%, several years' income-tax returns to document the household's income and, of course, a realistic appraisal of the home's worth.

By the way, the median income I use in calculating this ratio is last year's income. In other words, I am taking into account that we are in a severe recession and am assuming no growth in median income this year.

I am doing this even though median incomes have risen every year since 1970 - including the severe recession year of 1982. This should assuage the concerns of those who think I am being overly optimistic.

Good news from housing market

I am also aware that supply and demand are still out of balance. At current selling rates, inventories of unsold homes are still about twice as high as normal. And foreclosures may yet bring more homes onto the market, thus depressing prices even further.

However, the government's Homeowner Affordability & Stability Plan should help somewhat by lowering interest rates even further and by making conventional mortgage loans more available. This, along with the realization that many homes are now anywhere from 25% to 50% below their peaks, should get some buyers off the sidelines.

However, the number of prospective homebuyers will be limited by the concerns that people have over the state of the economy, their finances and their jobs.

That being the case, supply will continue to exceed demand and prices will continue to drop - unless Washington does one more thing: create and capitalize an agency that will offer to buy any home for sale at a price averaging no more than 2.9 times median income in each market. (Obviously, mansions will sell for more; cottages for less.)

As I first recommended a year ago and reiterated last December, this agency (call it the Home Owners Loan Corporation) would not have to actually purchase many houses; just offering to buy would set a floor under prices. Those homes that it did purchase could be rented until the market improved, and then sold for a profit.

By Irwin Kellner of MarketWatch. Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch, and is Distinguished Scholar of Economics at Dowling College in Oakdale, N.Y.