Cheri Smith

A recent article in The Bulletin indicates that the local real estate market may be shaping up for recovery. The number of homes for sale is roughly 50% off its peak of August 2007. Low home prices, low interest rates, and the tax credit incentive have all contributed to the increase in home sales. An inventory of 6 months is considered to be a balanced market. Anything less signifies a seller's market and anything greater indicates a buyer's market. For homes listed at $300,000 or less, which is the most active segment of the market, the inventory is currently 3 months. Bend's median home price seems to have bottomed at $195,000 in April of this year and currently sits at $220,000.

Read the entire article: Housing Inventory Plummets in Bend

During the month of October there were 1275 homes for sale, 239 contingent sales, 352 homes pending, and 210 sales. The inventory is down and the sales are up compared to the last few months. In fact, the last time we saw this many sales in one month was towards the end of August 2006 when the market started to cool. Roughly 250 properties were taken off the market last month. Some were terminated or withdrawn and others expired. Some of these properties might be relisted but this tends to be the time of year that many homeowners that weren't able to sell during the summer give up. This is why it's important to keep your home on the market if you're serious about selling. There's much less competition and buyers that are willing to look in the dead of winter are serious about buying.

Once again, most of the sales were in the $200,000 - $250,000 price range, although I have noticed an increase in activity in homes priced over $500,000. Twice as many homes over $500,000 sold in October compared to September. 12 homes sold over $1,000,000 compared to 3 in September. 5 of those sales were in Pronghorn, several of which were part of a bulk deal. The other sales included:

$1,050,000 5 beds/3.5 baths, 3709 sq. ft. home at 456 NW Kansas St. downtown.

$1,200,000 4 beds/5 baths, 6772 sq. ft. home at 3450 Greenleaf Way in North Rim on Awbrey Butte

$1,250,000 4 beds/4.5 baths, 5580sf home at 1518 NW 1st St. on the Deschutes River

$1,769,000 4 beds/4.5 baths, 6035sf home on a 1.27 acre lot in Sunset View Estates.

$1,800,000 5 beds/4 baths, 5500sf home at 437 Drake Rd.

$2,800,000 5 beds/7 baths, 10,881sf home at 61886 Bunker Hill Ct. in Broken Top.

Below is a quick comparison of the previous 6 months. Here's a link to the full stats: October 2009

Each quarter the MLS compiles year to date sales statistics that compare the current market to previous years. The 3rd quarter statistics have been released. The MLS breaks the statistics into groups including single family homes, townhomes/condos, manufactured homes, single family homes on acreage, manufactured homes on acreage, and bare land/lots. For this post, I focused on single family homes and bare land/lots. In summary, the number of single family homes sold in Bend is up 20.39% compared to this time last year but the median sales price is down 29.1%. For homes on acreage, the number of sales is up 27.85% but values are down 41.7% compared to this time last year.

Bare land has taken a much bigger hit. The number of lots or parcels sold is up 20.9% compared to this time last year but the median sales price is down 60.54%. The minimum sales price was $15,000 and the max was $1,099,000. There are some incredible deals on bare land and lots right now. A 10 acre lot in The Highlands at Broken Top that sold for $1,395,000 in 2006 recently sold for $425,000. One acre homesites in North Rim on Awbrey Butte that were listed at around $700,000 are now selling for around $300,000. Lots in unfinished subdivisions are selling at really low prices. 53 lots sold in the $20,000 - $30,000 price range.

This Italian inspired home in Pronghorn was originally listed at $2,695,000 in May 2008. It features a gourmet kitchen with Amarillo Pearl granite, off-white cabinetry, bronze fixtures, travertine tile, wine storage and an adjacent formal dining room. The great room has exposed beams, a gas fireplace with adjacent built-ins, and beautiful chandeliers. The spacious outdoor living area has a large courtyard and a fireplace. The Separate Casita will make your guests feel right at home. The 1 acre lot alone sold for $540,000 in 2006. Now this 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath, 4664 sq. ft. home is available for $844,000. It is a short sale.

During the month of September there were 1543 homes for sale, 264 contingent sales, 328 homes pending, and 173 homes sold. Sales were up in September compared to August but the number that really stood out to me was the number of homes pending. Pending sales are way up. I think it's probably first time buyers trying to close in time to get the $8000 tax credit. Most of the pending sales are in the $200,000 - $250,000 price range and within that range, the majority actually fall between $200,000 - $225,000. However, pending sales over $500,000 are also up. In August, there were 21 pending sales over $500,000. In September, there were 42. When you look at the chart below, know that active listings did not decrease by 200 from July to August. I recently changed the way I calculate the active listings so that time shares and manufactured homes being sold without land are no longer included.

A lot of buyers right now have a hard time accepting that it's possible to pay full price for a home and still be getting a good deal. Sometimes it takes writing a few low offers and missing out on homes in multiple offer situations for that to click. I've worked with several first time buyers recently and all were looking at homes priced at $150,000 or less. This is a hot price point right now. Multiple offers in the first couple of days on the market is the norm. When my clients ask me what they should offer, I provide them with info on recent sales and say, "Someone is going to write a full price (or higher) offer for this home and get it. Do you want it to be you or one of the other buyers?"

One of my favorite sales statistics is the average % of list price received. This shows how the sales price compares to the list price. For the month of September, homes that sold in the first 30 days after being listed sold on average for 104% of the list price. Yes, you read that correctly. On average, homes that sold within 30 days of being listed sold for more than the list price. Homes that sold after 31-60 days on the market sold for 99% of list price. If I focus on the hottest segment of the market, which is homes priced at $250,000 or less, it's 105% in the first 30 days, 103% after 31-60 days, and 97% after 61-90 days on the market.

Here are the complete statistics for the month of September: September 2009

I thoroughly enjoy running statistics so If you're curious about sales in a particular neighborhood or price range, send me an email. I'm happy to look at anything.