Cheri Smith

Today was a day for statistics, a class I didn't particularly enjoy in college. Real estate statistics are a breath of fresh air compared to epidemiological statistics. How is the Bend real estate market? Well, that depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller.

If you're a buyer, our inventory is still high and there's a good selection of homes in all price ranges. Add to that the fact that the median sales price is roughly back to what it was in 2005 and interest rates are still low, it's a pretty good time to be a home buyer. There are plenty of foreclosures and short sales to consider as well, although many of them that I've seen are in rough shape.

If you're a seller, it's tough out there. Depending on when you purchased your home, you might not have any equity and in fact, you might be upside down. Even if you do have equity, you have to compete with the foreclosures and short sales and that might mean not being able to realize any of that equity if you're serious about selling.

Here's a graph that reflects the changes in median and average sales prices from 2003 to 2008 (click to enlarge):

As you can see, the median sales price for 2008 is roughly back to what it was in 2005. Here's a table with the exact figures:

I also looked at bare land values. Land prices have come down even more than home prices. I initially ran these numbers because I know a couple that wants to buy a homesite in Shevlin Commons, one of my favorite neighborhoods in Bend. We're looking at a few lots on the market that were purchased in 2004 or later and they are listed at nearly twice what the owners paid for them. Yes it's a fantastic neighborhood but it's not immune to depreciation.

What I initially thought was most alarming was the dramatic change in the median sales price in 2008 alone. The median sales price in December 2008 was down 29% from January 2008. I dug a little deeper and found that this can largely be attributed to the fact that fewer homes sold in the higher price ranges, and by higher, I mean $300,000 and up. That's not to say that home values didn't decline in 2008, it's just not accurate to say that home values declined by 29%. We have to be very careful looking at the median sales price for just one month in particular because it's drastically affected by even one additional sale. For example, in December 2008, there weren't any sales over $575,000. If even one million dollar home had sold, that could increase the median home price by about $25,000. It is helpful in allowing us to look at the overall trend though.

Notice that from April to June the median price increased then declined from July forward. That does not mean that home values went up, it just means that more homes sold in the higher price ranges. In the 1st quarter of 2008, 150 homes sold over $300,000 (9 of those sold for $1 million of more). In the 2nd quarter, when the median price went up, 225 homes sold over $300,000 (12 were over $1 million). In the 3rd quarter, 187 homes sold over $300,000 (12 were over $1 million) and in the 4th quarter, only 108 homes sold over $300,000 (5 were over $1 million). Obviously the median sales price is determined by what is selling, and not as many homes over $300,000 are selling.

If you are curious about home values in your neighborhood, send me an email and I can run these same statistics for your particular neighborhood.

Pronghorn was recently recognized as America's finest golf community by Travel + Leisure Golf in the annual "America's Top 100 Golf Communities" issue. Sunriver Resort was also included in the list of America's Top 100 Golf Communities. Sunriver and Pronghorn were the only 2 courses in Oregon to make the list.

Editors at Travel + Leisure Golf reviewed and ranked golf communities across America based on six criteria including: golf amenity; residential architecture and style; location, including natural setting and proximity to cultural activities; management, service and programming options; nongolf amenities, such as a full service spa, equestrian center or marina; and environmental stewardship.

The complete list can be viewed here: http://www.travelandleisure.com/tlgolf/

There were slightly more pending sales and sales in December compared to November. The majority of home sales continue to fall in the $200,000 - $300,000 range. Not a single home sold over $600,000. View the complete statistics here: December 2008 Home Sales

I had coffee with the builder of Centennial Glen the other day and learned that they have reduced the prices substantially on their remaining homesites. Centennial Glen is a 59 lot subdivision off of Reed Market in southeast Bend that offers a convenient close-in location with easy access to the Old Mill District, the Bend Parkway and South 3rd St. shopping.

With the exception of one home, these homes have not been built yet so you can still choose your interior finishes. This is what they are currently offering:

$149,900 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1036 square feet, single level home with a 1-car garage. Home will include front landscaping, custom cabinets, and appliance package.

$159,900 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1306 square feet, single level home with 2-car garage. Features include a large walk-in closet in the master, tile countertops in the kitchen and custom cabinetry throughout. Includes front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers and back yard fencing. Builder will also include a washer/dryer and refrigerator.

$169,900 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1461 square feet, 2-story home with 2-car garage. Features include a spacious master suite with 2 walk-in closets, tile countertops and custom cabinetry throughout, gas fireplace in living room, front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers and back yard fencing.

$179,900 4 bedroom/2.5 bath, 1639 square feet, 2-story home with a 2-car garage. Features include a spacious master suite with dual vanities and a large walk-in closet, tile counters and hardwood floors in the kitchen, fireplace w/slate surround, and custom cabinets. Front yard landscaping and vinyl backyard fencing also included.

$184,900 This home has been completed. 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1306 square feet, single level home with a 2-car garage. This home includes a large walk-in closet in the master, tile countertops in the kitchen and custom cabinetry throughout. Includes front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers and back yard fencing.

$189,900 4 bedrooms/2.5 baths, 1879 square feet, 2-story home with a 2-car garage. This floor plan has a separate family room, gas fireplace, spacious master suite with walk-in closet, front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers and back yard fencing. Tile counter tops in kitchen and bathrooms as well as wood floors in kitchen. Seller will include a washer/dryer and refrigerator.

$194,900 4 bedrooms/2.5 baths, 1962 square feet, 2-story home with a 2-car garage. Features include a separate family room, gas fireplace, walk-in closet in master suite with master sitting area, front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers, back yard fencing, tile countertops in kitchen and bathrooms, wood floors in kitchen, plus a washer/dryer and refrigerator.

$199,900 3 bedrooms/2.5 baths, 2014 square feet, 2-story home with a 2-car garage. This home has a gas fireplace, walk-in closets in all bedrooms, front yard landscaping with underground sprinklers and back yard fencing, tile countertops in kitchen and bathrooms, wood floors in kitchen, washer/dryer and refrigerator.

These homes are priced as well as a lot of the foreclosures on the market. Unlike the bank owned homes and short sales, the builder is still offering a home warranty and you don't have to buy an AS-IS home.

I'm hoping this post will change the way you think about manufactured homes. For most of us, if we're honest with ourselves, the term conjures up images of trailer parks or low income neighborhoods. Since manufactured homes cost much less to build than stick-built or framed houses, that's largely true. Manufactured homes serve a great purpose and fill a need for affordable housing, allowing more people to experience the benefits of home ownership.

A manufactured home, also called a prefab home or kit home, is simply a home that is built off-site, usually in a factory, and shipped to the building site in a nearly completed state. I think their history is fascinating. It took awhile for prefab houses to catch on in the United States. They were being built in Europe in the 1600's. During the California gold rush in the 1800's, manufactured homes were shipped to the settlements by rail and miners and their families lived in them. After World War II, soldiers returning home were anxious to purchase homes and start families but the supply couldn't keep up with the demand. We needed homes that could be built quickly and inexpensively and manufactured homes provided both.

When most people think of manufactured homes, they probably picture the rectangular shaped houses lacking any sort of architectural interest. The manufacturing process has come a long way and prefab homes now come in many shapes and styles. See if you can pick out the manufactured home from the 3 houses below. As always, click on the photos to enlarge them.

OK, that was a trick question. All 3 of them are manufactured homes. Yes even the glorious Sunset Breeze house on the right. The home in the middle is a floor plan by Palm Harbor and well, the home on the left is what it is.

Now, prefab homes like the Sunset Breeze home are much more expensive than other prefabs but they're still much less expensive than building a custom modern home. The Sunset Breeze home was designed by Michelle Kaufmann Designs and Sunset Magazine for green, healthy living. A key feature of the Sunset Breezehouse is the glass-enclosed breezeway at the center which allows you to "let the green in" to your main living and dining areas. This seamless transition between interior and exterior is a key component of modern architecture. For additional specs on the Breeze home click on this link: http://www.mkd-arc.com/homes/breezehouse/index.php

If you're interested in more affordable prefab modern homes, check out the LV Series by Rocio Romero. The LVL150 is 1453 sq. ft. with 2 bedrooms/2 baths and starts at $45,225 for the exterior shell kit. The kit includes the plans and specs you'll need to obtain your building permit and construction bids. It also includes a construction binder, all the information your general contractor will need to build your home, and of course, the materials for construction including wall panels, roofing and siding. You're on your own as far as the interior goes but the cost of the kit breaks down to $31.50/square foot so you'll have plenty of money left over.

Hive modular homes do include finished interiors and currently start at about $160/square foot. For that price you can expect to receive all of the structural/exterior components (joists, foundation walls, windows, etc), electrical components, and interior components like cabinetry, plumbing fixtures, wood flooring, light fixtures, doors, and paint.

FlatPak also offers complete home kits in the $200-$300/square foot range, including everything down to the kitchen sink. FlatPak homes are a bit more expensive but they offer quite a bit of customization in the pricing. FlatPak pricing also includes general contractor service and an assembly crew.

The advantages of building a modular home are numerous in my mind. One is the time savings, which usually equates to money savings. Site preparation and home construction can take place simultaneously. Another benefit of modular homes is construction creates less waste. Because these homes are built in a factory with largely automated systems, there's more quality control, therefore much less waste. Finally, they tend to be very energy efficient. Factory built homes leave less room for error than site-built homes, so they tend to be tighter and better insulated. Many of them are constructed with SIP (structural insulated panels) walls, roofs and floors. SIPs have foam insulation sandwiched between to sheets of OSB (oriented strand board) or plywood. They arrive with window and door openings already cutout. They can hold in more heat or cooling than traditionally insulated walls.

One thing to strongly consider before deciding to build a prefab home are the CCR's and design guidelines in the neighborhood. If manufactured homes are prohibited, you might not be allowed to build your beautiful, modern, prefab dream home.