Cheri Smith

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a national average 5.17% this week, the lowest level since Freddie Mac began its weekly rate survey in 1971. Mortgage rates are incredibly low right now but will they stay that way? Well, it depends on who you ask. According to Bankrate analysts, more than 2/3 of analysts believe rates will fall during the next 35-45 days.

Steadily dropping interest rates are pushing more people to apply for mortgages and to refinance existing home loans. According to MarketWatch.com, applications to refinance existing mortgages accounted for 76.9% of all filings last week. When the real estate market was great, many home buyers took out ARMs, thinking they would sell in a couple of years and make a pretty penny. Many of those homeowners are now realizing their chances of selling are pretty slim, or they owe more than their house is worth. If you're in that situation and now plan to stay in your home for the long-term, you might want to consider locking in at today's attractive fixed mortgage rates.

In order to lock a low rate you must have a full application ready and on file. If you're considering getting a loan or refinancing, don't wait to apply for a loan until you see the rate you want, start the application process now.

Click on the link for a graph of mortgage rate fluctuations.

Interest Rates

November was a slow month with only 69 homes selling compared to 132 home sales last November. There are still a lot of short sales and bank owned properties getting attention but they're not the only homes selling.

The home that sold for $150,000 was not a short sale or banked owned property. It was a 3 bedroom/2 bath, 1108 sq. ft. home in NE Bend with a motivated seller that priced their home well and it sold in 48 days. That sales price equates to $135/sq. ft. Take a peek at the home: http://coar.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Centraloregon&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=%2Fed2a85PExTLX6L7HCOW1IENdwKYxTgmSou%2BmXj1Nm0%3D&KeyRid=1

The only home to sell in the $550,000 - $599,000 range was a 3 bedroom/2 bath, 2239 sq. ft. home in Sunrise Village on a 0.83 acre lot with Cascade Views. This home was only on the market 35 days and sold for $599,000 at $267/sq. ft. The average sales price per sq. ft. in Sunrise Village is $254. I believe the oversized lot and Cascade views helped this home sell. http://coar.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Centraloregon&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=%2Fed2a85PExTLX6L7HCOW1FKxupIstQx%2BO1ZyUT0lrco%3D&KeyRid=1

In the $850,000 - $899,000 range, a 3 bedroom/3.5 bath, 4006 sq. ft. home on Awbrey Butte sold for $895,000 after 99 days on the market. This breaks down to $223/sq. ft. This was a wonderful contemporary style home but it did not have Cascade views and this price wasn't a steal by any means. I think the key to this home selling was the unique factor: it was a sleek contemporary style and in addition to a 3-car attached garage it had a detached 2-car garage and was recently renovated. http://coar.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Centraloregon&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=%2Fed2a85PExTLX6L7HCOW1O3nJR21Eh4CxCz62DMMGuU%3D&KeyRid=1

Now for the million dollar babies. 2 homes sold over $1million last month. One was a 5 bedroom/4 bath, 4132 sq. ft. home recently remodeled on State St. Location, location, location. It was on the market 469 days but did sell for $1,020,000 at $246/sq. ft. http://coar.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Centraloregon&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=AiXq%2FPOXJDwfSclTsWLH%2BUr3T2xBuGVleUlNCW5Qno0%3D&KeyRid=1 The other is what I call the quintessential Awbrey Butte home. Northwest lodge style, Cascade views, 3 bedrooms/2.5 baths, 4180 sq. ft. sold for $1,175,000 after 155 days on the market. Price per sq. ft. was $281. http://coar.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Centraloregon&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENT=%2Fed2a85PExTLX6L7HCOW1G7c1201kI%2FwcSxTMOLQoOc%3D&KeyRid=1

If you would like more information on homes that sold in a particular price range, email me your questions and I can provide info similar to what I've listed above.

Here are the complete November 2008 Statistics: November 2008 Statistics

I recently performed a CMA for a homeowner and determined a list price in the $225,000 - $250,000 range. The homeowner was surprised the value was so low because her most recent tax statement provided a "real market value" (RMV) of $290,000. She was under the impression that the RMV that the county assigns is fairly accurate and occasionally, even low. She is certainly not the only homeowner that believes this to be true.

The RMV is determined with an appraisal of the property by the county in January of the current tax year. By the time you receive your tax statement in October property values have usually changed and in our case in Deschutes County, they've probably gone down. Furthermore, the RMV determined by the assessor usually lags behind actual sales prices. For example, in 2005 and 2006, homes were selling for about 25% more than the RMV. Now they're selling for roughly 75% of the RMV. I found it interesting that the RMV in the higher price ranges tended to be more accurate. The table below includes Bend home sales in October 2008 and compares the sales price to the RMV determined by the county. I randomly selected properties in all sections of Bend but most of the sales seemed to be in NW Bend. None of these sales were short sales or bank owned properties.

October 2008 statistics have been compiled. The first thing I noticed is the number of homes on the market is 2031, down from last month by nearly 200 and down about 430 from July 2008. Of these active listings, about 200 are short sales or bank owned properties and 41 of them are listed at $200,000 or below. In fact, I have some buyers at this price point and it's very difficult to find a home for them that's NOT a short sale or bank owned. Short sales can be great deals but purchasing a home through this process can take months and you have to purchase the property AS-IS. It's too overwhelming for these first time buyers.

Of the 66 contingent properties, 36 are short sales. In other words, these sellers have received offers but are waiting for approval from their lender. 13 of the 134 pending properties are short sales or bank owned and 15 of the 122 sales last month were short sales or bank owned.

I ran some historical numbers on the luxury home market and was surprised by the results. The market for homes over $1million seems very slow to me with only 3 sales and 2 homes pending over $1million last month. Back in October 2005, only 2 homes over $1mil sold and in October 2006 only 4. Based on those figures, the high end market is doing alright. Truthfully, with prices coming down as much as they have, many of the homes that were priced over $1million are now priced much lower so I probably should revise my definition of the luxury market to include homes priced at $700,000 and above. Including those homes, there were 9 sales last month. In October 2005 there were 12 sales over $700,000 and in October 2006 there were 9. I was surprised to discover that.

You can view the complete statistics here: October 2008 Real Estate Statistics

Yes I've been a total slacker when it comes to posting the real estate statistics and I apologize. Because of that you get a double whammy - August and September stats all in one post. For me, business picked up a lot in August and September so I was not surprised to see that home sales overall in Bend were up in September. In fact, home sales for September were the highest we've seen in a year. I'm proud to say that I did my part to bring those numbers up. Actually my buyers did but I was happy to assist them.

In August, pending home sales were up about 18% in the west compared to 1 year ago. A large portion of that can be attributed to the California market which saw a roughly 13% increase in sales in August compared to 1 year ago. I wasn't sure how many of those pending sales would actually close since many buyers are struggling to get approved for loans and other buyers have been adversely impacted by the Wall St crisis. Fortunately many of them did. I don't expect this trend to continue though with all of the uncertainty in the financial markets. Elections also tend to make people wary.

August Statistics available here: August 2008 Sales

September Statistics available here: September 2008 Sales