Curt Darragh

Statistics... funny thing about numbers, if you're not careful it's very easy to mis-understand them! Earlier in the year I made a post stating we may be nearing the bottom of this down market. The average number of sales was only down 2.3% compared to the year before and the average sales price was actually up .10% for the same period (compared to the -26.9% in December).

We had been seeing a 24% decline (approx.) in average sales prices for months then it went up .10% in January '09. How come?

Did the new president cause the market to EXPLODE? Nope!
Did all those tax dollars spent to save the banks (TARP) finally trickle down? Nope!

Simple math, that's what happened. The average selling price in Dutchess County, NY is $372,413.00 (as of January 09). But we had something we don't often see take place, we had one home sell for $6,000,000. Yes, that's 6 MILLION DOLLARS! As you can imagine that skewed the average sales price. The reality is we are seeing signs this declining market is finally slowing. The number of homes for sale declined (less supply), the number of purchase offers is up (more demand) and the days on market is holding. All good signs, but in the end, the average sales price is still decreasing about -24% (year over year). So we're not out of the storm yet, but the sun appears to be peaking its head through. Lets hope the spring market brings a turn in prices.

February 2009 Sales Statistics

market statistics provided by Mid-Hudson MLS

After months of doule digit decreases in average sales prices, increases in inventory and days on the market we finally see some stabilization. Below are our current statistics

As you can see, closed sales is only down 2.3% which is a significant difference compared to the 26% last month. Now this may be a blip in the statistics, we'll need to see next months figures to know for sure but its a nice start!

Below are the most current market stats for the Dutchess County, NY area. Notice the average sales price dropped over 13%, that number by itself doesn't mean much, but when you look at last months numbers, the decrease was over 8%. There seems to be a pattern emerging and it doesn't look good for sellers who purchased in 2004-2006 during the peak. Up to this point we've been seeing 2-3% decreases in the average selling prices (not bad, some may even say the market needed it), last month it jumped from the 2-3% to over 8%. Many were hoping this was just a statistical hick up, but with this months numbers in that doesn't seem to be the case. So what does all this mean..... well to put it frankly IT'S A BUYERS MARKET. Not news for any of you I'm sure. If you've read a newspaper, turned on the news or logged onto the internet, I'm sure you've seen all the "THE SKY IS FALLING" media frenzy. You know... "The Housing Crisis" or my favorite "The Housing Recession". The reality is this is just part of the process. Real Estate runs in cycles, it goes up and it goes down and we are currently in a down market. But if you go back to April 2002, the average selling price was $237,802, now compare that to April 2008 $345,223. That's a 45% increase in 5 years. As my favorite stock predictor puts it "we're taking a little off the top". I can't predict the future but I believe that 2008 will be the hardest hit in this down market and we'll see the sales prices begin to decrease at a slower rate in early 2009 with the market bottoming out in late 2009 - early 2010. So good news for buyers right.... not so fast. This is an election year, and keeping the economy above water will be front and center, but come December things will change. The dollar has been taking it on the chin for a while now and the Fed can't continue to lower rates without sending our economy into a tailspin. As the dollar weakens the cost of oil increases. As oil/gas increase, inflation will set in. I expect as soon at this election is over you'll see interest rates rise, probably not double digits but likely in the 7-8% range. So if you find right house, don't snooze or you may lose! This year will provide some of the best buying opportunites and rates aren't likely to stay this low for ever.

April 2008 Sales Statistics