Danilo Bogdanovic-Real Estate Consultant -Loudoun and Fairfax County

Here's an analysis of the Loudoun County real estate market 2008 YTD versus the same period 2007, specifically supply and demand (aka inventory and buyer demand).

Here are the supply/inventory numbers:

• The number of listings that came on the market 2008 YTD is 4544.
• This is a 10 percent drop from the same period in 2007, which had 5074 listings come on the market

Here are the sold/buyer demand numbers:

• The number of homes that have sold* in 2008 YTD is 2491.
• This is a 5 percent increase from the same period in 2007, which had 2358 homes sell*
• The big jump in buyer demand came in May (check out the May figures here)

*by contract date

What the numbers tell us:

• The rate of new inventory coming on the market has decreased while buyer demand has increased
• This is good news for the Loudoun County real estate market and we should all hope that this trend continues
• This goes along with a previous observation that the Loudoun County real estate market is showing signs of strengthening (check out the post about that here)

These numbers confirm what buyers and I are noticing and experiencing first-hand while out in the field. We're seeing fewer choices and increased competition from other buyers. The properties that are priced well are getting picked up pretty quickly. The really good deals are getting offers within within a week or two of being on the market. Many of the great deals are getting multiple offers.

I will be posting the Loudoun County inventory and buyer demand numbers and analysis by zip code over the next few days over at http://www.LoudounScene.com. Come by and take a look when you get a chance.

There's a great article that ran this past Saturday in the Washington Post entitled "Playing Lowball - From the Reasonable To the Ridiculous, A Guide To Small Offers". It goes over tips on how and when lowball offers are appropriate and best submitted by buyers. It also goes over tips on how to deal with lowball offers if you're a seller.

If you missed the article, click here.

(Thank you Renae for interviewing and quoting me in the article)

After being co-author of LoudounStats.com and LoudounForeclosures.com, I have decided to start a new chapter of blogging and discussing Loudoun County real estate at LoudounScene.com while continuing on with LoudounForeclosures.com on my own. I will no longer be co-author of LoudounStats.com.

I hope that you find the information on Loudoun Scene useful and applicable to you in whatever stage of real estate you're in - just curious, renting, owning, selling, buying or just keeping up with what's going on with the Loudoun County real estate market.

If you ever have a question or concern that has not been addressed by a post on the blog, just contact me and I'll be happy to answer it for you and post it up on the blog for reference by you and other readers.

And please sign up for the RSS feed or email updates (right hand column of page) so that you can save time by getting the posts and comments sent directly to you.

Thanks for stopping by and joining in the discussion!

-Danilo

If you think you've found a great deal on a property, you're probably not the only one who's found it. Because of that, you may be in competing offers. If you are, your Buyer's Agent will probably say something to you like:

"The seller/listing agent has asked for your 'best and final offer' by 5pm tomorrow."

Attention buyers: "Best and Final Offer" means just that - "Best" and "Final". Once you submit your "best and final", the seller will choose the one that they wish to go with and that's it.

There is no coming back later and saying:

"But I would have gone up as high as the other offer, if not even higher!"

If you could have, then you should have as part of your "best and final" offer. The seller will not (and legally can not) get out of a ratified contract with another party simply to accept your "after the fact" offer because it's higher or better.

Some buyers think that they listing agent may be bluffing in order to get you to come up in price. You could be right, but you need to know that the second that agent gets caught lying, they will be immediately be brought up on an ethics complaint and every agent/broker in the area will know about how unethically and dishonestly they conduct themselves. You think they will ever be able to bluff or get more out of a buyer again?

In reality, agents do not bluff for this and other reasons so treat a "best and final' offer request as just that. And know that there are other offers on the table that you're competing with so now is not the time to try and get the '"best deal" - the property is obviously a great deal already.

My advice is this...If you're in competing offers and get a request for your "best and final" offer, go to the top of what you are willing to/comfortable paying for the property. If you end up losing the deal because someone went above your highest amount, then you won't be upset because you were already at the top of what you wanted to pay. But if you lose a property and a great deal over $5K or $10K knowing that you didn't offer as much as you were willing to, you'll be upset at yourself for a while to come.

-Danilo

Related Articles:

"Multiple Offers In Loudoun County Not As Rare As You'd Think"

An ever increasing number of properties listed for sale in Loudoun County these days are "short-sales". It used to be that most were bank-owned and some were short-sales. Nowadays, it's about 50/50. It seems that home owners are viewing a short-sale as a possible option "out" now more than ever before.

But what affect do short-sales have on buyers and the Loudoun County real estate market?

Many of the emails and calls I get from buyers are in regards to a property they think "is a great deal". But it's a short-sale. Yes, they can be a great deal. But they're not your typical real estate transaction.

• Has the seller already contacted their bank and started the negotiation process?
• Have they submitted all of the necessary paperwork?
• Was it completed correcty?
• If there is more than one lender/bank involved, have all parties been contacted?
• If there is a second (or third) lender/bank, is there a good chance that they'll agree to basically walk with nothing?
• Are there outstanding judgments or other liens against the property?
• Does the buyer have 2, 3 or even up to 6 months to wait for an answer?
• Does the buyer have the time and money to make all the necessary repairs on their own (short-sales are always sold "as is")?

In many instances, the answer to at least some of these questions is "no". Well, the answer has to be "yes" to all of them in order for a short-sale to have a decent chance of actually selling/closing. Otherwise, the buyer may be dissapointed at the negative outcome and/or be homeless because they had to be out of the current residence and don't have a new place to call "home".

Another thing I've noticed is that many of the short-sales seem like they're not as bad off as they lead the bank and public to believe. They have a new Mercedes parked out front, 2 or more top-of-the line plasmas inside, a high-end surround-sound system in the family room or basement, lots of cool new computers and tech gadgets (that aren't cheap), they just got back from a vacation in the Caribbean, etc.

One thing to remember is that the bank will audit the borrower to the Nth degree. If they find that the borrower is not in extreme financial hardship or has spent their money on non-essential things (see above paragraph), they will most likely reject a short-sale. This leaves you, the buyer, without a home and up to several months of your time wasted while waiting for a response.

Overall, short-sales are giving many buyers a false sense 0f "I can get a great deal and without many headaches". That's not entirely true. Unless you have a lot of time, patience and energy to deal with a short-sale, stick with bank-owned properties, relocation company owned properties and "regular" resales.

For more information, statistics and resources on the Loudoun County, VA real estate market, check out LoudounStats.com and LoudounForeclosures.com.

-Danilo