Dan Pittsenbarger

Ok, here is your Aug 2008 Whatcom County Real Estate Stat Summary.

The prices on homes that are actually selling are coming down but only by 3 to 4% - which isn't bad compared to other markets across the country. Please keep in mind that the above stat is a countywide average and there are some parts of the county doing better than others. See below for the areas you are interested in. What's surprising is that the prices of homes that are coming on the market are still going up in many areas of Whatcom County. This is not a good selling strategy and the price gap between what's coming on the market and what's actually selling is getting bigger. Thus we see lots of homes on the market for a long time and many not selling at all. One of the most interesting/challenging aspects of our local market is that countywide the number of homes/units actually selling is way down from a year ago. So, although we are doing fairly well on holding our local prices, the total number of homes/units selling is down by 24.6% for the year compared to Jan through Aug last year. It's not true that our market is flooded with inventory. Both the number of currently active listings and the total number of listings for the year are down for 2008 compared to 2007. For those wanting to get top dollar for their homes, it's not a good time to sell. For those that need and/or want to sell the good news is that homes are selling but you will need to be at or below market value for you neighborhood or it will sit on the market for a long time. For anyone thinking of buying - now would be a great time. Interest rates are low and there are motivated sellers out there along with short sale and foreclosure opportunities. For those that are interested a more detailed summary follows after an explanation of how the attached report is organized.

OK here's my summary: Keep in mind this report is comparing Jan through Aug 2008 data to Jan through Aug 2007 data. This information is based on the MLS stats only and doesn't include transactions that took place on unlisted properties.

Countywide Active Listings Stats.

Despite reports of the market being flooded with inventory, in fact fewer homes have been listed this year to date compared to the number of homes listed during the same time last year (3,379 homes in '08 compared to 3,872 homes in '07 Jan-Aug - a 12.7% decrease). And the total number of active listings on the market during the month of Aug is down from 1,938 homes during Aug '07 to 1,815 homes on the market in Aug '08 (a 6.3% decrease). Even though there have been 12.7% fewer homes put on the market for the year, there's only a 6.3% decrease in the total number of active (homes that have not yet sold) listings for the month of Aug which indicates as most of you know that homes are moving slower this year compared to last.

Surprisingly, the Year to Date (YTD) Median List (asking) Prices are up from $345,000 in ‘07 compared to $347,700 in ‘08 - a 0.7% increase county wide. The Ave. List Prices are also up from $419,682 in '07 compared to $444,069 so far this year - a 5.8% increase in average asking price countywide.

County wide market times are up from 100 days to 113 days on the market - a 13% increase in market time.

So you can see that asking prices county wide are holding pretty well. However, you will see different results in the Sold section on the report that show that what seller's are actually getting for their homes is down. You will also see differences in the various MLS sections in the county. Some areas are doing better than others. Also it seems that both buyers and sellers are waiting to see what happens with the election and the financing/economic situations that are in the news this year. As the number of new listings coming on the market during the month of Aug is down from 531 New listings countywide in Aug of '07 to 400 in '08 - a 24.7% decrease.

Area Specific Summary for Active Listings:

Area 850 - Sudden Valley Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug- 46 in '07to 32 in '08 - Down 30.4%

YTD New Listings - 313 in '07 to 253 in '08 - down 19.1% for the year

Total Active Listings - 155 in '07 to147 in '08 - only a 5.2% decrease which compared to the much larger decreases in the number of homes coming on the market indicates that homes are moving much slower.

The YTD Med. List Prices $309,900 in '07 to $325,00 in '08 - Up 4.8%

The YTD Aver. List prices went from $345,030 in '07 to $350,316 in '08 - Up 1.5%

Average Days on Market has gone from 88 days in '07 to 114 days in '08. - Up 29.5%

Area 860 - Bellingham Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 190 in '07 to 158 in '08 - Down 16.8%

YTD New Listings - 1,526 in '07 to 1,342 in '08 - Down 12.1%

Total Active Listings throughout Aug - 691 in '07 to 657 in '08 - Down 4.9%

The YTD Median List Prices - $369,900 in '07 to $379,950 in '08 -Up 2.7%

The YTD Average List Prices - $473,001 in '07 to $504,747 in '08 - Up 6.7%

The Average Days on Market went from 103 days to 111 days - Up 7.7%

Area 865 - Meridian

Meridian in my opinion doesn't really have enough activity to do much of a meaningful analysis on until the end of the year.

Area 870 - Ferndale Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 75 in '07 to 57 in '08 - Down 24%

YTD New Listings - 558 in '07 to 485 in '08 - Down 13.1%

Total Active Listings - 263 in '07 to 246 in '08 - Down 6.5%

YTD Median Prices - $349,900 in '07 to $369,000 in '08 - Up 5.5%

YTD Ave. Prices - $395,730 in '07 to $427,016 in '08 - Up 7.9%

Market time went from 100 days to 96 days - Down 4% in market time.

Area 880 - Blaine/Birch Bay Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 118 in '07 to 61 in '08 - Down 48.3%

YTD New Listings - 633 in '07 to 537 in '08 - Down 15.2%

Total Active Listings - 369 in '07 to 328 in '08 - Down 11.1%

YTD Median List prices - $329,999 in '07 to $329,900 in '08 - very small decrease

YDT Ave List prices - $450,670 in ‘07 to $470,170 - Up 4.3%

Market time went from 107 days to 130 days - Up 21.5% in market time.

Area 885 - Lynden Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 51 in '07 to 29 in '08 - Down 43.1%

YTD New Listings - 362 in '07 to 286 in '08 - Down 21%

Total Active Listings - 189 in '07 to 152 in '08 - Down 19.6% in total listings

YTD Median Prices - $359,900 in ‘07 to $350,000 in ‘08 - Down 2.8%

YTD Ave. Prices - $405,412 in ‘07 to $415,994 - Up 2.6%

Market time went from 85 days to 114 days - Up 34.1% in market time.

Area 890 - Everson/Nooksack/Sumas Area Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 18 in '07 to 14 in '08 - Down 22.2 %

YTD New Listings - 169 in '07 to 167 in '08 - Down1.2%

Total Active Listings - 100 in '07 to 93 in '08 - Down 7%

YTD Median Prices - $319,000 in '07 to $271,329 - Down 14.9%

YTD Ave Prices went from $373,016 to $349,567 - Down 6.3%

Market time went from 100 days to 95 days - Up 4.4% in market time.

Area 895- Acme/Deming/Maple Falls/Glacier Area Active Listings

New Listings for the month of Aug - 26 in '07 to 43 in '08 - Up 65.4%

YTD New Listings - 257 in '07 and 253 in '08 - Down 1.6%

Total Active Listings - 142 in '07 to 148 in '08 - Up 4.2%

YTD Median Prices - $209,900 in ‘07 to $219,500 in ‘08 - Up 4.6%

YTD Ave Prices - $245,528 in '07 to $304,439 - Up 24%

Market time from 107 days to 118 days - Up 13.6% in market time.

OK, so those are the numbers for listed properties - what seller's are asking for. Lets take a look at what they are getting - the "sold" numbers.

Countywide Sold Homes

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 319 homes in '07 to 208 homes in '08 - Down 35%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 1,911 in '07 to 1,440 in '08 - Down 24.6%

Month of Aug Ave. Sold Prices - $340,853 in '07 to $345,265 in '08 - Up 1.3%

YTD Ave. Sold Prices - $337,155 in '07 to $325,499 in '08 - Down 3.5%

Month of Aug Med. Sold Prices - $294,000 in '07 to $280,500 in '08 - Down 4.6%

YTD Med. Sold Prices - $291,500 in '07 to $280,000 in '08 - Down 3.9%

Market time with from 98 days in '07 to 105 days in '08 - Up 7.1%

Area Specific Sold Data:

Area 850 - Sudden Valley Sold Homes

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 24 homes in '07 to 12 homes in '08 - Down 50%

YTD Number of Homes sold - 149 in '07 to 90 homes in '08 - Down 39.6%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $277,809 in '07 to $285,817 in '08 - Up 2.9%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $299,359 in '07 to $273,907 in '08 - Down 8.5%

Month of Aug Med. Sold Prices - $252,976 in '07 to $270,800 in '08 - Up 7%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $272,000 in '07 to $261,000 in ‘08 - Down 4%

Market times are down from 108 days to 106 days - Down 1.9% in market time.

Area 860 - Bellingham Sold Homes

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 151 in '07 to 96 homes in '08 - Down 36.4%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 888 in '07 to 663 homes in '08 - Down 25.3%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $374,792 in '07 to $401,592 in '08 - Up 7.2%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $374,764 in '07 to $370,922 in '08 - Down 1 %

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $324,000 in '07 to $309,500 in '08 - Down 4.5%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $315,000 in '07 to $309,000 in'08 - Down 1.9%

Market time - 92 days in '07 to 99 days in '08 - Up 7.6%

Area 865 - Meridian Sold Homes

Again very little data to analyze and you can easily see the numbers on the report. I'll do a year end summary.

Area 870 - Ferndale Sold Homes

Number of Homes Sold in Aug - 52 in '07 to 29 homes in '08 - Down 44.2%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 260 in '07 to 193 homes in '08 - Down 25.8%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $318,243 in '07 to $353,962 in '08 - Up 11.2%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $332,224 in ‘07 to $308,058 in ‘08 - Down 7.3%

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $297,000 in '07 to $319,000 in '08 - Up 7.4%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $309,950 in '07 to $287,000 in ‘08 - Down 7.4%

Market times increased from 93 days to 109 days - Up 17.2%

Area 880 - Blaine/Birch Bay Sold Homes

Number of Homes Sold in Aug - 30 in '07 to 32 homes in '08 - Up 6.7%

YTD Number of Sold Homes - 241 in '07 to 191 homes in '08 - Down 20.7%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $376,526 in '07 to $296,403 in '08 - Down 21.3%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $335,595 in ‘07 to $277,525 in ‘08 - Down 17.3%

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $282,000 in '07 to $254,500 in '08 - Down 9.8%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $261,300 in '07 to $250,000 in ‘08 - Down 4.3%

Market time - 121 days in '07 to 110 days in '08 - Down 9.1%

Area 885 - Lynden Sold Homes

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 25 in '07 to 11 homes in '08 - Down 56%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 160 in '07 to 131 homes in '08 - Down 18.1%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $356,312 in '07 to $284,536 in '08 - Down 20.1%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $321,676 in '07 to $322,564 in '08 - Up 0.3%

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $331,150 in '07 to $255,000 in '08 - Down 23%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $290,400 in '07 to $282,000 in'08 - Down 2.9%

Market time - 90 days in '07 to 127 days in '08 - Up 41.1%

Area 890 - Everson/Nooksack/Sumas

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 10 in '07 to 6 homes in '08 - Down 40%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 61 in '07 to 69 homes in '08 - Up 13.1%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $326,985 in '07 to $244,108 in '08 - Down 25.3%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $297,268 in '07 to $281,252 in '08 - Down 5.4 %

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $267,925 in '07 to $227,500 in '08 - Down 15.1%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $264,900 in '07 to $239,900 in'08 - Down 9.4%

Market time - 87 days in '07 to 101 days in '08 - Up 16.1%

Area 895 - Acme/Deming/Maple Falls/Glacier

Number of Sold Homes in Aug - 21 in '07 to 14 homes in '08 - Down 33.3%

YTD Number of Homes Sold - 122 in '07 to 85 homes in '08 - Down 30.3%

Month of Aug Ave Sold Prices - $162,147 in '07 to $171,023 in '08 - Up 5.5%

YTD Ave Sold Prices - $165,282 in '07 to $190,122 in '08 - Up 15%

Month of Aug Med Sold Prices - $123,600 in '07 to $158,400 in '08 - Up 28.2%

YTD Median Sold Prices - $123,800 in '07 to $170,000 in'08 - Up 37.3%

Market time - 114 days in '07 to 97 days in '08 - Down 14.9%

As you can see there's a considerable difference between what's being listed and what's selling. For any of the areas compare the Average and Median Prices of the Active Listings to the Average and Median Prices of the Sold listings. Countywide the Ave List price is $444,069 but the Ave Sold price is $325,499 so that's over $100K difference between what's actually selling and what homes are being listed at. And the Countywide Med list price is $347,700 compared to the Countywide Median Sales price of $280,000.

Let me know if you have any questions. I'm happy to help anyone you know that is thinking of buying or selling in Whatcom or Skagit Counties.

Bellingham Real Estate

Birch Bay Real Estate

Dan Pittsenbarger

It's to a buyer's advantage to buy up in a "down" market if you are still thinking about it. For example: someone lives in a home that was worth $200K last year and wants to get into a $300K home. But because the market has gone down they are thinking they want to wait so they can get a better price for the home they are selling so they will have more money to put down on the new place (which if it's fully mortgaged they still may "need" to do). However, if it's not fully mortaged the down market will work in their favor. For the purposes of an example say the market has gone down 10%. The original gap between their current home and the home they would like to move up to was $100K - they have a $200K home but want a $300K home. Since prices have gone down 10% they can only get $180K for their current home. Which of course doesn't seem all that great of news. However, the market doesn't just pick on any one particular property so the $300K home has also gone down 10% and is now worth $270K. The new price gap between the homes (the one they are selling and the one they want) is now only $90K instead of $100K so the buyer actually saves $10K by upsizing in a down market. And of course the gap gets bigger when prices are appreciating. In general, there are significant financial advantages to buy up in down market and to downsize in an appreciating market. Especially since there more short sale and repo opportunities at this time.

Bellngham Real Estate

Birch Bay Real Estate

Here in Bellingham prices are holding their own. Despite what's happening in other parts of the country, the media - local and national, the number of price reduced properties and some of the talk both within the industry and on the street - Bellingham's home prices are still appreciating according the actual numbers. And, every once in awhile we actually get some correct press. This article referring to and quoting a study done by the Office of Federal Oversight Enterprises (I'm personally not familiar with this office but it has a very official sounding name) was ran in our local paper a week or so ago. Here's the link for those that are interested.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/business/story/334457.html

I was happy that our local paper chose to run the article which indicated that the 4th quarter year or year appreciation to be 4.6% for Bellingham and a very exciting 83.3% five year appreciation. These numbers are very similar to the stats I getting from our local MLS. And I believe to be an accurate assessment of our local market.

Bellingham real estate