Dean Moss - Dean's Team Chicago Real Estate Team

Good Morning!

Here's the latest Stat Summary on the Chicago Real Estate Market, based on data pulled yesterday evening, October 5, 2008 -

The $700 Billion Rescue Bill is Law! Will it impact the Economy? Mortgage Rates? The Housing Market in general?

Likely . . . not right away!

Stability continues with Active Listings, and same stability for Pending Sales for single family homes, and small multi-family properties in the North and Northwest Side of Chicago Neighborhoods. Units Closedincreased and Expired Listings fell last week - countering last week's moves, but, again, total quantities small here.

Pending Sales dropped this past week - perhaps the uncertainty created by Turmoil in the Credit Markets was a factor. Sold and Closed Properties up - typical for the end of the month; many went under contract 30-45 days ago.

Chicago Inventory of Homes for Sale remains bloated, as Active Listing Levels have shown little change over the past several months in the North and Northwest Side of Chicago Communities we serve frequently. Expired Listings fell last week - uncharacteristic for the end of the month.

Average Sales Price and Average Market Time stable this week, but Sales Volume again increased with the number of transactions that closed during the last week of September.

Absorption Rate, or theoretical time to clear existing listing inventory, fell a bit, to 14.45 months - it's still a strong Buyer's Market here. The Percentage of Sale Within Six Month (180 Days) fell very slightly this week, reversing a several-week improving trend.

Here are archived annual Chicago Neighborhood Statistics, including Units Sold and Price Trends Data, for 1992 through 2007, courtesy of The Chicago Association of Realtors.

Communities and clients we serve, reside, or plan to reside, in the Chicago Neighborhoods of The Chicago Loop, The Gold Coast, River North, Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Uptown, Edgewater, North Center, Lincoln Square, Albany Park, Ravenswood, Wicker Park, and Bucktown.

Also, these Great Chicago Neighborhoods: Logan Square, Rogers Park , West Ridge, Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Norwood Park, Sauganash, Edgebrook,and Edison Park. Plus All Chicago Suburbs.

SINGLE FAMILY, CONDOS, AND SMALL MULTI-UNIT PROPERTIES - NORTH SIDE OF CHICAGO, NORTH OF ADDISON STREET, WEST OF ASHLAND AVENUE

ACTV LISTINGS JUST SOLD CLOSED EXPIRED

w/e October 6th 5,130 43 96 43

w/e September 29th 5,146 51 75 54

% CHANGE -0.3% -15.7% +28.0% -20.4%

CLOSED PROPERTIES DATA

AVG SALE PRICE AVG DAYS ON MKT TOTAL VOLUME

w/e October 6th $351,048 162 DAYS $33,700,608

w/e September 29th $346,559 156 DAYS $25,991,925

% CHANGE +1.3% +3.8% +29.7%

THEORETICAL TIME TO CLEAR EXISTING INVENTORY (ABSORPTION RATE) -

w/e October 6th - LAST 12 MOS - 16.16 LAST 6 MOS - 14.52 LAST 3 MOS - 14.45

w/e September 29th - LAST 12 MOS - 16.48 LAST 6 MOS - 14.50 LAST 3 MOS - 14.76

PERCENT OF HOMES SELLING IN 180 DAYS -

w/e October 6th - 36.13% (UNSOLD - 63.87%)

w/e September 29th - 36.85% (UNSOLD - 64.15%)

SOURCE: MIDWEST REAL ESTATE DATA LLC, AREA MARKET SURVEY DATA

Review our Chicago IL Real Estate Stats Pack Archive via our Team Blog Center - BlogChicagoHomes.com.

Call our Team anytime for current trends in any Chicago Neighborhood or Chicago Suburb!

DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO

Hi from rainy Chicago! (Well, at least our Chicago Bears won this weekend!)

The Bailout Passed! Much has been said about the possible effects, and concerns, of such a move by the Bush Administration and Congress. Initial reaction runs from outrage, to relief, to mass confusion.

But how will U.S. Mortgage Rates be impacted in the near term?

Does anybody know for certain? Good - come to Chicago. I'll buy you lunch! Hell, I'll even pay for the plane ticket and a night's stay at the swanky Drake Hotel off Michigan Avenue.

Thought so - no takers (at least those who know FOR CERTAIN!)

Rich Bira, President of First Capital Mortgage in Chicago, and one of the Dean's Team Chicago Preferred Lending Partners, points to the relationship between investor interest in stocks, versus bonds, as a clue that mortgage interest rates are likely to rise within the coming weeks and months. "I guess I'm saying that they're going to go up, on the sole premise that in the next few weeks to a month, the stock market will hit bottom and the stock market will get its footing."

Increased investor participation in the stock marketcould draw money out of more conservative investments in bonds. Although not always the case, in recent months, the relationship between bond prices and mortgage interest rates in inverse - the lower bond yields, the higher the mortgage rates, and vice-versa.

But, can anyone - expert or not - predict with any certainty whether the stock market will soon find a bottom? Further, how will the U.S. Treasury Department's purchase of distressed-quality mortgage assets proceed? If it fails to go smoothly, the stock market might continue to tumble in response, keeping bond investments high by comparison.

Further, how will Fed Funds Rate change short term. Will the threat of inflation keep that rate unchanged from current levels, or will the Fed lower that benchmark rate in an attempt to spur the housing market? And, if they do - will it have the desired effect?

Will U.S. Mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which has already rolled back some previously-adopted fees on certain mortgages, introduce new policies geared at making more mortgage money available for buyers with mid FICO Credit Scores, or will the far more stringent loan approval standards in place this year continue, or get tougher?

In any event, a poll conducted by Bankrate.com released last week suggests U.S. Homebuyers may be seeing falling rates within the next month to month-and-a-half or so. Of panelists it polled, 2/3 predicted falling rates within the next 45 days.

Whatever happens, most agree that it won't happen immediately! If I did know for sure, perhaps I would be offered a room at The Drake, and a hefty speaking fee!

Your thoughts?

See our post today @ BlogChicagoHomes.com for more, as well as a link to Mary Umberger's column in today's Chicago Tribune Real Estate Section.

DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO

Morning, All!

Everything must go up, eventually, right? That's why I keep my faith in the Real Estate Market!

But, here in Chicago, homeowners and renters alike will probably be paying more next year to ride a CTA bus or el in the city and nearby.

Testifying last week before the Chicago City Council, CTA President Ron Huberman pointed to a combination of higher costs, and lower-than-expected tax revenue. Earlier this year, the Illinois State Legislature approved, and local officials enacted, an increase in the Sales Tax in Chicago, as well as a 40% increase in the Chicago Real Estate Transfer Tax. The goal - to stabilize local Chicago Mass Transit, and head off severe service cuts or fare increases.

At the eleventh hour, in exchange for his support of the sales tax portion of the bill, IL Governor Rod Blagojevich demanded, and got, a provision allowing those over the age of 65, holding a special ID Card, to ride for free on public transit across the state.

This past August, 92,000 senior citizens took advantages of free rides on CTA buses and trains. This compared to 63,000 average monthly riders before the free ride program, when those over 65 enjoyed half-price fares.

Said President Huberman, "Ultra-low diesel, which is what we use on our buses, has increased 80 percent. Next year, we will be spending $50 million more for the same quantity of fuel than we spent the prior year. Electrical costs are coming in over 25 percent higher than they were the prior year. That means that we will be spending $7 million more just for electricity."

"The real estate transfer tax is coming in substantially below what we had anticipated. The sales tax is coming in at nine percent below. And the free rides program is also impacting our bottom line. When you take a look at the totality of those factors, it is creating a very challenging budget year."

Huberman didn't indicate how much any possible fare increase would be, but many consider it a foregone conclusion, to be announced with the unveiling of the 2009 CTA Operating Budget this Thursday, October 9th.

Currently, riders pay a level fare across all CTA Buses and Trains - $2.00 for those paying cash, $1.75 for those using pre-paid Chicago and Chicago Plus Fare Cards. Transfers between lines, within two hours of the last ride - currently, 30 cents.

The last time the CTA increased fares - 2006, with those paying cash, as opposed to the debit-style CTA Chicago or Chicago Plus Card, swallowing a higher portion of the jump.

See our post from last Thursday via BlogChicagoHomes.com, with a link to Fran Spielman's story in last Thursday's Chicago Sun-Times.

DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO

Hey, hey - it was a mere 24 hours ago, roughly, that the U.S. Congress passed, and President Bush signed into law, a massive, $700 Billion plan to stabilize the financial markets, and shore up lenders. These institutions financial positions were considerably weakened by bad lending decisions they made during the height of the housing boom - just a couple of short years ago!

Hip, Hip . . . now, wait one minute!

Do you actually think, come Monday morning, the credit market will dramatically turnaround, Wall Street will begin a weeks-long rally, mortgage money will be easier to come by, and the Twin Peaks of High Foreclosures and High Inventory for Sale will begin to melt in the afternoon sun?

If so . . . what are you smoking?

The original Bailout Bill was rejected by the U.S. House last Monday. So, it was sweetened! In addition to now containing a few earmarked programs, here and there, to appeal to target U.S. Representatives, the approved bill added provisions for stronger oversight, limited executive pay for impacted companies, and an increased FDIC Insurance Limit. These might have helped the bill get approved.

But many questions remain. And these questions may take a long time to answer.

As we know, the bill's main focus is to allow the U.S. Government to purchase up to $700 Billion in non-performing mortgage assets held by banks and other lending institutions who made risky loans during the housing boom a couple of years ago.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who has 45 days to derive a specific plans to purchase these bad mortgages, hopes that getting all this bad debt of the balance sheets of lenders will give them confidence to increase the amount of money they will lend to businesses and consumers alike.

The overall goal here - to unfreeze pent-up bank money to create new loans. In recent weeks, banks have been fearful of issuing loans due to uncertainty in the credit markets. Even bank-to-bank lending, generally considered the least risky for lenders, has been effectively frozen.

Businesses have had difficulty even qualifying for short-term loans to pay for their daily operations. Loans for longer-term capital projects have been as tough to come by.

According to industry experts, including Joe Belew, President of the Consumer Bankers Association, don't expect lending to ramp up overnight, however. It may take weeks - or longer - for confidence to return. "Hopefully, this will lend a calming effect to the markets. We need to take a deep breath, relax and start doing business again."

How much will the U.S. Treasury Department pay for distressed mortgage assets? The answer to that question may take a long time to deliberate, and even longer to negotiate. Offering too much for the assets will over-tap the bailout fund, and might mean a smaller return when the government eventually sells the assets to investors, hopefully, at a profit, when credit markets eventually stabilize.

If they offer too little, lenders holding the weak mortgages may balk, and extend negotiations further. They may have to find additional ways to raise capital to improve their financial condition, and investment capital has been tough to come by in today's weakened economy.

Wall Streetdidn't jump for joy as the plan was approved. Last Friday, as the plan was being debated in the U.S. House, the Dow Industrial Average saw triple-digit gains. After approval, the Dow Index dropped157 points, to close the day down 1.5% at the closing bell.

But the biggest source of Credit Market distress resides in the troubled Housing Market. Here in Chicago, and in many other areas of the U.S., foreclosures are at near-historic levels, and homes-for-sale inventory continues high - exceeding 14 months in many of the Chicago Neighborhoods and Suburban Communities we serve. Median prices have dropped nearly 10% here in the past year, and are likely to continue to fall.

At the same time, mortgage loan requirements have become much more stringent, allowing few but the most credit-qualified buyers, with high down payments, to buy a new home, or refinance their current one.

Thus, the current Real Estate Buyer's Market has an odorous lining - many families who would love to buy a home now cannot obtain the financing to close the sale, and other buyers are waiting on the sidelines for home prices to drop even further before they act.

Until the Housing Market becomes more stable, according to experts, banks will be reluctant to lend, and the economy in general will not improve.

"This bill doesn't contain any element of stability for the housing market or the real economy," said Christian Menegatti, Lead Analyst for RGE Monitor, an economic research firm. "The problems are going to come back and the lack of confidence will come back."

Further, as long as businesses, and consumers, have doubts about quick economic recovery, they will be less likely to increase spending. One key indicator - Friday's Jobs Report, showing 159,000 job losses last month - does little to improve employee confidence. Those concerned about losing their jobs are not about to invest in a new home.

Do you agree? Apparently, many of the Senators and Congressmen's constituents did as well - they called and emailed their elected representatives in droves, protesting the bill's passage.

It seems something had to be done, many feel. Just don't expect a fast turnaround!

See our post today at BlogChicagoHomes.com for more info, as well as a link to Senior Writer Tami Luhby's story at CNNMoney.com.

DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO

Good Afternoon, Folks!

Here is our Team Member Jennifer Arcand Chicago Neighborhood News Update, for the Chicago Neighborhoods of The Loop, Lincoln Square, Rogers Park, and Edgebrook, and the Chicago Suburb of Naperville IL.

LINCOLN SQUARE

On Sunday, beginning at 12:45 p.m., over 25 Lincoln Square restaurants will offer food, wines for sampling, and a raffle along with live and silent auctions. This ninth annual indoor-outdoor event will be hosted by St. Matthias Parish, 4910 N. Claremont Avenue in the school hall and beneath a tent outdoors. Cost is $35-$40 per person; $60-$70 per couple. Click here for more information.

LOOP

Come on out and take advantage of a relaxed shopping environment. New kitchen and bath fixtures will be unveiled for your home improvement needs (including the lighting). Speakers such as Monica Pederson of HGTV's "Designed to Sell" will be at Saturday's free Luxe Home Open House at The Merchandise Mart. Click here to learn more.

ROGERS PARK

Is the art on your wall forever slipping and tilting this way and that no matter how many times you fix it? Try and stick about an inch-strip of electrical tape on the bottom corners of the framed art, says Jason Loper, who used the trick in his Rogers Park condo. It provides just enough traction to keep the art (or small mirror or framed photo) in place. Click here for more ideas.

EDGEBROOK

At the 18-hole Edgebrook Golf Course, sinking the first hole under par might not be too much of a challenge for a seasoned golf pro. Try doing it with a 200-yard water hazard in the middle of you and the green. After the rains last week, if your ball came to a rest an easy putt away from the hole, you would have needed an amphibious golf cart to get from the tee to the mound to make that putt. With most of the course under water, any attempt at playing a round would have required a generous supply of Mulligans (do-overs) and perhaps an electronic fish finder to locate the balls that didn't make it. Click here for the entire article.

NAPERVILLE

A showcase of traditional and modern Chinese performing arts and culture will take place Saturday in Naperville. The Dong Fang Chinese Performing Arts Association will be presenting its annual Golden Fall Moon Festival performance at 7:30pm Saturday in Pfeiffer Hall at North Central College, 310 E. Benton Ave. The performance features Chinese folk songs, dance, comedy, Chinese opera and other vocal and instrumental music and recreates an authentic Chinese community variety show as is often seen in communities around China. Click here to learn more.

Here is an archive of Jennifer's Blog Posts of Neighborhood News in and around Chicago, via BlogChicagoHomes.com.

Enjoy the weekend!

JENNIFER ARCAND & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO