Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit

Wow, what a month this has been for not only Lake Norman real estate but our national real estate market!

Hot of the press, of course, is the big news that President Obama signed into law yesterday the newly revised and extended Homebuyer Tax Credit! Not only does this legislation extend the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit to April 30, 2010, it also adds an exciting new provision. As of yesterday and through April 30, 2010, homeowners who have lived in their primary residence for 5 consecutive years out of the previous 8 years will be eligible for a tax credit of up to $6500 if they sell this home and have a new written purchase contract by April 30, 2010 and closing no later than July 1, 2010. This is expected to be a big boost to home sales throughout the country.

Other good news came from the Federal Reserve this week. They will keep the target rate for federal funds at zero to .25% and "continues to expect that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period".

At the same time the National Association of Realtors report a record 8 straight months of pending home sales increases.

However, on the negative news side, there has been much discussion about the "shadow" inventory expected to come on the market next spring and a second round of foreclosures brought on by Option ARMS and Alt-A loans that are resetting over the next 18 months. Some are saying that this second wave of foreclosures, which for the most part are not subprime, will hit the mid-range and luxury home markets because these are loans that the middle class Americans got during the 2004-2007 time-frame. And, getting new home loans, especially jumbo, are still extremely challenging and a tedious process at best.

It is truly impossible to find any consensus on the future of the US housing market.

However, by taking a look at our local numbers we can have a better understanding the current Lake Norman real estate market and home sales trends and glean potential mini-trends from these. Below are our October real estate numbers for Lake Norman:

Lake Norman's October 2009 Housing Statistics

• Active Listings continue to decline (4.0%). As I have written many times, this is an important part of our Lake Norman housing recovery. Again, note the average price of our active listings when compared to the average price of our solds this past month. Our high-end market is still suffering however I am seeing some increased activity in part due to foreclosures and short sales.

• Contingent Sales are down slightly compared to the 17 in September. These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer's home selling

• Conditional Sales are up slightly compared to 58 in September. This confirms that recent activity remains at about the same level as last month

• Pending sales dropped slightly compared to 87 in September. This would further confirm that we might expect November closed sales to be about equal to October and September which would actually be a significant improvement over November 2008.

• The number of closed sales was identical to last month and a whopping 22% higher than October 2008! I am now feeling pretty confident that our fourth quarter 2009 sales will be significantly stronger than last years record lows. While this is relatively good news, it is hard to predict past November at this point.

5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.

Summary

Overall it is my opinion that sales will definitely be stronger in our fourth quarter compared to last year. Granted, we are up against some very weak sales but I like the trend! Some of my buyers have jumped off the fence to take advantage of some incredible deals in all price ranges.

Based upon our October sales we currently have 17.7 months of active listings which is 3 times the 6-month levels of a balanced housing market however we are seeing this number improve slightly each month. Yes, Lake Norman is clearly in a buyers' market and probably will be for some time to come but we are heading in the right direction.

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Every year at this time the Lake Norman area comes alive with pumpkin patches, Halloween festivities for all ages and homes decorated to welcome all of our young trick -or -treaters.

If you are in search of a pumpkin patch or Halloween festivities in and around our Mooresville and Lake Norman area, here are a few ideas:

• Carrigan Farms: Open 9-5 weekdays, 9-4 Saturday and 12-4 Sundays through Halloween. Pick a pumpkin, visit the animals and have some fresh apple cider. There are even hayrides every 15 minutes and special old-fashioned night time hay rides too! 1261 Oak Ridge Farm Highway/N.C.150, Mooresville.

• Patterson Farm: Pumpkin patch is open with tours through Nov. 6th and on weekends don't miss Paw Paw Carl's Palyground where you can enjoy hayrides, a corn pit, Tomato Slingshot, Duck Races and more! See their website for more details.

• Sixth Annual Boy Scout Pumpkin Patch: Pumpkins and gourds of all shapes and sizes. 17115 Kenton Drive, Cornelius

• The Great Pumpkin Patch for Missions: Pumpkins, decorative corn, gourds and more! Davidson United Methodist Church: 233 S. Main Street. Davidson.

Or, just look to any of our many local produce stands like Josh's Produce Market on Williamson Road who are brimming over with pumpkins and decorations for your Lake Norman home!

Of course, it would not be Halloween without some fun, and even spooky events for all ages.

• The Amazing Maize Maze at Rural Hill In Huntersville is going green this year! Open now through November1st, they have daily hours plus they are open for "Flashlight Mazes" on October 23rd and 31st! My daughter and I went several years ago and had a great time but do wear comfortable shoes and allow enough time and energy to discover all of the clues to make it through the maze successfully! If you need help, the have volunteers perched high on watch towers there to give you some hints.

• t1 tapas in Birkdale Village is hosting The Spooktacular Halloween Bash to benefit Loaves & Fish on Friday, October 23rd, Tickets are $35 in advance or $45 at the door. Call 704.895.4373 for detail. They are also having a "Trick or Treat Weekend Oct 30 - 31st. Come and enjoy all the amazing new multi-media and enjoy Halloween cuisine and "wicked drink specials".

• Downtown Mooresville Annual Halloween Treat for Families: 3-5pm Oct. 30. Downtown will be crawling with little ghosts and goblins as businesses hand out candy and treats. 3 - 5pmPumpkin Carving Contest, photographs of children in costumes and trick or treating for kids.

• Downtown Davidson's Halloween March on Main Steet in Davidson 5-7pm. Free. Costumed characters of all ages are invited to march!

• Howl-O-Ween Bash: Join Pet PALS for their first ever Howl-O-Ween bash at the new hit nightclub, Halo at the NC Music Factory.
  Enjoy appetizers, drink specials and dancing all to support the Humane Society of Charlotte. While costumes aren't required, they are encourged. We hope you can come out for a howling good time! Halo 820 Hamilton St Suite A2 Charlotte, NC 28206 704-246-1752 .

Loooking for something REALLY SPOOKY? So SPOOKY that they do not recommend it for children 12 and under? Check out Forbidden Farms!:

Forbidden Farms

"Forbidden Farms is celebrating the 2009 season with a nightmarish collection of 5 enhanced and electrifying scare zones.

Will you escape the hordes of ghouls, monsters, maniacs and the tormented????

Can you survive the total chaos and terror of spine-tingling, blood-curdling moments in all 5 scare zones?????

Come gather around the bonfires, at the well-known Carrigan Farms Rock Quarry, before or after you enter the haunted trail!

Visit us on Facebook, become a Fan and receive special discounts and coupons."

Have a GREAT Lake Norman Halloween!!!

If you have been following the national real estate business news this past month, these are just some of the comments/headlines you might have read:

"Credit shortage has strangled recovery; households are in bunkers under collapsed net worth, and not coming out until home values are safe." (Lou Barnes, Inman News)

"The jumbo loan mod ‘pipe dream'" (Bernice Ross Inman News)

‘Mortgage Delinquencies - The Coming Storm....While subprime mortgages sparked the first round of housing problems two years ago, now troubles are lurking further up the food chain...White-collar job losses have accelerated while more adjustable-rate loans to prime borrowers are resetting to higher payments..." (Chief US Economist at MFR Inc. Joshua Shapiro)

"Credit Woes to Threaten Housing Recovery?" (Consumer New and Advice and RISMEDIA)

"Across the country, homebuilders and developers are reporting a deterioration in credit availability and intensifying pressure on borrowers with outstanding loans." (National Association of Home Builders Chairman Joe Robson)

At the same time the National Association of Realtors report a record 7 straight months of pending home sales increases. It is truly impossible to find any consensus on the future of the US housing market.

However, by taking a look at our local numbers we can have a better understanding the current Lake Norman real estate market and home sales trends and glean potential mini-trends from these.

Lake Norman's September Housing Statistics

• Active Listings continue to decline (3.7%), this is a important part of our Lake Norman housing recovery. Again, note the average price of our active listings when compared to the average price of our solds this past month. Our high-end market is still suffering in part due to the difficulty getting jumbo loans.

• Contingent Sales are up slightly compared to the 14 in August. These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer's home selling

• Conditional Sales are also up slightly compared to 54 in August. This confirms that recent activity remains at about the same level as last month

• Pending sales dropped slightly compared to 91 in August. This would further confirm that we might expect October closed sales to be about equal to September.

• The number of closed sales jumped 25% compared to August but dropped about 5% when compared to September 2008. If we stay equal to 2008 winter sales we will experience a significant slow down. The fact that October looks about equal to this past month indicates we might actually have stronger 4th quarter sales than 2008. While this is relatively good news, it is hard to predict past October at this point.

5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.

Summary

Overall it is my opinion that sales may be a bit stronger in our fourth quarter compared to last year. Granted, we are up against some very weak sales but it does appear we may experience some improvement.

One of the most important trends to watch right now are the prices ranges of Lake Norman homes that are selling. Of the 78 homes that sold last month, only 20 were above $500,000. First-time buyers are taking advantage of the $8,000 rebate and most other Lake Norman home buyers are gobbling up the foreclosures and other bargains that are now available. Some foreclosures are priced as much as 50% of the price they sold in 2005 or their original listing price.

Based upon our September sales we currently have 18.5 months of active listings which is 3 times the 6-month levels of a balanced housing market. We are still clearly in a buyers' market. It is so hard to predict what will happen if the $8,000 credit is not extended and the "shadow inventory" of potential foreclosures come to fruition.

In the next week or so I will do my 3rd quarter sales analysis by price range to provide greater insight into our Lake Norman real estate market.

Related Articles

Lake Norman Real Estate's August 2009 Home Sales

Lake Norman Real Estate: Why is it so hard to buy a home right now?

October is truly one of my favorite months on Lake Norman. The skies are crisp and clear, the temperatures mild (today's high is 75) and the Lake Norman shoreline becomes ablaze with color. Our trees are just beginning to change but over the next four weeks the Dogwoods will turn a deep red, then the Maples and other trees follow, each with their own spectacular series of colors.

To make this your desktop calendar, go to: Lake Norman Real Estate, click on the round button at the top of this site's home page entitled: "Lake Norman Calendar"and up will come an image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for September 2009. All you have to do is right click and select "set as background". Enjoy!

While I have great fun taking pictures of Lake Norman, I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman!. If you'd like to submit a photo for a future calendar, please send it to...

Imagine what it would be like to have to breath through a straw. That is how one of my clients' daughters, who has severe asthma, describes how she feels when she is exposed to even the slightest bit of toxins in the air...including the ingredients in popular air fresheners and scented candles. While I was recently showing her family some Lake Norman waterfront homes, she had two serious asthma attacks triggered by just that. Each time it took her over a day to recover from just seconds of exposure to an air freshener or lingering cigarette smoke.

I must admit, despite my avid focus on "green" or "high performance" housing in Lake Norman I don't think I totally grasped the seriousness of indoor air quality until I met this family. It is one thing to learn about the latest low or no VOC (Volatile Organic compounds) paint products and the amount of organic gases like Formaldehyde that are emitted from such solid and liquids as hardwood floors, cabinets, sealers, paints, pressed wood products...the list goes on and on. It is quite another to watch this young woman gasping for air.

The good news is that indoor air quality is an important part of the "green" housing movement nationally and right here in Lake Norman. So much so, that the US Environmental Protection Agency recently created Indoor airPLUS which is designed to work in partnership with their more well known ENERGY STAR program. Just as ENERGY STAR is an accreditation program for energy efficiency, Indoor airPLUS is a program designed to encourage home builders to "employ a variety of construction practices and technologies in their new homes to help address" such air quality issues as:

• Moisture Control
• Radon Control
• Pest Management
• HVAC
• Ventilation and Filtration
• Combustion Venting
• Building Materials

At the Indoor airPLUS's first outreach webinar they explained that 19% of US households have a member with Asthma, 40% of households have a member with a respiratory problem and that they have found that typical indoor air chemical pollution levels may be 2-5 times higher than what is considered "safe" levels.

Including these pollutants and sources of indoor air pollution:

• Asbestos
• Biological Pollutants
• Carbon Monoxide
• Formaldehyde/Pressed Wood Products
• Household Cleaning and Maintenance, Personal Care, or Hobbies
• Lead
• Nitrogen Dioxide
• Pesticides
• Radon
• Respirable Particles
• Secondhand Smoke/Environmental Tobacco Smoke
• Stoves, Heaters, Fireplaces, and Chimneys

So, how does a home in our Lake Norman area earn the Indoor AirPlus label? "A home must first be designed to earn the ENERGY STAR label, the government-backed symbol for energy efficiency. By adding up to 30 additional home design and construction features, an Indoor airPLUS qualified home helps protects residents..." from indoor air pollution. During the Lake Norman home-building process testers or "HERS" raters will visit the build site and verify the required construction specifications. The Indoor airPLUS label will be placed on the electrical panel along with the ENERGY STAR label when it has passed the certification process.

Knowledgeable Lake Norman "green" home builders view ENERGY STAR ratings as the lowest/less stringent when compared to such "green" rating systems as North Carolina's Healthy Built Homes, the National Association of Home Builders Green Home Building Guidelines and the very toughest LEED certified homes. However, while ENERGY STAR and Indoor airPLUS may not be as comprehensive as these, I am excited to be an early Lake Norman supporter or "ally" of the new Indoor airPLUS program in hopes that it will lead to an increased focus on indoor air quality throughout the building industry and by consumers both here in the Lake Norman area and throughout the country.

For more information "The Inside Story: A Guide to Indoor Air Quality".

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