Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit

In today's real estate market, both here in the Lake Norman area as well as the entire country, economic data changes daily. This is especially true of the number of home foreclosures. And it is particularly difficult to stay on top of our local numbers as they are not as readily available.

That is why I got pretty excited when I learned about this interactive map on the National Public Radio's website: Interactive Map: The Economy Where You Live. If you click on the link a map of the United States will appear with the option to search three different numbers BY COUNTY:

1. Foreclosure Rates
2. Unemployment Rates
3. Median Household Income

These numbers are updated regularly so you can keep track of trends by county not only where you might be buying but where you are currently living as well.

Today's numbers for our four Lake Norman counties:

Iredell (including Mooresville, Troutman,Statesville):

• Foreclosures: 1 in 1662 (one out of every 1662 homes are currently in foreclosure)
• Unemployment rate: 13%

Mecklenburg (including Charlotte, Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson):

• Foreclosures: 1 in 213
• Unemployment rate: 11.7%

Catawba (including Sherrills Ford, Terrell, Hickory):

• Foreclosures: 1 in 2479
• Unemployment rate: 14.9%

Lincoln (Including Denver, Lincolnton):

• Foreclosures: 1 in 1401
• Unemployment rate: 14.5%

While I have included which Lake Norman cities fall in each county, it is important to know that there are many other cities in these counties, especially Mecklenburg which includes the greater Charlotte metropolitan area. It is clear that the more densely populated areas in Mecklenburg County are experiencing a much greater number of foreclosures than the other counties surrounding Lake Norman.

In a report released by RealtyTrac today, the foreclosure related filings in August were ranked by state, the worst being:

1. Nevada: 1 in 62
2. Florida: 1 in 140
3. California: 1 in 144
4. Arizona: 1 in 150
5. Michigan: 1 in 234

According to this report, one in every 357 U.S. homes was subjected to a foreclosure-related filing in August.

Overall, the Lake Norman area is doing considerably better than the country but the numbers are not currently trending in a positive direction.

I plan on checking these maps on a regular basis to watch for changes!

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If you have been following the national real estate news about pending sales being on an upward trend as well as closed home sales in some states, you might have an overall sense that we have hit bottom and are slowly but consistently improving. But, we need to keep in mind that we always have a seasonal increase in sales monthly from April through July. Locally our August numbers took a significant dip. It will be very interesting to see the national housing numbers for August when they are released.

I have been working with a lot of Lake Norman buyers and I can tell you from first hand experience that most sellers in the Lake Norman area are struggling, prices are dropping and there are some really good bargains in every price level. It truly is a painful market right now and a challenging one for both buyers and sellers due to the difficulties with appraisals and loans and the drop in prices.

Lake Norman's August housing statistics

• Active Listings continue to decline which is very good news. Note the average price of our active listings when compared to those that are under contract.

• Contingent Sales also remain about flat for the past few months. These are the homes that are sold but they are contingent upon the buyer selling their home...very weak contracts that could go on indefinitely

• Conditional Sales are actually slightly above the 48 in July.

• Pending Sales are equal to July's 90 pending sales which indicates to me that our September numbers may mirror August's.

• The number of Closed Sales dropped 18% compared to July 2008. The average sales price declined 14% and the average days on market increased 30%. In my opinion, these are critical numbers as they best tell the story of our Lake Norman housing market. My guess is that our sales peaked last month (July) for 2009 and will now level off.

5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.

***IMPORTANT CHANGE IN DATA

While preparing this report I decided to look at the details of the properties that sold in July and August. I discovered a major flaw in the MLS data program:

• The normal MLS search for properties that have sold by date actually include the properties based upon when the listing agent entered the sold data into the MLS, NOT when the property actually sold!
• I went back and discovered that there are a significant number of home sales that are entered several days or more into the next month so the monthly sales numbers are inaccurate.
• I spoke to the data person at the Charlotte MLS and he said this is the way that the entire MLS reporting is done but that if I want to know the number of ACTUAL sales in any give month I must do a custom search (which I have since done). So, be forwarned that the public numbers quoted for Charlotte but our MLS will use the flawed method. I do not know how the national numbers are calculated.

I have since gone back and corrected every month in 2009 to reflect the actual sales that closed in that month.

To give you an example of how bad those prior numbers were, in today's report our August sales would be 79 rather than 62. There are 22 sales in the August 2009 search that actually closed in July and 5 sales that are included in September when they actually closed in August for a net error of 17!

Summary

Clearly our Lake Norman home sales peaked last year in the month of July and I would predict that they also peaked this year in July. August sales dropped 31% versus last month. Right now, with 62 sales and 1498 active listing we have 24 months of inventory of Lake Norman homes compared to a balanced market of 6-8 months of supply. The average sales price declined 14% compared to August 2008.

Inventory is coming down as are prices so the Lake Norman housing market is moving in the right direction to hit bottom. We must get our inventory down which means getting our prices down to a point where buyers feel confident to buy.

We are still clearly in a buyers' market. I think the advantage will be with buyers through the end of the year but then we may see a shift in the mindset of both buyers and sellers as we enter spring 2010. If the momentum changes, buyers will start to buy fearing they are missing the bottom and they may be right!

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September is here and it already feels like fall on Lake Norman. The humidity of the lazy days of summer has been replaced by invigoratingly fresh air and cooler temperatures.

Some of my favorite events in Mooresville and the greater Lake Norman area occur in September; from the Denver Days Fall Festival to the Amazing Maize Maze to the just too fun Wiener Races. (Yes, I mean Dachshunds!).

However, for this month's photo I decide to peak ahead to October and the 36th annual Carolina Balloon Fest on October 23-25. Many don't know that Statesville (and Lake Norman) NC is considered one of THE places for hot air balloons and that this annual rally is one of the largest National Balloon Rally's!

To make this your desktop calendar, go to the round button at the top of Lake Norman Real Estate's home page entitled: "Lake Norman Calendar". Click on this button and up will come an image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for September 2009. All you have to do is right click and select "set as background". Enjoy!

While I have great fun taking pictures of Lake Norman, I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman!. If you'd like to submit a photo for a future calendar, please send it to...

It is moments like this that I wish I were Teresa Broadman. During a recent visit to the Daniel Stowe Botancial Gardens I saw this magnificent butterfly. I just have a point and shoot camera but at least it cooperated with me and stayed fairly still while I shot this photo as it enjoyed a blooming Lantana bush. There is nothing more spectacular than Mother Nature!

I couldn't resist sharing this photo of one of my favoirte homes on Lake Norman which I took this summer after viewing some waterfront homes for one of my buyers. It's not often that you find a log cabin ESTATE complete with its own vineyard. This property is located along the Western shoreline of Lake Norman in Sherrills Ford just off of Molly's Backbone on Azalea Road. No, I did not make up the street names!