Doc Reiss

There have been fifty-percent fewer sales this year than last in the Port Angeles market.

While one might think only the higher priced homes would sell less frequently this year; the data does not seem to hold that correlation.

Shown in declining order, sales volume of homes priced between $500,000 and $599,999 is off by 75% (12 last year, 3 to date this year) and for homes priced from $600,000 and above it's off by 70 percent (10/3). Properties priced from $300,000 - $349,999 are off by 66% (35/12) and those priced from $400,000 - $499,999 are down by 60 percent (20/8).

Surprisingly, homes listed from $200,000 - $249,999 are down 58% in number of sales compared to last year (133/56).

Homes valued from $350,000 - $399,999 are off by 33 % (21/14) and homes priced from $250,000 - $299,999 are 28% lower in volume sold (50/36). The segment showing the best numbers

this year has been the least expensive; the $199,999 or under grouping; but even that group is down by 13% (110/96).

Market inventory is up about ten perecent from this time last year with just two of the eight segments having fewer homes available. If you're looking in the under $199,999 price range, there are 69 on the market. Last year there were 53.

The supply of homes priced from $200,000 - $249,000 is almost identical with 55 on now versus 54 in 2007.

Seventy-one properties are currently at $250,000 - $299,999. Last year we had 58. Folks shopping in the $300,000 - $349,999 price range will find seven more than previously, with 38 now for sale.

Only 33 homes are being offered in the $350,000 - $399,999 range. In ‘07 there were 38.

There were 35 priced between $400,000 - $499,999 last year. The inventory right now is identical in number.

Selection of properties valued at $500,000 - $599,999 is from thirteen homes. Last year there were two dozen on the market. The highest -priced segment of $600,000+ has 34 homes to choose from in the Port Angeles market. A year ago there were 21.

The average home is taking almost a month longer to sell this year. It's taking an average of 128 days now.

Despite the lack of sales, the broader market continues to appreciate. According to the WashingtonCenter for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, the median price (half above and half below) for homes in Clallam County had risen to $250,000 by the end of the second quarter.

The average home price has fallen, but that is understandable considering the number of lower priced homes and the

repossessions, foreclosures and distressed properties that have come on the market and sold, coupled with lower sales in the upper ranges.

Our office currently has twelve distressed, foreclosed, or repossessed properties. The Trulia website lists thirteen foreclosed, eight going to auction and six by bankruptcy, for a total of twenty-seven. And while the number may be disturbing and indicative of the times, it also means that there are very strong bargains available to the discerning buyer.

If you are looking for a property as an investment, it is possible to find an opportunity below asssessed value. Recent offerings have been as much as $50,000 - $70,000 under.

Sales volumes continue to decline. You may recall that in June the volume was down by 24 percent. It's now off by 33 percent.

Last year there had been 291 homes sold by the end of August. This year we have sold 195 or 67% of last year's levels. Sales numbers are down in every price point with the higher-priced homes showing the strongest declines.

Many of our upper-level priced homes are purchased by out of area buyers and while Washington state has not suffered from the sub-prime debacle as several other areas of the country have, a downturn in the other markets does have a reflection in ours. It is not uncommon to hear buyers lament, "Our home hasn't sold yet so our plans are on hold."

Homes sales for the $500,000 - $599,999 level are off by 75% and those priced from $400,000 - $499,999 are down by 61 percent. Homes sales for those priced above $600,000 are off by 58% followed closely by homes in the $300,000 - $349,999 range; off by 59 percent. The $350,000 - $399,999 priced homes are down 55% from last year's sales level.

We have a much stronger inventory of homes priced to $199,999 with 71 currently available. Last year there were 48 at this time. And even though lower-priced homes have sold well this year, the level is down 18 percent from ‘07.

The next segment of homes, $200,000 -$249,999, is almost identical in inventory from this time a year ago with 63 currently available, versus 65 in 2007 but the sales volume has dropped 31 percent.

There are 13 fewer homes priced from $250,000 - $299,999 (74 versus 87) than we had available last year and the sales volume has dropped almost 28 percent.

So what does it all mean for someone who wants to sell? Has the market tanked? Are people losing money because home sales levels are falling? In short, no.

Real estate, despite what the infommercials would have you believe, is a long term investment. Some years the return is much better than others and if you look at only this year you are not seeing the whole picture. Look instead at what has happened to your home's value since it was purchased. While the appreciation may not be as dramatic as you had hoped for in the short term, overall home values have and will continue

to grow. Washington is a very desireable place to live and the influx of people will keep pressure on the markets and that will fuel appreciation. Planning forecasts anticipate an average of 100,000 people a year moving into the state through 2015.

Yes, this year there are fewer buyers and in a market where values are determined by activity, it is a great time to be a buyer. But even if you don't make the killing you were hoping for selling your home, odds are your investment has made a sustantial gain in value. And while it may take longer to sell, bear in mind that only the homes that are listed will be the ones that someone will buy.

While inventory is still up over 2007 levels, surprisingly, homes under $200,000 predominate the market. Last year there were 41 homes in that price point. Right now we have 72.

Homes priced in the $200,000 - $249,999 range number the same as last year at this time; 65. Inventory for those in the $250,000 - $299,999 segment is slightly under last year's with 72 versus 77 for ‘07.

If your budget is $300,000 - $349,999 you will find 29% more dwellings to choose from. Currently, we have 57. And there is a 58% increase in the number priced from $350,000 - $399,999 with 45 now on the market.

Conversely, there are 58% fewer homes selling for $400,000 - $499,999. We have only 29 available as of June 30th.

In the upper two segments of the market, there are 50% fewer homes priced from $500,000 - $599,999 and 59% more homes selling at $600,000 and up, with 11 and 32 being offered respectively.

It's still taking about 30% longer to sell a home these days. The absorption rates (how long it would take to deplete a certain segment at the current sales rate) vary from about seven-and-half months for the least expensive to almost four years, three months for homes priced in the $300,000 - $349,999 range.

Homes priced from $200,000 - $249,999 have about nine-and-a-half months of inventory available. After that, absorption rates slow dramatically.

There's a two year supply of $250,000 - $299,999 homes; a 28 month supply of homes from $350,000 - $399,999; and 29 months of those at $400,000 - $499,999.

Looking at upper-end homes selling from $500,000 - $599,999, there's a 33 month inventory. And the top level of $600,000 plus has a four year supply.

Even though inventory levels are higher than the previous year's, the average days on market is almost the same, just slightly over four months.

Sales are down just about 25% from last year.

Last year we had sold 197 by this time. This year 146 have sold. Of those, sales of the under $200,000 and $200,000 - $249,999 homes have remained at the same level with 58 and 41 having sold by this time each year. By comparison, last year ten homes in the $500,000 - $599,999 range had sold. This year, two. Only homes from $600,000+ have increased over ‘07. Last year, one; this year, four.

As of June 2nd there were 350 homes on the market, up ten percent from the same time last year Homes priced at $199,900 and below have a 45% increase in inventory from 2007 with 66 available now versus 36 last year. Homes priced from $200,000 - $249,999 are up eight percent with 61 available now over the 56 last year.

Home sales are down almost 24% from last year. It is taking an average of 31% longer to sell a home, but they are selling. In 2007, 161 homes had sold by the beginning of June. So far, 123 homes have sold year-to-date. Of those, 85 (69% of the sales) have been homes priced under $250,000. Homes priced from $250,000 - $299,999 are in third place with fourteen sales this year. Eight homes in the $350,000 - $399,999 range have sold and homes priced from $300,000 - $349,999 and $400,000 - $499,999 have each had six sales, down an average of 50% from last year.

Inventory of homes priced between $500,000 - $599,999 is down 48% from 2007 with eleven currently available; whereas homes priced at $600,000 and above are up fifteen-percent with 28 on the market.

The supply and demand of homes priced under $250,000 is fairly balanced with an average of about seven-and-a-half months of inventory between the two segments. There is about nineteen months of inventory of homes priced from $250,000 - $299,999. After that, the absorption rate shrinks dramatically.

There's a 33 month supply of homes priced from $400,000 - $599,999. Homes priced from $350,000 - $399,999 have a 41.5 month supply. Homes priced over $600,000 have a 42.4 month absorption rate. The slowest movers (comparing supply to demand) are the homes in the $300,000 - $349,999 segment where there is almost 45 months of supply.

While Washington is faring better than most states, it is estimated three to five percent of the properties for sale in the Port Angeles area fall into the "distressed property" or foreclosed classifications.

A distressed property is one that is the primary residence of the owner and that is: in default on the mortgage; at least 30 days delinquent on the loan secured by the property; where the owner believes they will default on their mortgage or loan within the next four months; or that is at risk due to non-payemnt of taxes. Special rules now apply to such sales. Contact a Realtor for more information.