Doc Reiss

Entry level homes are in greater abundance now than they have been in a long time. At the end of September there were 106 homes available for under $200,000 in the Port Angeles market. For the same time period in 2008 there were 69 and if you look back to ‘07 you'd find 53.

The only other price point with an increase in selection is the $200,000 - $249,999 grouping with 69; 25% more than last year.

The strongest decline in availability is in the $250,000 - $299,999 segment. There are just 31 on the market, a 56% decline from a year ago.

If your budget is more in line with a $300,000 - $349,999 priced home there are 29 to choose from -- a decline of 24% rom the 2008 level.

The next two segments, $350,000 - $399,999 and $400,000 - $499,999 are down an average of 35% with 21 and 23 respectively available.

Two years ago at this time there were 24 homes priced from $500,000 - $599,999. Last year there were thirteen. This year, twelve.

The top range of $600,000 and above has eighteen percent fewer -- a selection of 28 homes currently.

It's taking about one month longer for homes to move off the market now with an average time of just over five months before a listing goes under contract.

The $250,000 - $299,999 group of homes have just over six months of inventory. But even though three plus times larger, the under $200,000 will all be gone in a bit more than eight months at their current sales rate.

There is a year and a week's worth of inventory in the $200,000 - $249,999 range and about thirteen-and-a-half months worth of supply in the homes selling for $300,000 - $349,999.

The homes priced above those have a three-and-a-half year, almost four year, slightly more than six year, and a fourteen-year-seven-month supply for the three-fifty to four, four to five, five to six and six hundred thousand plus brackets.

Year to date, homes priced under $400,000 are selling for about five percent below asking price. Those above that point are going for an average of twelve to fifteen percent less.

Sales activity in the last six months has been stronger than in 2008. This year 162 sold between March and the end of September. Last year 158 changed hands.

Looking at the sales so far this year, we are still down about ten percent from last year's numbers with 208 sold by the end of September, ‘09, versus 228 in 2008. While nowhere near the levels of two years ago -- there were 341 sold in the same time span of 2007 -- our market has fared better than many and sales activity has grown throughout the year.

There is speculation that the government may extend the homebuyer's credit program beyond November 30th. There are also rumours that the government may try to do more and enhance the program beyond its current monetary limit and/or include buyers beyond the first-timers.

Regardless of what Uncle Sugar does, the numbers are screaming that now is the time for savvy real estate buyers, new or otherwise, to find a good home, a wise investment or to move up to the home they want at a historically low interest rate that. . . according to all indicators. . . will soon become one solely for the books and fond rememberance.

Whether from market stimulus programs or buyer necessity, the Port Angeles market has picked up in housing units sold over the last two months. Overall sales are only down eleven percent as compared to last year. If you look at sales over the last six months, we are only off by five percent in the number sold.

Dollar-wise, the market is off far more -- due in part to lower home prices in the middle range from repossessed properties and the pressure they exert on the market, as well as the inventory having a larger than normal number of entry-level priced homes.

If you are looking for a modest home or a rental property, there are 26% more homes under $200,000 than we had last year. At the rate they are moving, homes in this range and those priced from $250,000 - $299,999 are almost in a seller's market; but with the average home taking almost a month longer to sell than it did last year, no one seems to notice.

Other than the first tier, homes priced from $200,000 to $249,999 are the only other segment with an increase in number. There are 99 homes under $200,000 and 76 from $200,000 - $249,999. Last year we had 78 and 62, respectively.

If your budget is from $250,000 - $299,999, there are but 38 homes to choose from, down 47% from last year.

In the $300,000 - $349,999 block, you will find 31 to peruse.

Step up to the $350,000 - $399,999 bracket and the pickings get slim. There are only 18 to choose from, down 50% from a year ago.

The next two price points have inventory closer to 2008. The $400,000 - $499,999 segment is off by nineteen percent and the $500,000 - $599,999 group is down just twelve percent. There are 26 of the first and twelve of the second currently available.

The top grouping, $600,000 and up, is holding steady with 34 homes available -- the same as last year's. That could be because at the rate they are moving we have a slightly better than seventeen-and-a-half year supply.

In the past six months, sales in three segments have been stronger than in the same time frame of a year ago. The under $200,000, $250,000 - $299,999 and the $300,00 - $349,999 have all seen an increase. Year-to-date figures show an increase in the first two aforementioned

price points as well as an additional sale in the $500,000 - $599,999 block. Last year we had sold three of the higher priced homes by this point. This year there have been four.

Last year, by this time, 78 homes had been sold under $200,000. This year we've moved 79. In the $250,000 - $299,999 price range we had sold 29 in 2008. Thirty six have found new owners this year.

Sales of homes in the other five price points are off by 34 - 43 percent.

When the new HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) regulation went into effect and effectively threw a monkey wrench into the homebuying process, buyers switched to the two programs exempt from the regulation; FHA and USDA funding. And just like people diverting off a freeway to get around a pile up and clogging the secondary roads, the programs suddenly found themselves inundated with contracts. As a result, processing has slowed substantially. It is now estimated that USDA will take seven to nine weeks to process after the contract has been received. The time necessary to prepare and submit the contract by a USDA broker will vary, but could also be a matter of two to three weeks.

For a first-time homebuyer, if the purchase and sale agreement is not initiated within the next month, they could find themselves closing after the cutoff date for the $8,000 stimulus program.

Things are changing. If you're a seller, things are starting to look up. But if you're a buyer, the party is winding down.

We have had more homes in pending status every month for the past four months than we did in the same time period last year. Inventory is down as well.

Percentage wise, last month the market was 25% below 2008 levels. As of the end of June, the market was down eighteen percent. Last month, the sales level over the past six months was down by seventeen percent. Now it's off by just fifteen percent from the year before.

Current inventory for the Port Angeles market is 327 homes, down fourteen percent from last year's 378. The lowest price segment is also the largest with 89 homes priced under $200,000. That's up 27% from last year's levels.

Homes priced from $200,000 - $249,999 number 84, up 20% from last year. Almost every other segment is down.

Looking for a home priced from $250,000 - $299,999? There are 43% fewer this year with just 38 to choose from. Last year there were 55 homes priced from $300,000 - $349,999. Now we have 27 to choose from.

Selection in the $350,000 - $399,999 segment is also off by more than 50% with only 20 currently available. And homes valued from $400,000 - $499,999 are off by 35%. There are 25 now.

There's one more home in the $500,000

to $599,999 bracket. There's an even dozen now on the market. Conversely, there's one fewer home in the top segment of homes priced at $600,000 and above, but still 32 to choose from.

It's still taking longer to sell a home this year, but just nine percent longer -- with an average of 136 days. Right now, even though inventory is lower, the sales rate gives us almost the same absorption rate as last year at this time; 15.3 months.

Sales of homes under $200,000 have held almost even from last year; with 62 sold so far. Last year we'd sold 61 by this time.

Sales of homes from $200,000 - $249,999 are off by half with just 21 sold so far. The next section, $250,000 - $299,999, have seen five more sales this year with 27 purchased by the end of June. We only sold seven homes priced between $300,000 - $349,999 by this time in 2008. So far this year; three.

We've had one-third fewer buyers in the $350,000 - $399,999 bracket with just eight sold now. $400,000 - $499,999 homes have had three sales. Last year there were six.

There's been one more home sold in the $500,000 - $599,999 range. There's been three so far this year. And if you were looking to sell a home priced above $600,000. . . two have sold by the halfway mark of the year. Down 50% from 2008.

As inventories shrink, demand will start to raise prices. That's the basic law of supply and demand. It won't happen quickly, but signs are there that the process is beginning.

In the first week of July eleven homes sold and thirteen went under contract. Thirty-six were withdrawn, expired or taken temporarily off the market.

Last year the average home sold for 95% of the asking price. At this point the average is 94%.

Sales activity is still down from this point last year, but apparently gaining ground. Last month sales were off 41% year-to-date from 2008 levels and sales in the past six months were off by 27%.

At the end of April the market was down 32% from ‘08 and the "sold in the last six months" level was down by 20 percent. Sixty four homes have sold so far this year. Last year it was 93 by this time. Number of sales in the last six months has reached 117 versus 147 in ‘08.

Inventory has grown from 310 in the last week of March to 313 at the end of April. Compared to last year, there are 5% fewer homes to choose from; although the under $200,000 segment is almost identical in number with 64 now available.

There are 74 homes on the market between $200,000 and $249,999. Last year we had 55 to choose from. The $250,000 - $299,999 bracket has 58 homes. Last year there were sixty-four.

The $300,000 - $349,999 priced homes are almost half as many as in 2008 with just 25 currently on the market.

There are 29% fewer from $350,000 - $399,999 with just 22 available; 17% fewer between $400,000 and $499,999, 25 to choose from; and 19% fewer in the $500,000 - $599,999 range, with only 13 now on the market.

There are a third more homes, 32 versus 24 in ‘08, in the $600,000+ group.

The average house is staying on the market almost five weeks longer than it did last year. The average days on market is now 146 days. Last year the average was one-hundred-twelve.

The under $200,000 segment is pretty much a balanced market with 7.2 months of inventory.

In the last week of April we had six go under contract with 132 average days on market. Four houses closed at an average of 99% of asking price.

Homes priced from $200,000 - $249,999 are moving a bit faster with 143 average days on the market; however, there's a 23.4 month supply.

If you're selling in the $250,000 - $299,999 bracket, be prepared to wait an average of 130 days for a house to move. And there's a 14.5 month supply.

The $300,000 - $349,999 and $500,000 - $599,999 brackets have similar number months of supply, 25 and 26, respectively. Average days: 112 and 131.

The longest wait time on the market is currently the $350,000 - $399,999 home with 204 days. There is almost a nineteen month supply.

The $600,000+ segment has almost eight-years-one-month of inventory.

Statistics are an okay indicator, but sometimes a quick scan can be far more revealing. For example: There's an average list-versus-sold price of 94%, year-to-date, for homes in the Port Angeles market.

In the lowest priced segment, the homes are coming in at 96% of list price. The next two, spanning $200,000 - $299,999, are at 95% each.

There was one house in the $300,000 - $349,999 segment that sold for 88% of asking price; the only sale. Almost the same can be said for the $400,000 - $499,999 block; one sold, 81% of asking.

Houses in the $350,000 - $399,999 range have been averaging 92% of list.

And our final selling segment of homes; the $500,000 - $599,999 homes, has a 91% list to sold price ratio.

Lest you think I miscounted, the $600,000 has no list-to-sold ratio available. None have sold in 2009.

Foreclosed homes are disappearing as investors and homebuyers avail themselves of low prices, historically good interest rates, the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit and programs such as the USDA's 100% financing option. For example, of the eight homes in the $250,000 - $300,000 segment that went under contract last month, six were reposessed properties, many new construction.

If you are considering a new home, the inventory now is ten percent stronger than last year with 310 homes on the market.

There are 58 homes priced under $200,000, an increase of nine percent. Homes priced from $200,000 - $249,999 have a 90% increased inventory over last year's level of 39. There are 74 now.

There are 64 in the $250,000 - $299,999 range. Last year there were 56 at this time. The number of dwellings in the $300,000 - $350,000 price point have dropped to 26 from last year's level of 45; although some of the shift can be attributed to repossessed new construction.

The selection of $350,000 - $399,999 homes remains the same in number from last year with 22 now available. And homes priced in the $400's have grown by four to 23 on the market. There are three fewer homes in the $500,000 - $599,999 bracket with ten now for sale.

Homes in the uppermost segment of $600,000+ have seen a 43% increase in selection with 33 available versus the 26 seen last year.

Last year, at the beginning of April, there had been 73 homes sold in this market. This year we've had 43 so far, a decrease of 41 percent.

Home sales in the $400,000's have dropped from four to one so far this year. Homes listed in the $500's have seen two sales, versus three a year ago. And last year we had had two sales of homes in the $600,000+ and in the $300,000 - $349,999 segments. This year, none.

The number of homes sold in the $250,000 - $299,999 and $350,000 - $399,999 sectors have held even from last year's figures with ten and five sold respectively.

The two lowest price segments are under last year's levels with seventeen homes sold in the under $200,000 segment, versus 29 last year and seven having sold in the $200,000 - $249,000 segment against nineteen previously.

Serious investors from J. Paul Getty to Warren Buffet have attributed success to their philosophy of buying when others are fearful and it appears people are beginning to realize both the wisdom of that philosophy as well as the fact that no one can predict where the bottom of the market will be. Buying now may not get you the absolute best price on a home, but delaying could find you without the home you wanted and at a higher interest rate than previously available, cancelling out the advantage of the lower price. And with market levels where they are, it is a buyer's market. Sellers are aware of this fact as repossessions and slower market sales keep pressure on prices. But as the repo's leave the market that pressure will lessen.

Indicative of this market awakening is the number of homes sold within the last six months. A month ago there had been 24 sales in the market. As of the end of March there were 43 sold. While the market is down 41% compared to last year, over the last six months activity is only off by 27 precent with 118 sales since October.

So whether you are looking for an investment property or a new home, a repossession or a good property at a very do-able price, be aware. Opportunity knocks. It doesn't beat down your door.

Other markets are improving and ours is as well. To view the current inventory, visit: www.portangeles.com or call me at 457-0456 for information.