Don Pickett

I have been a Realtor since 1980 and over a long period in my real estate career this was an easy question to answer. During the late 1980's and 90's, you could expect an average of about a 3% increase in your home value per year depending on the location, condition, year built , etc. Beginning in 2003, this all changed with an artificial rise in residential prices; not values. Based on the sales prices of homes today, the real value of your home now is more closely aligned with home prices in 2002.

"I WISH I HADDA......" Or another way of putting it "Hind sight is 20-20". In the late 90s and prior to the recent drop of real estate values, I often heard people say I wish I'd bought some beach property back in the 1980's and 90's. Given the realities of today's economy, we know that the prices of beach properties have gone down. But, looking back, we can all wish we would have taken advantage of opportunities in purchasing real estate. The secret is knowing when to buy. No one really knows what tomorrow has in store for us. However, like a weatherman making predictions based on their indicators and experience, we can likewise make some educated projections.

Our Tallahassee Metro Area (TMA - 5 surrounding counties) median sales prices have done much better than the rest of the State of Florida averages. In our area, we are staying close to the National averages. Just a little refresher; the "median price" is half way between the lowest and the highest price. The "average price" is just that, the average. In 2009 the TMA average "resale homes" sold price was $198,719 and the median was $174,700. Our median sales price has been about the same as the National median at $175,000 for the past eight months and the State-wide has been below $150,000. In January there was the usual dip in the number of sales as in previous years with an upturn expected in March. While this dip was 16% less than in 2009, our median sales price was 12% higher, which was the highest increase in the State of Florida.

In December 2008 in Leon County there were 4 single family homes with 1400 to 1600 square feet, 2 car garage and no pool that sold for an average price of $172,000. In July 2009 there were 27 like homes that sold for an average price of $179,000 and in December, 2009, 14 homes sold for an average price of $186,000........that is an 8% increase in 1 year! This is a VERY POSITIVE sign for our Tallahassee real estate market. KEEP IN MIND that this is not an across the board increase. For 2008 in Leon County (not the TMA) there were 1850 single family homes that sold with an average sales price of $242,600 and a median sales price of $203,500. In 2009, 1802 single family homes sold at an average price of $216,800 (10.6% decrease) and a median price of $185,000 (9% decrease). So why the huge difference between the overall single family home decrease and the 8% increase in the model of a home described above? In 2009, 57% of all the homes sold in Leon County sold for an average price of no more than $200,000. A 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home with a 2 car garage, under $200,000 is the most popular home model.

As to why the Tallahassee area has faired much better than most parts of the State, I think of two primary reasons. One is our job base with the Capitol, FSU, FAMU, TCC and numerous other institutions' of education beyond high school. Second is that Tallahassee, although a great place to live with a wealth of attractions to enjoy, is not considered a major tourist destination with a high demand of resort type real estate such as Naples and Destin where the bottom fell out, leaving a huge inventory of homes clogging the market.

So........is it time for you to buy a home? The Tallahassee home market is relatively stable with homes priced below (approximately) $300,000. Homes in this price range are, as a rule priced fairly. Mortgage interest rates are at record lows. However, are the rates going to stay this low for long? With several indicators pointing to market stabilization, it's very possible that interest rates will begin to rise. If not soon, the only way they will go is up, eventually.

So if you are waiting for the prices to come down......you just may be losing out, not only with a possible higher mortgage payment with a higher home price, or even a lower home price with a higher interest rate; but, the joy of owning your own Home.

I'm busy and other Realtors I have contacted this weekend have been busy. Buyers from out of town have been contacting me; parents are looking to buy a condo for their kids for college. Some buyers that have been waiting for the "right" time may realize it is passing, or has passed them by. There are plenty of great buys and sellers are ready to do what they need to do. It appears that mortgage interest rates are climbing a little each week......."What goes Up will go Down and what goes Down will go Up".....look at gas prices too. College parents know they have to get their kids a place to live for early August and families needing to get settled before the local K to 12 schools open in August, as well. Maybe all the current "busy" is also being stimulated by the procrastinators that suddenly realize that their time is short for that "buy of a life-time".

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

We had the usual increase in real estate home sales in May in Tallahassee (Leon County), though fewer than May last year. There were 153 single family homes sold compared with last year‘s195. 122 homes sold in April; so, our sales in May was a 25% increase. In May the average single family home in Leon County sold for $224,099, and the average listed price was $237,835. Therefore the average home sold for 94% of the asking price. The median sales price for May was $179,000. The median sales price is what most published homes sales reports use for comparisons. That is the reason why some buyers coming to Tallahassee find our prices are higher than what they have read about. The average days on the market was 131 days based on the last listed price. If a listing is removed from the market and re-entered as a new listing, the days on the market starts ticking anew; therefore, the actual days a home is on the market is likely to be higher. There are currently 201 homes under contract that are contingent upon likely either inspections or financing. Additionally there are 137 that are (pending) about to close. The number of currently listed single family homes on the market for sale in Leon County is 1,733. You don't have to be a mathematical wizard to recognize at the rate homes are selling, it will take a considerable time to bring that number down. Sellers, working with their Realtor, need to do everything possible to improve the attractiveness of their home in the market place to attract buyers. Primarily, pricing it to current market conditions. IT MUST BE THE BEST BUY. It is expected that in the next several months we will see further increases in the number of homes sold before the normal seasonal slow-down begins in September.

I frequently have been asked recently if we have bottomed.... "I think those properties that are on the market for under $400,000 are about at the bottom if they are priced were they should be in this market. For a buyer planning to purchase a home to live in, if he does not buy very soon, I think he will be "missing the boat". Interest rates are very low and there are great dollar incentives for the first time home buyers. Interest rates seem to be headed up and there is a deadline on the availability of the incentives.

The Florida Association of Realtors has just released the April Single-Family Resale Sales report. The Tallahassee Metro Area (TMA includes Leon, Wakulla, Franklin, Jefferson, and Gadsden counties) reported a decrease of 28% of number or sales compared to April 2008. While this may sound bad, the January and February decreases were close to 40% and last April had a 29% decrease compared to 2007. The worse number of sales decrease in the State was Gainesville Metro Area with a 40% decrease. On the other hand, TMA had the best Median Sales Price comparison in the entire State with a decrease of 4% followed by Gainesville and Pensacola's 9% decrease. Our median sales price in April was $182,000 and the State's average price was $138,500. The Tallahassee Metro Area median sales price is higher than that of the National average of $170,200 and a lot higher than the State's over-all average. Our values are continuing to hold better than most parts of the State.

Looking at Leon County in April 2009 the number of sales of 104 single family resale homes was 23% less than last April, the average sales price of $231,256 was 5.6% less and our median sales price of $185,750 was 6.6% less than for April 2008.

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

Have you ever met a sales person that told you otherwise? No matter what the item is....a car, house, appliance, TV, etc......"if you don't buy today you will regret it later." Yep, I am a salesman as well; but, I am a believer in informing the customer and letting them make the decision that best fits their personal situation. Yes, even those that purchased a home at the peak of the market it was the right time for many of them for their personal needs.

I have been sort of laying low in recent months in encouraging prospective buyers wanting to buy a home to do so; but, unsure if it was the right time. Everyone would like to "buy low and sell high" and we know that does not always work. Have the home prices bottomed-out, are interest rates going to get any lower and most important how secure is my job/business. There is a saying that I think fits the current real estate market: "Some People Make Things Happen, Some Watch Things Happen, while Others Sit around and Wonder What Happened". So which one are you going to be?

There are three things I saw in today's (Sunday) Tallahassee Democrat newspaper that might help you make your decision as to is it the right time. On the front page was the news that pink slips have been sent out to State workers as a result of cut backs due to necessary legislative action. In the Business section there is a chart showing that the consumer confidence index rose for the third straight month. In the Real Estate Weekly the Consumer Mortgage Information page showed that interest rates remain below 5%. Keep in mind when you see or read about interest rates, always look to see how many "points" are associated with the given rate.

THE LIKELYHOOD is that interest rates will not get any lower and there have been signs of them creeping up. The home prices right now are about where they should be with a typical normal 3% annual rate. If home prices still go down a little and interest rates go up you are no better off.....it all balances out. The last report of the percentage of jobless was down slightly. It is becoming more frequent to see companies reporting a profit in the business section. National economists are predicting a turn-around in the economy before the end of the year.

For many of you, particular those that can benefit from "Stimulus" incentives, that have been waiting for the right time......"Now Is The Time".

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com www.tallahassee-area-homes.com