The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in East Baton Rouge parish for the years 2004 through May 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.
Although seasonality effects are obvious, overall unit sales in the parish have been trending downward since hurricane Katrina as the following chart illustrates. Currently, unit sales volume for both new construction and for previously owned homes are at 5-year lows.
Looking specifically, at May unit sales for 2009 and for the previous five years we can see that homes in both market segments are at historic lows, at least for the five year period examined.
A simple linear calculation of unit sales through the end of 2009 projects that new construction will be down nearly 8% while previously owned new homes will be down by about 12%.
The next chart illustrates that the average price of a previously owned home sold during 2009 is 6.5% lower than in 2008. New construction prices are also down buy by a more modest 3.5%.
Overall the supply of homes is more or less balanced by the demand. Based upon the average absorption rate of homes during 2009, there is a six-month supply making it a neutral market. If one looks at different price ranges, however, different conclusions can be drawn. A sellers market condition exists for homes priced below $250K while a buyers market condition exists for homes priced over $300K. For homes priced over $400K there is more than a 20-month supply based upon the average absorption rate for 2009.
Readers are encouraged to comment with questions or suggestions for improvement. Anyone interested in exploring the possibility of buying or selling property is welcomed to call or e-mail me.
©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com
The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through May 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.
The real estate news in Ascension parish is mixed but, in my opinion, generally good news. As the following chart illustrates, seasonality is taking effect as we move toward the historically favorable summer selling months. Unit sales of previously owned homes, although lower than last year are at levels similar to pre-Katrina levels.
Average home prices have declined as the next chart illustrates. With respect to new home prices, the drop is due primarily to a shift in what is being purchased rather than a drop in value. More affordable homes are being purchased. The most successful subdivisions are those which offer a limited number of floor plans with a lower standard of amenities than was the trend a just a few years back.
the average price of a previously owned home has receded somewhat but only about 2-4%.
Although lower than the years immediately before and after Katrina, unit sales of new homes is improving. In fact, every month in 2009 saw more new homes sold than in every corresponding month of 2008.
The next chart illustrates the price point of new homes sold during 2009. We can see a dense cluster of homes sold between about $160K and $215K which were priced at or below $110/sq.ft. of living area. A significant number of homes were also sold at higher prices and price points but the drop in average price and average price per square foot illustrates the trend toward more affordable homes.
The really good news in the new home market is that inventories are being sold out. We previously reported that at the end of 2008 there was an 8.2 month supply of new homes in the parish. As the following chart illustrates, that has dropped to 4.2 months as of the end of May. It is a seller's market condition in most price ranges. The only area of deep concern is for homes priced at $400K and up where there is a 20 month supply. While there are five fewer homes in inventory today (20) than there were at the end of 2008, the rate of sales for these homes has dropped significantly from 2.3 homes per month in 2008 to only 1 per month on average during 2009.
The re-sale (previously owned homes) market statistics are similar to what was observed at the end of 2008. At that time we reported 385 homes available representing a 6.1 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2008. As of the end of May, we have 361 homes available representing a 6.5 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2009. Fewer homes per month are being sold but, as we saw earlier, we are just entering the peak selling season.
There is an oversupply situation with respect to the higher priced homes. In fact, at current absorption rates there is more than a four year supply of homes priced at $400K and above.
Readers are encouraged to comment with questions or suggestions for improvement. Anyone interested in exploring the possibility of buying or selling property is welcomed to call or e-mail me.
©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com
The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Livingston parish for the years 2004 through February 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.
The following chart plots unit sales of new construction and pre-owned homes (the bars) as well as overall unit sales and the six-month moving average of overall unit sales. We can see a generally downward trend in unit sales beginning in mid-2007. Examining more closely we can see that previously owned home unit sales have retracted to pre-Katrina levels for this time of year but that new construction unit sales has dropped below pre-Katrina levels.
Examining the absorption chart by price/sq.ft. for homes in the re-sale market segment we can see that overall a buyer's market exist but that for homes priced below $110/sq.ft. a seller's market exists. This is in the range where the highest velocity of home sales occurs.
In the new home segment, we observe that nearly half of the homes sold since the beginning of the year (8.5 out of 18) were priced below $100/sq.ft. and that in this range a seller's market exists. At all other price points buyer's market conditions persist.
The following chart shows the history of average home prices in the parish since 2004. We can see that between 2008 and 2009 the average price of a new home sold dropped over 7%. The average price of a previously owned home also dropped but only very slightly. Re-sale homes appear to be holding their value.
The next chart examines new construction by subdivision. We can see that for most subdivisions where home sales have occurred, a seller's market or near neutral market exists. We can also see that a significant amount (over 60%) of inventory exists in subdivisions for which no home sales have occurred this year.
Based upon this analysis, I believe that in Livingston parish, the market for affordable housing is in pretty good shape overall. There are some serious issues with respect to new construction but they seem to be related to price and location and a prudent home buyer could do quite well.
©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through February 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.
The next chart shows the history of Average home prices in East Baton Rouge Parish separating new construction from previously owned homes. The average home price over the first two months of 2009 shows a drop from the 2008 average of about 6% for new construction and about 3% for homes in the resale market segment.
If one looks at the average selling price per square foot of living area, however, new construction dropped only about 1.8% while homes in the resale segment dropped nearly 3.9%
Unit sales are at near historic low points. There has been a more or less steady drop in unit sales since August of 2008. While much of that drop can be attributed to the normal seasonality of the market, I believe it would be imprudent to assume that the nation's current financial crisis has had no effect upon our market. That said, our market has fared much better than elsewhere in the country. Our prices, while down a bit have not plummeted as in other areas. I think that the small drop in prices is more a reflection upon the inventory mix and that when pent up demand is released and has been satisfied, that appreciation in home values will once again be observed. In the meantime, real estate seems to be a safer place for wealth than many other investment options.
In terms of new construction absorption and inventory levels, there is currently a 7.5 month supply overall making this a buyer's market. If we drill down through the various price ranges we can see that the problem with oversupply exists for homes priced over $400K where there is a 21 month supply and a clear buyer's market. For price ranges below $400K a neutral market or even a seller's market exists. A shift appears to have occured between 2008 and 2009 in terms of the velocity of home sales. The absorption rates in 2009 were highest for homes selling for between $200K and $300K while in 2008 the highest velocity was achieved between $150K and $200K. This will bear watching in the coming months to see if the shift persists and a trend develops.
With respect to previously owned homes the absorption chart shows something different. While overall a similar 7.7 month supply exists, a buyer's market condition (over 6.5 months supply) market condition exists for all but the lowest price ranges where the highest velocity of home sales occurs.
©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
The following chart shows unit sales by month since January 2004. We observe that overall (indicated by the green lines) there has been a generally downward trend since late 2006. If one digs deeper into the data, one finds that most of this downward trend is due to a continuing drop in the sales of new construction. This suggests the drop in new home prices is a price elasticity issue rather than due to the current economic crisis and the restricted availability of credit. Homes in the pre-existing market space maintained their sales rate up until September of 2008 when the mortgage meltdown occured and hurrican Gustav took a toll on the Greater Baton Rouge metro area market.
Comparing February unit sales with unit sales in February of prior years, we observe that in the re-sale market space, unit sales are more or less equivalent to prior years (not counting February of 2006 when the positive effects of hurricane Katrina in Ascension parish were manifest). New construction, however, remains low. One bright spot here is that new construction unit sales in February 2009 were higher than in 2008 suggesting that the decline may be at an end and pent up demand could be ready to break loose.
In terms of pricing, average prices in both market segments were growing, or at least remaining stable, through 2008. With two months of 2009 sales recorded, the average price of both new construction and previously owned homes has declined by about 5%.
The following chart illustrates that the drop in the average price was not due to consumers simply purchasing smaller houses because the average selling price per square foot of living area also dropped.
For pre-owned homes, we observe an oversupply situation. Overall there is a nine-month supply. Looking more deeply into the following chart, however, we can see that this is primarily due to oversupply of more expensive homes. Affordable housing under $200K is in a seller's market where demand is high and supply is low.
Overall it is a buyer's market in the new construction segment. In general, however, affordable housing is in balance or exhibits characteristics of a seller's market while the situation worsens as price increases. The highest velocity of home sales occured in the $151K-$200K price range which has accounted for 42% of new home sales in 2009 through the end of February.
Looking at the top 10 selling subdivisions for new construction in 2009, we can see confirmation that more affordable housing is indeed selling at a higher rate.
©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
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