Livingston Parish Real Estate Market Update - April 2008

This update examines the condition of the real estate market in Livingston parish. For the purposes of this analysis, data for detached single family homes in Livingston Parish that was extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database was used. Sales recorded through April 2008 are included in the analysis as well as the inventory of active listings as of 5/5. The data and my subsequent analysis, while deemed reliable, is not guaranteed.

The average price of a home in Livingston parish is more or less the same in 2008 as it was in 2007. The good news is that Livingston parish hasn't seen the dramatic drop in prices that some other portions of the nation have experienced.

April unit sales were down in both the re-sale and new home market segments. While the re-sale segment has seen April unit sales drop to pre-Katrina levels, new home sales remain at a five-year low.

Overall the six month moving average for unit sales is still trending downward but the re-sale segment is holding steady. One expects to see improvement as seasonality kicks in and we should see improvement during the peak selling season.

Over 80% of re-sale homes sold in the parish during 2008 were priced at or below $200K. The supply of homes over $200K exceeds the demand and it is a buyer's market. While only 20% of 2008 home sales were over $200K, over 40% of the inventory is priced over $200K

For new homes, there is a 7.4 month supply overall at current 2008 absorption rates... a little too much but not that bad. The price range with the highest velocity is $151K-200K. The market is relatively balanced here with a 6.1 month supply of new home. The next highest velocity is seen in the $101K-150K price range where it is a sellers market with only 3.6 months supply on hand. There is a surplus of new homes prices over $200K with over a year's supply in all price ranges from $200K up. Over 46% of the inventory is in these upper price ranges while accounting for only about 26% of the demand.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have about this report or if you'd like to discuss representation in buying, selling or building a home. Customized reports for a particular market segment or area can also be generated.

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As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Market Update - April 2008

This update examines the condition of the real estate market in East Baton Rouge parish. For the purposes of this analysis, data for detached single family homes in East Baton Rouge Parish that was extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database was used. Sales recorded through April 2008 are included in the analysis as well as the inventory of active listings as of 5/5. The data and my subsequent analysis, while deemed reliable, is not guaranteed.

The previous chart shows that home prices have not fallen in East Baton Rouge parish as they have done in other parts of the nation. In fact, the average price of a new home has risen substantially while the average price of a previously owned home has remained relatively the same as 2007.

On the other hand, unit sales have fallen when compared to April home sales in previous years.

Looking at all periods since 2003, we can see that the East Baton Rouge Real Estate market has softened but just a bit. While there was a smalldrop in overall unit sales from March 08 to April 08, a similar drop has occurred in two out of five of the previous years. Nevertheless, we'll be watching this statistic closely.

Examining absorption rates of re-sale homes and comparing that with current inventory levels shows a very healthy market with only a 5.4 month supply overall. In fact, in the lower price ranges (below $200K) it is clearly a seller's market. Not until the price exceeds $350K does it become a buyer's market.

With new construction, on the other hand, an 8.5 month supply exists... a buyer's market overall. In the lower price ranges it is, more or less, a neutral market and in the high price range (over $350K) a buyer's market exists. One niche opportunity that builder's may want to explore is in the $300K-350K price range where only about 3-months supply exists. The demand exceeds 5 homes per month and there are only 16 homes available. Finally, it is interesting to note that the demand homes over $400K is substantial and equivalent to the demand in the $200K-250K range. There are simply too many of these $400K+ homes currently available... a 16.3 month supply.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have about this report or if you'd like to discuss representation in buying, selling or building a home. Customized reports for a particular market segment or area can also be generated.

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As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Update - April 2008

This update examines the condition of the real estate market in Ascension parish. For the purposes of this analysis, data for detached single family homes in Ascension Parish that was extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database was used. Sales recorded through April 2008 are included in the analysis as well as the inventory of active listings as of 5/5. The data and my subsequent analysis, while deemed reliable, is not guaranteed.

The average price of a home in Ascension parish has shown only modest growth so far in 2008. Given the falling home values in many other areas of the nation, this is great news for Ascension homeowners. The following chart tracks average home prices in the parish differentiation between new construction and homes in the re-sale market segment.

Looking at unit sales in Ascension we can see that the re-sale market segment is quite healthy. In fact, unit sales in this market segment were greater in April 2008 than in April 2007. It's quite a different story for the new construction market. Sales of new construction in April of 2008 was less than half that of April 2007. The following chart tracks unit sales of both market segments over time.

If we look at absorption rates for re-sale homes, as in the next chart, we can see that 59% of all homes sales during 2008 has been for homes selling for $200,000 and below and that in these more affordable price ranges the inventory levels are such that it is clearly a seller's market. As one gets into the higher price ranges it becomes a buyer's market but not substantially so until home prices exceed $350,000. Overall the absorption rate for parish homes in this market segment is already greater than that in 2003 and 2004.

For new construction, on the other hand there is more than eleven months of inventory overall. As the next chart shows, supply and demand are nearly balanced only in the narrow price range of $151K-200K. It is a buyer's market, in varying degrees, in all other price ranges. The highest velocity of home sales was in the price ranges encompassing $150,000 up to $300,000. Seventy three percent (73%) of all new homes sold between January through April of this year have been in this price range.

If we look at the same new construction data and examine the selling price per square foot (as in the next chart) rather than the selling price, we can observe a few things. Immediately we notice that the majority (over 80%) of new homes sold were priced in the range between $100/sq.ft. and $139.99/sq.ft. Under $120/sq.ft. a seller's market exists while homes priced over $130/sq.ft. are in a buyer's market. Between $120/sq.ft. and $130/sq.ft. there is a 7-month supply... technically a buyer's market but only just.

If one looks only at 2008 sales and plots unit sales for different sizes of homes in the various price ranges something interesting emerges. We can see peaks in unit sales for smaller homes (under 2000 sq.ft.) priced between $150,000 and $200,000. These would be homes prices around $110/sq.ft. Homes between $200,000 and $250,000 have peaks in unit sales between 1500 sq.ft. and 2500 sq.ft. of living area and these too would be priced around $110/sq.ft. The largest single peak is for homes priced between $250K and $300K which contain between 2000 and 2500 sq.ft. in living area. These homes are generally priced in the $120-129.99/sq.ft. range.

It is generally the smaller custom home builders pricing homes over $120/sq.ft. and, in many of the newer subdivisions, we see homes priced over $130/sq/ft. While there is a small but steady demand for homes in the $130-140/sq.ft. range once the price exceeds $140/sq.ft. the demand drops off dramatically. Unfortunately for home builders, but perhaps giving home buyers an advantage, there is more supply than demand for homes priced over $130/sq.ft.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have about this report or if you'd like to discuss representation in buying, selling or building a home.

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As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

Livingston Parish Real Estate Market Update - 1st Quarter 2008

Home prices are holding their own in Livingston parish. While the average price of a new home has risen about 4% from the 2007 average, the average price of a previously occupied home has remained essentially constant.

In terms of unit sales, Livingston parish has returned to pre-Katrina levels overall. The strength is attributable to homes in the re-sale market segment. New home sales are lagging somewhat.
Overall, there are more houses in inventory than demand for them especially in the higher price ranges.
Most of the demand for new houses is in the under $200K range which has accounted for 73% of new home sales in the parish. Nearly 47% of new home inventory, however, has list prices exceeding $200K making it a buyers market.
With respect to the re-sale market segment, there is a 6.6-month supply overall. Again, most of the demand is for homes priced under $200K and as prices exceed $200K there is over a year's supply of homes at the current absorption rates.

If you have any questions or you would like more detailed information, please feel free to contact me at (225)413-3624 or you can contact me via e-mail.

The preceding analysis was based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database for detached single family homes currently on the market or sold between January 1, 2003 and March 31, 2008. The information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

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As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

East Baton Rouge Parish Real Estate Market Update - 1st Quarter 2008

Home prices are holding their own in East Baton Rouge parish. The average price of homes sold in 2008 was about 12.5% higher than the 2007 average. The average price of a home in the re-sale market segment dropped slightly (about 2.5%) but remained higher than in previous years.

In terms of unit sales for all detached single family homes, volume is down it has turned around and is picking up. The strength in unit sales is attributable to home sales in the re-sale market segment.
Overall, there is only a 5.9 month supply of homes although it is clearly a buyer's market for homes over $350K where there is more than a 13-month supply.
There is over 9-months supply of newly construction homes with nearly a year and a half's worth of inventory of new homes priced over $400K. The good news for builders who have homes in this upper price range is that the absorption rate in 2008 is higher than in all previous years.
There is only 5.2-months supply of previously occupied homes. There is an over supply of homes in the upper price ranges (over $350K) but supply and demand below $350K is more or less balanced. While the absorption rate is currently at a historic low, we are at the start of the peak selling season and March saw a significant increase. If the trend continues, it is possible that we could meet or exceed the 2007 absorption rate and possibly even exceed it.

If you have any questions or you would like more detailed information, please feel free to contact me at (225)413-3624 or you can contact me via e-mail.

The preceding analysis was based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database for detached single family homes currently on the market or sold between January 1, 2003 and March 31, 2008. The information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

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As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved