This interim report supplements my 2007 Year-end Residential Real Estate Report . The report examines data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors database for detached single family residences in Ascension Parish.
The chart below show unit sales in January of 2008 compared with the month of January in 2003 through 2007. We can see that in the re-sale market space, home sales were below the Katrina bump but were above January sales in the pre-Katrina years. It was a very different story for new construction, however. New construction unit sales were lower in January of 2008 than in any of the previous five years!
While the previous chart shows that new home unit sales are down, the chart below shows that the average sales price has increased for both new construction and for homes in the re-sale market space.
Looking at the entire 5 year history of unit sales for new construction we can see that a big drop in unit sales was recorded in January 2008. In fact, January sales were below any point in the five year history shown.
In the re-sale market space we see that a slight up tick in unit sales was recorded for January 2008. The 6-month moving average was above pre-Katrina levels.
Dollar sales of new construction are also down sharply.
Dollar sales of re-sale homes remained higher than pre-Katrina levels.
We also looked at inventory levels over the past several months for new construction in various price ranges. It appears that inventory levels of homes in the $150K-199K price range are trending upward.
As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.netfor real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.
Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.
©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
| Santa Maria is an upscale neighborhood located off of Old Perkins Road in Baton Rouge.
The homes built in this subdivision are primarily French country and Acadian in style and are built surrounding
The Santa Maria Golf Course. The following market analysis was based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database and while every effort was made to ensure accuracy no warranties are made. Sales data from 2002 through 2007 were examined as was the current inventory as of January 25, 2008. The following graphs illustrate the average and median home prices in Santa Maria for both new construction and the resale market between 2002 and 2007.   |
   The Santa Maria golf course is a public BREC-managed golf course. It is an 18-hole par 72 golf course designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. It was purchased by BREC
in 1990. The Spanish-style clubhouse includes a pro shop, a full-service restaurant and a private conference/dining room and a fitness center. The restaurant and veranda overlook the beautiful 18th green |
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The charts to the left look at monthly absorption rates between 2002 and 2007. As before, new construction is examined separately from homes in the resale market space. The charts show the absorption rates by price range, by price/sq.ft. and by size. During 2007, 14 new homes and 24 resale homes were sold yielding an absorption rates of 1.3 homes/month and 2.0 homes/month respectively. Given current inventory levels and at 2007 absorption rates, there is an over 18-month supply of new construction but only a 5-month supply of resale homes. Because the absorption rates for any given price range, $/sq.ft. or size are so small (less than 1/month) no meaningful conclusions can be drawn about any particular niche. Suffice it to say that there is a significant over supply of new construction in Santa Maria while the resale market is still quite healthy. Consumers looking to purchase a high-end home in Baton Rouge should be able to negotiate a very good deal that this time. Readers can click here to view the currently active listings in Santa Maria. |
As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com or www.LiveAscension.com for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.
©2008 by Don Stern - all rights reserved
| Old Dutchtown, a relatively new Ascension Parish subdivision located off of Landry Road in Gonzales, LA, was the most successful subdivision in terms of absolute new home units sold during 2007. According to data gathered from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database, a total of 49 new homes were sold during 2007. The #2 and #3 subdivisions came in at 37 and 36 units respectively. Developer and builder John Fetzer, III came upon a formula which appears to have appealed to a significant niche of new home buyers in Ascension Parish.
At this writing, there are 26 Old Dutchtown homes in the new construction and resale market space listed in the MLS which range in price from $259,750 to $320,500. Click here to search currently active Old Dutchtown listings. |
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| The tables to the right show the absorption rates observed for new construction in the subdivision from 2005 through 2007. The current inventory levels are as of January 25th. Overall, there is only a 4.9 month supply of homes in the subdivision. During 2007 the velocity of home sales highest in the $251K-$300K price range. Half of the homes sold were priced between $130 and $139.99 per square foot of living area but, currently, nearly half of the inventory is priced between $140 and $149.99 per square foot. At 2007 absorption rates this translates to over 15-months supply. The inventory at this price point are between 1836 sq.ft. and 2055 sq.ft. In the lower $130-$139.99/sq.ft. range the current inventory has homes containing between 1950 sq.ft. and 2440 sq.ft. of living area.
The following chart shows monthly new home sales in the subdivision since it's inception. |
  
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We'll continue to monitor this subdivision during 2008.
As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.netfor real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.
Contact me via e-mail or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.
©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
I have some clients looking for investment property in the Pelican Point Golf Community. Many of the qualifying properties we looked at were townhomes. Previously, my Pelican Point Market Analyses dealt primarily with detached single family homes so I wanted to take a closer look at the sales history with respect to the townhomes. A total of forty-eight recorded sales between January 2002 and present were examined. The first parameter looked at was the selling price. The following chart plots the selling price vs. time. While only 22% of the variation in price is attributable to the time we can see that prices are increasing over time. Between 2002 and present a linear regression analysis calculates that the rate of increase has been about $25.51/day or about $9,311 per year.
The next chart plotted selling price per square foot of living area over time. A regression analysis here revealed that over 40% of the variation in pricing is explained by the date of sale. The equation predicts that selling price/sq.ft. is rising by almost $4.75 per year (1.3¢/day).
The third chart shows the average price/sq.ft. of townhomes but distinguishes between new homes and homes in the resale market segment. This chart shows some decline in the average home price in the resale market during 2007 but this drop was attributable to a single townhome being sold well below the others.
Finally, I looked at the Days on Market statistics for townhomes. One can see that the demand for townhomes historically was not very strong within the subdivision and they tended to remain on the market for months or even years. The following chart shows that, in 2007, townhomes sold much more quickly than in previous years.
The data used for this analysis was extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. While every attempt was made to ensure accuracy, no warranties are either expressed or implied. Please feel free to leave comments. You can also reach me at (225) 413-3624 or by e-mail.
As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.PelicanPointHomes.net and www.LiveAscension.com for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.
©2008 by Don Stern - all rights reserved
The new Eagles Landing subdivision located off of Hwy 42 and Joe Sevario Rd. is progressing nicely. As you can see from the photos below, underground utilities and road beds are being installed and constructed now. The subdivision will feature two lakes, walking trails and a park. Security cameras are planned which will monitor cars entering and leaving the subdivision. A five-year extended warranty will be provided for each new home built in the subdivision.
Brochures and other marketing materials should be ready soon. In the meantime, anyone interested in more information can obtain the sales plat and restrictions at EaglesLanding.LiveAscension.com or call (225)413-3624.
As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com or www.LiveAscension.com for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.
©2008 by Don Stern - all rights reserved
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