Buddy Kain

I was just looking at headlines on CNN:

Yesterday: Homes Sales Up.

Today: Historic Slide in Values.

If you practice real estate in Southeast MI you have seen both of these for months. I started digging and putting together tons of data, still trying to put it all together but here are some nuggets.

Average Sales price in Genesee County last year was $73,418.00 in 2005 if was $129,760.00

60% of sales in Genesse County Q4 were foreclosures.

The last time the average sales price in Genesee County was $73,000? Late 1992.

The total volume of sales in Genesee County (the number that sales commissions and tax revenue are based on) fell over 50% from 2005 ( $734,964,635) to 2008 ($350,057,254).

Now it is easy to look at Flint and say yes job losses drop values...how about some Jewels of Michigan

Rochester/Rochester Hills; the data I have suggests that the average sales price dropped from $321,541 to $250,170 and price per sq foot from $139 to $105.

What I call the 'Brown House" report (homes built after 2000) shows price peaking in 2006 at $159 per sq foot and dropping to $120 in 2008. Prices $472,000 to $374,539.

Even Birmingham MI has showed a great deal of price softening, the lowest priced home in 2005 was a sale for $119,000 that the listing agent indicated was a short sale. In 2008 there were 20 sales less than this with foreclosure selling in the $70,000 range. Rough data on the high end of the market (homes over 4000 sq ft) indicates a drop in price per sq ft of around $90 but B'Ham is one of those towns that like the throw $1 sales prices in the MLS, so I will have to go back to the deeds...ugh! ( I love a guy that drives a Maserati, D&G sunglasses, and a honker watch but wants to be descreet about the price of his home!)

These are some big drops in a two year period of time, but not near the 20% Case Shiller reported for Detroit. Those numbers are far out of whack because when an inner city repo falls from $20,000 to $5,000 (which is the norm anymore) that 75% drop drives the other numbers out of whack.

It is also no suprise sales numbers were up in December, there seems to be a large number of cash buyers especially for the lowest priced homes. Q4 in Genesee county actually had an average sales price of $61,959.00.

It all starts Thursday Night or should I say Friday morning at 12:01 am. That is when the pros emerge. The shops at Prime Outlets open at 12:01 to get there share of the Black Friday Profit and from what I here they will hit a grand slam by 9 am. I was there for the inaugural event it was off the hook! People everywhere, I was totally outmatched. But I have trained, I am battle tested, I have my scars I can handle the pressure I will shop with the professionals!

Well that is my battle cry but lets be serious a women that served her family turkey in the pop up camper outside with her kids sleeping there as we shop only has that kitty sweatshirt on to play coy, she can and will drop me in heartbeat if I eye the last pair of North Face polar fleece gloves too long. I have seen it happen. As I reach for them the crowd will here "oh NO YOU DIDN'T" and I will feel the wrath. Well browsing is fun too!

I am going to start carb loading, I will let you know how it goes.

2009 is bringing a lot of change to our markets, our lives, our nation and our world. I have been thinking a ton about what 2009 will bring for me and the people I care about, my family and my co-workers. I have always thought of myself as part of something bigger, I am a piece of the machine. I want to be part of the evolution that is real estate.

What I need to become better in 2009.

I need to continue to work toward integrating sustainable practices into my personal and professional life. So far I have traded my HUGE SUV, 13 mpg for a wagon that gets 26 mpg. I have dropped my paper and printing by 80%. I am sharing trips to the farmers market with my neighbors and asking if they need anything anytime I run an errand in an effort to "save a trip". I have changed all my light bulbs. I have a long way to go.

I need to continue to find new and friendly ways to connect and communicate with consumers. I am so over being the target consumer. I hate the feeling of interruption, and it makes me nervous. I need to find a way to get information that is less intrusive for me and ways to be that way for consumers that need my services.

Efficiency is key, if everyone is moving in the same direction, it is easier to get there.

Forget the word I, it is nearly impossible to forge ahead in tough times alone, it is impossible to forge ahead in tough times with selfish people.

When I figure the last one out this blog will be rewritten!

I love the Flint Journal, our local "paper" that has a great deal to do with the demise of Flint MI.

This article is sweet, the locals are doing something to make the decay a little more bearible (no pun intended!). But the poll!!! Are they serious? This is the same publication that brought you the "No Ho Zone" a couple of weeks ago.

Coming to a neighborhood near you!

Rock On!

Year to date sales of 3279 vs same period in 2007 of 3243.

That is correct, unit sales are up this year in Genesee County (Flint area) Michigan. Average price is down, but is it at the bottom? If not it is darn close. There is a lot of "smart money" that left the market four years ago coming back into the investment side.

After a fourth quarter of banks purging inventory at all costs,we will probably see prices level out and perhaps volume slow a little. Interest rates are too good right now to ignore the screaming deals that will hit the market in fourth quarter.

There is a bright future. Inventory needs to be cleaned up, there needs to be a plan to deal with excess housing (perhaps parks or urban farms). There are great opportunities for this market to make a statement about what it wants to be in the future.

Go Green, sustainable housing fits very well with the tax free zones and college housing plans.

Research Park made up of Kettering, Mott and U of M talent. Business will go where the talent is (assuming we get our awful tax situation in line here in Michigan)

Business incubators, for new technology (alternative fuels, diesel technology) or companies working on new models in changing markets (advertising, real estate, automotive sales all $50 billion plus industries in need of an overhaul).

International Trade, hopefully the Mid Michigan Global Link project will get a foothold and live up to its potential.

It has been a very long time since we could sales are UP in Flint Michigan!!!!