Dave Swenson

Here we are. I've said "we're in the bottom" or "we're near the bottom" for some time now. I am a very positive enthusiastic real estate professional, and I always see things getting better.

Some thoughts about this moment in time. We've come down in Oil prices from in the $145 barrel range, down to $126 give or take. The dollar has been very weak. Who knows which way things will go.

This fall Floridians will vote on transferring the school taxes from the property tax bills to a general staewide sales tax increase (1-2%). A local study had our area having about 30-40% of our sales taxes paid by people OUTSIDE our area. If the state as a whole has 30-40% of sales taxes paid by Snowbirds/Europeans/South Americans/etc...this is a great development for Florida.

Our problem, and I believe part of the reason our prices have slid as far as they have, is because at the same time that property values were escalating, we had 2004 (hurricane Charley), and who can forget 2005 (we had our share of storms EXCLUDING Katrina), our local governments saw the rampant prosperity and expanded and "cashed in" too. The result? The perfect storm of real estate.

We are starting to see and hear optimism in our market. Inventory for a search I created to track things in 2007, peaked at 2924 listings (2/25/08) and today (7/23/08) is at 2600 listings (over an 11% reduction). When optimism comes back, the bottom has passed (the worst attitudes are over).

Sarasota is also looking to bring the Boston Red Sox to town for spring training. If that happens, alot of folks in the Northeast that didn't know or care about Sarasota, WILL. This is a GREAT possibility for a brighter future in our area.

THE BOTTOM LINE...If you know someone that wants to buy...the next few months will be the ticket!!

Here we are coming down the home stretch in February. Traffic is heavy, the snowbirds are here, and the fence-sitters are starting to come off the sidelines. Our market is starting to pick back up. I have a networking partner in a real estate attorneys office (the #1 in our area). They had 20% more contracts in December over November, then they had a 33% increase in January over December, now they are 50% over January. What does it all mean?? People are beginning to take action. There are some exceptional bargains to be had, and the next few months should be interesting. What it will take to "declare" the bottom is when the inventory levels drop off and sales continue to increase.

The Florida Budget Reform Committee is meeting this year to consider new changes to the tax code in Florida. One proposal is to replace the School Tax portion of our property taxes with a statewide sales tax (and removing some exceptions to the tax that currently exist). IF THAT HAPPENS, our property tax bills will all go down about 40%. If so...ALL REAL ESTATE will be more affordable in the future.

In a nutshell, all indications are that the next 6 months or so should be a great time to take advantage of our Buyer's market.

We're almost to the end of November and things are beginning to heat up. An article on Thanksgiving day said that the Sarasota/Bradenton MSA (market share area) posted the BEST numbers in Florida. We were down 5% from the 3Q 2006 sales, but the State had an average overall decrease of 29%!

As we near the January 29th primary election, the ballot amendment that "fixes" the problems of the Save our Homes amendment (passed in early 90's), I believe the "window" for opportunity for Buyers is narrowing. I know that there are a lot of foreclosures and short sale properties, BUT, the amendment (if passed) will free up thousands of homeowners that are "locked" into their homes because of the tax benefits that they are enjoying.

The amendment HAS to pass for Florida's economic livelihood to come back in 2008 and beyond. There are many industries that feed off people moving around the state.

If you're an out-of-towner looking into Florida Real Estate...look to Sarasota/Bradenton for future gains and a wonderful lifestyle. Sarasota is known as being the "Cultural Coast" and we have many amenities to keep you busy enjoying our wonderful climate.

Why not buy a "Home for the Holidays"??? You'll be glad you did!

Welcome Blogosphere!! This is my first post to the virtual world...certainly not my last. I have been active in the Greater Sarasota market since 1992. When I got into real estate, we were in a Buyer's market (like today). We didn't bank on listings selling in 6 months either...it was supply and demand. Today, 11/2007, we face an unnatural market. During the 2003-2005 period, Sarasota grew significantly in values. Of course, the stock market correction after 9/11 certainly helped make real estate more REASONABLE as an investment. The problem is that many people got into investing because it SEEMED so easy. Everybody was making money and going great guns to satisfy this demand (unfortunately artificial) to create and build homes.

I know that I'm preaching to the choir for those of you from my area. However, let's take a look at where we are now.

We've seen prices slide down 20-40% across our area from the peak in fall 2005. We've had two hurricane seasons that have been non-events. We've seen the Florida legislature pass tax reform to cap annual tax increases to 4% (adjusted only for ACTUAL population growth), we've just passed an amendment to go on the ballot on 1/29 to make our Homestead savings "portable" and to cap businesses and second homeowners of 10% annual, and we had sweeping legislation to reform our insurance industry (making the long term health of our insurance industry sound).

DEAR Snowbirds, Canadians, Europeans, and everyone ELSE looking for a piece of the Sunshine State....MAKE YOUR MOVE NOW! You have 3 months until Floridians know that they can take their tax savings with them when they move...that WILL make a difference in our market, and it will give optimism to Sellers (not good for you if you're buying).

I believe we are in "the bottom". We will be here for a few months, but then we will stabilize and get back to growth of 3-7% annual starting in 2009.

If Florida was a mutual fund....IT IS TIME TO BUY. That's it for this blog. I hope you liked it. I WILL be back!!