Ed Silva CDPE, GRI, ABR, Real Estate Agent

Our Lady of Lebanon Maronite Catholic Church in Waterbury, Ct is holding it's annual Holiday Food Festival and Christmas Bazaar this weekend, November 21 & 22 at the Cedars Hall, located at the corner of East Mountain Rd and Rt 69.

Hours are:

10:00 AM to 7:00 pm on Sat

10:00 AM to 4:00 PM on Sun

Lunch & Dinner will be available both days consisting of traditional Lebanese delicacies

Lebanese and American Baked Goods

An Everything Chocolate Table set up by Fascia's Chocolates

Raffles and various hand made Christmas Items

For the Children, there will be a visit from Santa Claus

Admission is free

The inventory of distressed properties in the system is going to get higher within the next few months, according to an article I read an article in the paper this past week. Home foreclosure filings slowed in October for a third straight month, but because of the rising unemployment, the next year will see another record year for failing mortgages.

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings, including notices of default and bank repossessions dropped 3% in October from the previous month, but were up 19% from the previous year. Although foreclosure filings are off of the record high hit in July of 2009, with federal efforts intensifying to press lenders to alter terms for struggling borrowers, the chief problem lies with unemployment, which is at a 26 year high.

It is projected that there will be as many as 3.4 million homes that will get a foreclosure notice this year, which is almost double the number from last year. If the unemployment situation doesn't improve, the numbers for 2011 will be similar. Couple this with the next wave of resets to adjustable rate mortgages, and our industry is in for a wild ride.

As buyers are already wary of making a purchase commitment because of the situation in the jobs market, with the volume of distressed properties increasing, it may cause a stall in the system that no amount of stimulus money will be able to move. The next few months will be a barometer to the 2010 market, especially when the retailers disclose their numbers from the holiday buying season.

Today is Wednesday, Tuesday November 17. As I walked out to get my paper, with a temp of 47 greeting a dash of color alongside my driveway was hard not to notice. I have a buffer between the lawn and the driveway just for a break and at the very edge of the buffer I have a row of Meidiland roses, a dozen bushes total.

Not that I am an expert on roses, but a while back a friend had told me about these low growing bushes that start to bud in late summer and will continue to flower through the summer. This one plant has it's clock a little messed up.

We live our lives and do our jobs going by the rules as best we can. Then nature takes a break to give us something to appreciate. This plant should have stopped giving a couple of months ago. We've already had frost and a dash of snow, but at least in one portion of my yard the beauty still survives, even if I don't know what the weekday is!

I saw this quick article in my stack of week old papers that looked interesting and maybe a glimmer of hope for some Fannie Mae mortgage holders.

Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) is implementing the Deed for Lease^TM Program under which qualifying homeowners facing foreclosure will be able to remain in their homes by signing a lease in connection with the voluntary transfer of the property deed back to the lender.

"The Deed for Lease Program provides an additional option for qualifying homeowners who are facing foreclosure and are not eligible for modifications," said Jay Ryan, Vice President of Fannie Mae. "This new program helps eliminate some of the uncertainty of foreclosure, keeps families and tenants in their homes during a transitional period, and helps to stabilize neighborhoods and communities."

The new program is designed for borrowers who do not qualify for or have not been able to sustain other loan-workout solutions, such as a modification. Under Deed for Lease, borrowers transfer their property to the lender by completing a deed in lieu of foreclosure, and then lease back the house at a market rate.

To participate in the program, borrowers must live in the home as their primary residence and must be released from any subordinate liens on the property. Tenants of borrowers in this circumstance may also be eligible for leases under the program. Borrowers or tenants interested in a lease must be able to document that the new market rental rate is no more than 31% of their gross income.

Leases under the new program may be up to 12 months, with the possibility of term renewal or month-to-month extensions after that period. A Deed for Lease property that is subsequently sold includes an assignment of the lease to the buyer.

For additional information about the Deed for Lease Program, including full details on program eligibility, please review the Guide Announcement on https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/servicing/d4l/.

The new and improved Home Buyer Tax credit is upon us, but is it enough to help our economy and stimulate our growth? Only time will tell, and the record doesn't support it. Our record as a nation is one of heavy spending and creating personal debt. We are within the worst recession we've seen in 25 years and the global economy is also faltering. Back when markets where riding high, home prices were setting records, unemployment was low and consumer spending made up two-thirds of our economy.

We as a nation were spending enough to sustain our economy and those economies of foreign nations from which we imported products.

As the recession deepened, there was hope that consumers from other countries would sustain the global economy until the US consumer returned to their spending ways. We underestimated our impact on the global economy. It was often stated that if the American economy had a cold, the world economies were afflicted with the flu.

The American consumer has pulled back substantially on their spending in so drastic a way that the government has stepped in with the stimulus packages to make up for what the American consumer is not spending. While this may have a slight affect for the short haul, the economy will not get back into full swing until consumers see the stability with their jobs and renewed spending which will generate tax revenues, less government spending and hopefully less debt.

What may happen, however, is that the American consumer may start to live more within their means. As we look at our retirement plans that have lost 60% of their value, the concept of building additional debt with credit cards and equity loans, is being abandoned. The new consumer mindset is one of greater frugality, and a tendency to spend wisely. The new consumer will most likely be someone who:

· Sees the value of their home increasing

· Sees the value of their investments increasing

· Sees their income increasing at a rate the outpaces inflation

· Saves their money to buy that flat screen for cash rather than credit

The new consumer is going to be more of a value player, looking for substance and focusing on needs before wants. Before buying new clothes, the consumer may take a harder look at their closets to resurrect some old forgotten fashions. Shopping at the malls will be less spontaneous, and the purchases are more likely to be for items needed to fill a gap in a basic wardrobe.

This year's holiday shopping will be the best barometer for the direction of our economy. The big sales that ran rampant last year may not be there this year, as retailers will have already been more cautious with their inventory purchases sensing the tone of the American consumer. The new consumer is more conscious of spending now than they have been in years. Getting a deal is the trend. It's now fashionable to shop for quantities at the big bulk stores and to brag about the savings. Even consumers who do not need to conserve are trying harder to avoid conspicuous consumptions.

The value proposition is working for large ticket items also. The old style stimulus was about cutting a check or tax refund and hoping it would be spent in a way that benefits the economy. Now it's about rewarding people for purchases that have a direct impact on businesses and jobs. That's the principal behind the current Tax refund for home-buyers, coupled with record low mortgage interest rates as a hope to help the housing market. Cash for Clunkers was another way to try and jump start the economy by offering the consumer an incentive to buy that new, more efficient car. The American consumer may be in hiding, but they will come out for the prospects of a good deal. Of course this still requires the American consumer to not only have the money, but also good credit.

In order to be a consumer, you do have to have money, or access to money via credit to be a consumer. Across the nation, credit scores are low. Individuals, students and small businesses are still having trouble. We as a nation are not a saving culture. We historically have been in the negative values when it comes to saving. Why would it be necessary to save if the value of the house kept increasing and all one had to do was refinance with a low interest equity loan? Why save when the 401(K) or IRA was getting fatter every time you looked at it? Why would you have to save when there were offerings for ‘No money Down', no interest for 2 years, Etc?

As a nation we are starting to spend again. We do need to same to protect us from this type of recession happening again and to save us if it does. But we also need to spend to create jobs and get jobs and pay taxes to pay down our national debt. If we spend, businesses can produce more and hire more people to work at factories and stores.

The economy, and the American consumer who maintained and supported it, have both taken a beating. Hopefully they'll both recover. The new normal will definitely feel different. Instead of buying our goods on credit and paying for them over time, we'll save up and pay cash.