Ed Bisquera

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rose 6.1% in September
2009-11-02 15:00:00.4 GMT Bob Willis

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in September for an eighth straight month as Americans rushed to meet a deadline for a home-buyer tax credit.
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose 6.1 percent after a 6.4 percent gain in August, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington.
Compared with a year earlier, pending sales rose 19.8 percent, without adjusting for seasonal variations.
Many buyers accelerated purchases of new homes to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit before it expires Nov. 30.

Foreclosure-driven price declines and low mortgage rates have also pushed sales up this year. Home sales may cool in coming months unless the credit is extended under a deal worked out by Senate Democrats.
“Home sales continued to show improvement as we see people rush to take advantage of the homebuyer tax credit, although the sustainability of this move is in doubt, and we expect a far slower growth rate going forward,” David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said before the report.
Pending home sales were projected to be unchanged in September from the prior month, according to the median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 2.5 percent to an increase of 5.5 percent. The Realtors group has collected pending sales data since January 2001, and it started publishing the index in March 2005.

Leading Indicator
Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. The Realtors’ existing- home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later.
Sales rose in three of four regions from the prior month.
They increased 10.2 percent in the West, 8.1 percent in the Midwest and 4.9 percent in the South. Sales fell 2 percent in the Northeast.

“As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizeable pent up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. Still, “We’re clearly not out of the woods because an excess of homes remains on the market.”
Sales of existing homes surged a record 9.4 percent in September to a 5.57 million annual rate, a report last month showed. The median price fell at the slowest pace in a year as the number of houses on the market shrank.

Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve has announced it will phase out its purchases of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities by March, signaling borrowing costs for home buyers may rise after the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a record 4.78 percent in April.
Housing-related companies are still recovering from the industry’s worst slump since the Great Depression. USG Corp., North America’s largest maker of gypsum wallboard, posted its eighth straight net loss last quarter as sales dropped 32 percent from the same time last year.
“We’re expecting we’ve hit the bottom in housing,” Chief Executive Officer William Foote said Oct. 21 on a conference call with analysts. He added it would take time for any sustained improvement to “really kick in.”

MORTGAGE RATES NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM FRIDAY

Most rate prices are near unchanged this morning as mortgage bonds start out losing ground, then improve, then fall back a bit after the release of better than expected data. Treasuries are taking a hit while stocks strengthen in yet another reversal. This back and forth movement is a telling sign of the reality of increased volatility as market participants debate the shape and form and timing of recovery, and the impacts of anticipated decreased Fed intervention. Busy news week culminating in the employment report on Friday. This week is likely to be choppy ahead of this heavily weighted data. Be careful and if you have your full documentation and package to your lender, you should lock ahead of any weighty news. Not sure? Contact your lender (or me) and get that package in, if you want to refinance at rates still near or below 5%. It's may be a roller coaster ride for rates, so being prepared to lock is better than trying to do so without your full loan document package in to your lender. Be prepared!


In the news today - Market Headlines for November 2, 2009


Trading on the market remains unchanged for mortgage backed securities, but that could change at midday repricing. Be prepared to lock against choppy news this week.

Data released today for:
Pending Home Sales Month over Month SEP 0.00% change
Pending Home Sales Year over Year
Construction Spending Month over Month - SEP -0.20% change

U.S. September Construction Spending Report
2009-11-02 15:00:01.740 GMT By Alex Tanzi
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The following is the text of the September construction spending report from the U.S. Commerce Department.

SEPTEMBER 2009 CONSTRUCTION AT $940.3 BILLION ANNUAL RATE
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $940.3 billion, 0.8 percent (1.8%)* above the revised August estimate of $933.0 billion. The September figure is 13.0 percent (1.9%) below the September 2008 estimate of $1,081.2 billion.
During the first 9 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $715.2 billion, 12.1 percent (1.3%) below the $813.3 billion for the same period in 2008.

PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $613.9 billion, 0.5 percent (1.1%)* above the revised August estimate of $610.9 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $256.0 billion in September, 3.9 percent (1.3%) above the revised August estimate of $246.4 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $357.9 billion in September, 1.8 percent (1.1%) below the revised August estimate of $364.5 billion.

PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION
In September, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $326.4 billion, 1.3 percent (2.9%)* above the revised August estimate of $322.1 billion.
Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $88.7 billion, 0.1 percent (3.4%)* below the revised August estimate of $88.8 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $85.5 billion, 1.0 percent (7.8%)* above the revised August estimate of $84.6 billion.

Tomorrow news:
Factory Orders for Sep
ABC Consumer Confidence
Total Vehicle Sales
Domestic Vehicle Sales

Image by magia3e via Flickr

Communicate a benefit

Blogs have been associated for a long time now with opinion and personal experience. This is often times the way they are portrayed in the main stream media. This may be due, in part, to the desire on some level to frame blogs as a less authoritative resource.

Make claims and promises

A claim or promise is certainly attractive, but because you are working in social media you must always maintain your trust asset. This, along with your content, is a major component to your traffic engine. This means that whatever your claims are, they should be backed up by content or services that meet those statements. Not doing so eats into your trust asset while doing so contributes to it. Halfway meeting it may maintain your status on this level but it also provides opportunities for competitors to surpass you with superior quality. You are better off being comprehensive and in so doing providing a disincentive for other to try and emulate you. What is more likely in this case is for someone to link to you and add their own commentary or insight on top of yours. What this does is embed you in the community as a person that consistently contributes. From there, you can develop the authority to a) sucessfully recommend affiliate products and services or b) market your own.

Personalize

- Rather than speaking in the general sense as in ‘drive more traffic to a blog’, it is better to phrase it: ‘Drive more traffic to your blog’ This is because many people in smaller niches may be of the opinion that a generalized approach is suitable only for sites with a given minimum traffic requirement. By making things more personal, a reader will start to visualize the proposition as applying to him or her.

Use Keywords

- This aids in being found because each keyword can help your tweet be found via different seach criteria. Many of these words work well together and may be searched as a pair, which will push you further up in the search result. Twitter search is used by many to find information but at the same time it does not have the same volume as Google. What this means is that you are competing with fewer people for top ranking. While this might mean a smaller base of users, it also means a more enthusiastic person because they are using a wider variety of tools to find what they want.

Ask a question

- A question can be one that searches for an answer but what tends to be more effective are questions that pose a controversy or are rhetorical. That latter is particularly effective because it states both the content being delivered as well as the fact that you have a possible solution for them.

What is the FOUR Letter Word Asked About Most Frequently Regarding Social Media, at Social Media Marketing Seminars and Classes throughout the United States? (As originally posted on my blog at blog.pdxloan.com)

It's all revealed at the 1:45 mark in this video blog post by Ed Bisquera, Mortgage Matchmaker & Social Media Guy.

Rates look like they are sitting fairly stable at the 5.375-5.625% range (5.77%-5.99% APR) on a Conventional 30 YR Fixed Loan, NO pts, 20% down (80% Loan To Value), Owner Occupied, with 740 or higher FICO credit score. Forecasts are predicting a small increase in rate, due to typical activity as 2nd quarter earnings are taken to offset any capital gains.

Learn how getting connected and participating in the conversation online where your clients, prospects and audience is, using Social Media tools, is important to your Real Estate business. Produced by Natalie Danielson of Professional Directions/Clockhours.com and taught by Ed Bisquera and Natalie Danielson.

Details at the event signup page here:

READ THE REST OF MY VIDEO BLOG POST HERE

What is the FOUR Letter Word Asked About Most Frequently Regarding Social Media, at Social Media Marketing Seminars and Classes throughout the United States? By Ed Bisquera, Mortgage Broker in Vancouver, Washington and Social Media Instructor.

Yes, the Wizard is in town and is able to grant the ability to buy a home in today's market. Will you be the one to click your heels and utter "There's no place like home??"

While the below post from the LA Times indicates FHA troubled mortgages are on the rise, the fact remains that it's still going down in history as possibly one of THE BEST TIMES to be a first time homebuyer. The cost of housing is depressed, likely to bottom out in the 3rd quarter and that simply means a first time homebuyer will be able to buy more house for less money and on their current income level.

I think we should focus on the fact that with several incentives in place, and lower than 5% interest rates, will really spark a movement for first time homebuyers to come out of the woodwork and start a trend in buying in coming months. One large trend is found in single women are buying homes in record numbers, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors. Seems like there are many "Dorothy's" realize there's no place like home (ownerhsip). :-)

The incentive to buy is further supported by the $8000 Tax Credit that is available to all first time homebuyers (definition: haven't owned a home in the last 3 years) that doesn't have to be paid back and is good for anyone buying between January 1, 2009 and December 1, 2009.

In addition, Fannie Mae's Homepath program (stay tuned for a video on this gem of a program) allows anyone to buy a Fannie Mae-owned home (home that has been foreclosed upon and returned back) with as little as 3% down, no Mortgage Insurance required and NO APPRAISAL REQUIRED as well. This program allows for up to 6% seller concessions on primary, owner occupied purchases.

This program is also WONDERFUL FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS: an investor can buy a Homepath home for as low as 10% down, allows 2% seller concessions, Requires NO MORTGAGE INSURANCE and again NO APPRAISAL. My broker I partner with at the mortgage company has just saved 2 deals alone in the last 3 days because of this program and put another single woman into a house, when the deal was previously thought dead. How's that for the mortgage wizard granting her wish?

If you have any questions, please as always, feel free to contact me on my cell (360) 597-8283, Twitter, or send me a message through here.

Best wishes today!

Ed Bisquera "The Mortgage Matchmaker" & Web 2.0 Evangelist :-)

P.S. I just posted 12 listings on Craigslist this week and using tried and true techniques and existing programs marketed with a twist. I was able to get 3 buyer leads in less than 24 hours, and convert one into a buyer with an 4.375% (4.6% APR) FHA mortgage to this first time homebuyer. Message me and I'll tell Realtors and homebuyers how this works IN ANY AREA OF THE COUNTRY. Ed B

== Number of Fed-backed troubled mortgages rises ==

The mortgage woes of FHA borrowers are gaining ground. From an Associated Press brief at latimes.com:

The government says the number of troubled loans backed by the federal mortgage insurance program is on the rise as economic troubles mount.

However, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan is telling Senate lawmakers Thursday that the Federal Housing Administration is "unlikely to face the catastrophic losses borne in the subprime sector." He says in prepared remarks that that is partly because it didn't back loans for more expensive properties that have plummeted in value.

As of February, 7.2 percent of loans backed by the FHA were either 90 days overdue or in foreclosure, up from 5.8 percent last August.

The FHA is the main source of home loans to borrowers with poor credit and low down payments after the subprime lending market's collapse.

I'd be curious to know what percentage will qualify as a "catastrophic." The trend line sure doesn't look good.

-- Lauren Beale

Thoughts? Comments?

Photo: Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan, left, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair gather at Dobson High School in Mesa, Ariz., for President Obama's recent unveiling of his plan for preventing home foreclosures. Credit: Gerald Herbert / Associated Press