Too Bad - So Sad - rates are not likely to continue hitting the bottom numbers for much longer. That's right - the Economy is suffereing, yet some think that rates could be headed HIGHER! How can that be?
The New York Times Magazine has an article that will be out on January 20, 2008 by ROGER LOWENSTEIN. The article speaks to the tough spot that Mr. Bernanke and the Fed is in.It also speaks to a larger issue, as it discusses forecasting and how Bernanke has been able to use the information available to create a path for the future. In other words they don't think Bernanke has a clue!
"The housing meltdown has defied the forecasting abilities of the Fed's 220 crack economists, computers and all. As late as May, Bernanke gave a speech in which he opined that "the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited." Really?
It has proved to be anything but. The country's banks have admitted to mortgage-related losses of almost $100 billion, and the full extent of the damage, as homeowners continue to default, is not known. As the crisis unfolded last summer and fall, Bernanke repeatedly faced a devil's choice. He could cut interest rates and risk inflation and a run on the dollar and, at the same time, be seen as bailing out people and institutions who made bad bets on subprime mortgages. Or he could do nothing and run the risk that the troubles in housing would leach into the general economy, causing people to lose jobs and possibly a recession"
SO WHAT"S A FED TO DO?? Former Secretary Paul Volker seems to saying in recent uncharachteristic comments that he feels the Fed is Not In Control. If this is the case, and even if it's not, the Economy is at least teetering between Recession and Inflation. I think the pundits have it wrong - rates are going to continue to slide lower!
What does all of this mean to you?? 30 year fixed rate mortgages are below 5.25% as I write this. (okay there are a few strings - you have to have verifiable income, and good credit, and some money in the transaction would be nice - APR 5.625) If you are considering refinancing from an ARM, now is a good time to do that. If you are considering purchasing a home, and payments are a major part of your decision process - now is a good time for that too!
We would love to help you with the next mortgage transaction!
Thought this was interesting... spoke with a client yesterday who said she wasnted to SELL - but SUZY said DON'T! Tried to explain to the seller that we don't live in one of "those" areas...
For over 15 years, I've considered the First Friday of every month a special day... Labor Report Day! (I even went to Washington and WATCHED THEM deliver the numbers one time! It's sad - I have no life.)
ANYWAY - so now the THURSDAY BEFORE THE First Friday is a BIG DAY!! The ADP Employment Report for December showed that the private sector created 40,000 new jobs. This is down significantly from November's revised number of 173,000 jobs. Even after factoring in approximately 25,000 new government jobs created, the ADP Report signals that tomorrow's Jobs Report could come in at 65,000. This is essentially in line with leading economist estimates of 70,000 new jobs created in December.
The number that could move the Bond market is the hourly earnings number. Last month's increase of 0.5% sent Bonds reeling, as the fear of inflation seemed very real. We feel that this trend may continue (after all - orange juice is headed higher and the commodities markets don't like that at all!).
SO DO YOU LOCK OR DO YOU FLOAT - THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION...
Although the overall Labor Report tomorrow may not be very strong, Bond prices have rapidly reached great heights in the last week. Being greedy, Traders may look for an excuse to sell and take profits. ESPECIALLY IF THE CAUCUS IN IOWA SHOWS A "NEW YORK PRESIDENTIAL" LEAD. (either way I think it would make everybody nervous!)
According to Barry,"the safe play from a risk vs reward standpoint is to lock ahead of tomorrow's number. " That is certainly the conservative play... but retailers will be announcing the actual December sales numbers starting on the 10th of January. Once those numbers come in - we could see more pressure on Bonds. I think we are in a sideways to drifting lower market for the next few weeks.
If you closed on your mortgage loan with National Mortgage in May of 2005 or May of 2003 - you are probably going to get a call from me in the next week.
It's time to consider refinancing your home, because your mortgage will reset in the next 60 days. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?? When your mortgage resets it means that the payment is going to change. If you have a 4.5 percent interest rate (and many of the 3 and 5 year arms had those start rates) the mortgage holder will take your Index and add the Margin and then calculate the new payment.
Many of the loans we made have 2 percent caps on the payment adjustment, meaning your 4.5 percent loan will likely go to 6.5 percent for the next year. PLEASE CHECK because some of the loans we made through Wells Fargo have 5/2/5 caps. THIS MEANS that your First Year Adjustment could go up as much as 5 percent!!
Most of the loans we made have LIBOR as the base Index. Unfortunately, it has not gone down in recent months. THIRTY YEAR fixed rates, however, are near 5.5 percent! All of the bad news for the economy is working in YOUR FAVOR!
The other thing to consider is legislation pending in the Senate. The new Predatory Lending Legislation has a provision that PROHIBITS no cost refinances...
So - when I call be ready to talk about what your new payment is going to be and let's see if it's time to refinance!
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I see myself differently than most loan officers in the Cary/Raleigh market. As a rare Cary native, I see myself as an expert on the area, on mortgage industry changes and factors that affect rates!
Who We Are
I am privileged to work with my husband, Steve, in an area we both love. When my family moved to Cary in1968 the population was around 7600. Today, we are the seventh largest metropolitan area in the state with a population of over 125,000! Steve and I met at Cary High School, and we remember when Kildaire Farm Road had a couple of FARMS on it and the Cary Parkway was just a good idea.
I'm second generation "mortgage." As I grew up in a home where everyone spoke about the economy and the mortgage and real estate business... I'm an Economic News Junkie and often write about events moving mortgage interest rates. It's important to me that folks understand that I'm not writing about the "gloom" and "ruin" of the mortgage industry - I'm simply looking for lower mortgage interest rates. Typically, bad news in the economy spells good news for mortgage interest rates.
Steve and I were named one of the top Origination Teams in the State (by the NC Association of Mortgage Professionals) and Mortgage Originators Magazine. As entrepreneurs, one of our companies received the coveted Triangle Fast 50 Awards by our Business Journal three years in a row.
Our Commitment
We've been involved in Mortgage Lending since the early 1980's. There is a vision that drives us to do what we do. Simply put, we want to help you create the financial strategy that allows you to live life to the fullest. That requires that together we establish goals, define priorities and determine what's most important to you.
On any given hour of a day, mortgage lending experiences subtle shifts that can create huge forces of change for our customers. We are dedicated to a life of continually educating ourselves in the broad areas of economics, politics and financial planning... and of course we stay on top of the Mortgage Industry News too!
Our Family, Our Community
As active members of the Cary Chamber of Commerce, the YMCA and our church, we have become friends and mentors to local businesses and charities. We've worked hard to raise money and awareness for the "We Build People Campaign" at the YMCA and the American Cancer Society "Relay for Life."
Our unique family dynamic includes a middle school daughter, a son who is at Western Carolina University, a small Japanese Chin (named Lucky) .
I'VE BEEN HACKED!
hi. my name is Savannah Leigh Thorne. i am Steve and Eleanor's daughter, and i feel very strongly that my mom hasn't truly explained our family. so here it is. we are a simi-normal family getting by comfortably in soccer mom territory, also known as the suburbs(not my first choice. but its ok, i still have plenty of fun). we love to do allot of things as a family. my dad and I like to go to the YMCA (conveniently located up the street from us) and play plenty of sports like tennis and swimming and on the occasion even jogging(once again, not my first choice). My older brother is one of my heros, we are 12 years apart and have way too much fun together. my mother often looks at us with a very confused face and asks us why are acting like brothers and sisters.. of course we all start laughing and say "i guess someone didn't get the memo!". speaking of my mom. something you might not know about her is that she is possibly the most creative person i have ever met. she is constantly finding new ways to make something in (or on) our house look amazing. i like to think that's where i get my creativeness from. So anyway. the last thing you should know about our happy little family is that we are very musically inclined. My dad and i will stay up all night playing guitar and piano and singing, of course my mom and brother will join in on the singing too, but its what we do. we may be embarrassing, and we do have our "un-happy" moments. but for the most part were just like ever other typically untypical family. :)
LOVE,
SAVANNAH LEIGH THORNE
Our Company
First Financial Services is a NC owned mortgage banker / broker. We are authorized to handle FHA, NC Housing, VA, USDA... and represent an array of conforming, conventional lenders. We have offices in NC, SC, Virginia and DC. Our team is built upon the same foundation we built our business relationships on. We constantly strive to build a team that embraces and adheres to the values we consider most important... as one of our clients you can be assured that everyone on our team to look out for your best interests!
In most cases we are able to allow our clients to lock into an interest rate and float down if the market improves. We educate our customers on market conditions, and the events that might change those conditions, as we help find the BEST solutions for your situtaton!
We are fortunate to have expertise in helping folks make minor changes to their credit files - as those minor changes to improve a score can make thousands of dollars worth of difference over the life of the loan.
For a more information about Cary check this out or CLICK HERE!
We are helping host RE BARCAMP for the Raleigh Area on November 6 from 10 until 4. This is an interactive meeting aimed at Raising The Bar on Social Media Marketing in the Real Estate World! Follow us #REBCRDU
If you are an agent, or a lender looking for an interesting way to get more people interacting with you, click here.
In addition to the information we post on Activerain, you might find what you are looking for at another of our websites! For instance, we have hundreds of properties (each with their own websites) at STEVE THORNE ONLINE. We also post maps, and qualifying information about ALL Government Loans at NC FHA EXPERT. We've met dozens of people this year who are struggling with ways to improve their credit - and maximize their FICO so that they can get the best rates. Because of this, we created a site dedicated to the question, 'HOW TO IMPROVE MY SCORE." We also have local housing trend information, quirky insights, and networking information about this area at this site. Triangle Area Recognition: Recent "Best Of" Awards
Men's Health
Magazine ranked Raleigh the most politically engaged city in America.
The rankings were based on percentages of active registered voters, ballots counted, percentage of income donated in the current presidential election, campaign spending, votes cast in the 2008 primary and votes cast in recent elections for governor and senate - Men's Health magazine, September 2008
Milken Institute: A Best Performing City
The Raleigh-Cary metropolitan area is ranked number two in the nation's "Top 100Best Performing Cities" in an annual economic performance index released by Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate partners. The annual study ranks
metropolitan areas by how well they are creating and sustaining jobs and Economic growth. The Raleigh-Cary area rose from number 10 in 2007 - September 2008
MSNBC: America's Best City
MSNBC.com ranks Raleigh America's best city! "Raleigh, N.C., it seems, is the best place to be in the U.S. right now. It ranks No. 1 in Forbes' 2008 list and was also top in 2007 - consistent placement among these lists is truly rare. It ranks No. 2 in Kiplinger's list this year. The city is also Fortune Small Business magazine's No. 20 place to live and launch." -- June 2008
Kiplinger's: A Top Urban Area
Kiplinger's Personal Finance names the Triangle the second best urban area in the U.S. It highlighted undeniable date: population growth since 2000 of 19.9 percent; percentage of the work force in the creative class, 36.1 percent; cost of living index, 99 with 100 being the national average; median household income of $56,150; and income growth of 10.3 percent since 200. This ranking dubbed Houston the best in America and Omaha, Neb., the third best. -- July 2008
Forbes: Recession-Proof Local Economy
Forbes magazine ranks the Triangle's economy as fifth on a list of 10 recession-proof local economies. -- May 2008
Best Place For Young Adults
A study conducted by American City Business Journals ranked the Raleigh-Durham
market as the best in the nation for young adults, defined as ages 20 to 34. The
study examined 10 factors, including growth rates of employment and per capita
income, unemployment, percentage of people holding bachelor's degrees and
median rent in the nation's 67 largest metropolitan areas. Austin was ranked
second, Washington, D.C., third. Charlotte placed seventh. -- May 2008
Fortune: A Best Place To Live And Launch
Raleigh's growing tech industry, support of entrepreneurs and the $2.5 billion
renaissance downtown place the Capital City at No. 20 in Fortune's "Best Places to
Live and Launch." -- May 2008
Rachel Ray: Best CityFor Singles
Raleigh is named The Best American City for Singles" in Every Day with Rachel Ray
magazine. - - January 2008
"If we study the lives of great men and women carefully and unemotionally we find that, invariably, greatness was developed, tested and revealed through the darker periods of their lives. One of the largest tributaries of the river of greatness is always the stream of adversity."
Cavett Robert
"This day is all that is good and fair. It is too dear, with its hopes and invitations, to waste a moment on the yesterdays."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
"Any mans life will be filled with constant and unexpected encouragement if he makes up his mind to do his level best each day." Booker T. Washington
"It is impossible to get the measure of what an individual can accomplish, unless the responsibility is placed on him."
Alfred Sloan
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"Of course there is no formula for success except perhaps an unconditional acceptance of life and what it brings."
Arthur Rubinstein
"I can accept failure. Everyone fails at something. But, I can't accept not trying."
Michael Jordan
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