Robert Amato

If you are looking for a Mortgage Professional who will give you the type of service that you deserve, contact Bob Amato (NMLS # 8632) and Empire Home Mortgage Inc. (NMLS # 44882). We answer our phones seven days a week until 9PM. Put us to the test! Our toll free number is (866) 742-5227.

Visit our website, www.empirehomemortgageinc.com . There you can get answers to all of your financing questions, view rates and search for foreclosed properties.

If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.

This week bring us the release of only three monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to those three reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates. The financial markets are closed today due to the New Year’s Day holiday.

The first report is the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. That indicates manufacturing sector strength rather than contraction. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 53.4 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment strengthened from November's 52.7. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards economic strength.

Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed's thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won't affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

The Commerce Department will post November's Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 2.1% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December's employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and earnings would be ideal news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise from November’s unemployment rate of 8.6%, 150,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday's Employment report, but look for tomorrow and Wednesday to be active due to the economic data and FOMC minutes scheduled. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher on the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.

If you are looking for a Mortgage Professional who will give you the type of service that you deserve, contact Bob Amato (NMLS # 8632) and Empire Home Mortgage Inc. (NMLS # 44882). We answer our phones seven days a week until 9PM. Put us to the test! Our toll free number is (866) 742-5227.

Visit our website, www.empirehomemortgageinc.com . There you can get answers to all of your financing questions, view rates and search for foreclosed properties.

If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.

The Labor Department said early this morning that 381,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, a noticeable increase from the previous week’s revised total of 364,000. This means that more people filed for unemployment benefits last week than the previous week, hinting at employment sector weakness. That makes the data favorable to the bond market and mortgage rates because it points towards weaker economic conditions. However, since the data tracks only a single week’s worth of new claims, it often takes a large variance from forecasts it to influence mortgage rates. This morning’s difference was fairly large, but the early stock strength has taken interest away from the data and bonds.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. It is the last trading day of the year, but it will likely be one of the lightest trading days also with many market participants home for the long weekend holiday. You may find the same with the mortgage industry also. I am expecting stock direction to drive bond trading, but I would be surprised to see a significant move from either. This will likely translate into a slight change in tomorrow’s mortgage rates at the most.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow, but the stock markets are scheduled to be open for a full day of trading. All banks and major U.S. financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. Everything will reopen Tuesday morning for regular hours.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.

If you are looking for a Mortgage Professional who will give you the type of service that you deserve, contact Bob Amato (NMLS # 8632) and Empire Home Mortgage Inc. (NMLS # 44882). We answer our phones seven days a week until 9PM. Put us to the test! Our toll free number is (866) 742-5227.

Visit our website, www.empirehomemortgageinc.com . There you can get answers to all of your financing questions, view rates and search for foreclosed properties.

If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.

The Conference Board posted this week’s only monthly economic data late this morning with the release of December’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). They announced a much stronger than expected reading of 64.5, meaning that consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. It was also the second consecutive month of a large jump in confidence. This makes the data bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because rising consumer confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending, effectively fueling economic growth.

Since long term securities such as mortgage related bonds are more attractive to investors in weaker economic conditions, today’s results are considered negative for mortgage pricing. With little economic data being posted this week, the Labor Department's weekly unemployment numbers may help influence the markets and mortgage rates more than usual. They are expected to show Thursday that 368,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be an increase from the previous week. We usually don't worry too much about this data because it tracks only a single week's worth of new claims, but we should probably pay a little more attention to this particular release as it could impact mortgage rates slightly.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET Friday, but the stock markets are scheduled to be open for a full day of trading. All banks and major U.S. financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. Everything will reopen Tuesday morning for regular hours.

Overall, today’s economic release was the key event of the week, but we could see volatility any day. The thinnest trading will probably take place the latter part of the week as traders head home for the holiday. Despite last week's shortened schedule, we saw plenty of movement in mortgage rates. This week likely will be the same as investors look to make year end adjustments to their portfolios.

Accordingly, I recommend keeping in contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.

If you are looking for a Mortgage Professional who will give you the type of service that you deserve, contact Bob Amato (NMLS # 8632) and Empire Home Mortgage Inc. (NMLS # 44882). We answer our phones seven days a week until 9PM. Put us to the test! Our toll free number is (866) 742-5227.

Visit our website, www.empirehomemortgageinc.com . There you can get answers to all of your financing questions, view rates and search for foreclosed properties.

If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.

This week brings us the release of only one piece of monthly economic data that is considered important to mortgage rates. It is a true holiday shortened week with the financial markets closed today for observance of Christmas and the bond market closing early Friday in recognition of the New Year’s Day holiday next weekend. However, some traders will be working a short week, especially as it progresses, so we can expect to see some very light trading. That could mean little if nothing surprises the markets, but a significant piece of news or unexpected results from the little data being posted can cause a larger reaction than normal due to fewer traders working.

The week's only and the year's final important release comes late this morning when the Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a fairly important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in confidence from November's reading of 56.0. Analysts are expecting tomorrow's release to show a reading of 58.0, meaning consumers felt better about their own financial situation than they did in November. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

With little economic data being posted this week, the Labor Department's weekly unemployment numbers may help influence the markets and mortgage rates more than usual. They are expected to show Thursday that 368,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be an increase from the previous week. We usually don't worry too much about this data because it tracks only a single week's worth of new claims, but we should probably pay a little more attention to this particular release as it could impact mortgage rates slightly.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET Friday, but the stock markets are scheduled to be open for a full day of trading. All banks and major U.S. financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. Everything will reopen next Tuesday morning for regular hours.** Overall, today will be the most important day of the week, but we may see some volatility any day. The thinnest trading will probably take place the latter part of the week as traders head home for the holiday. Despite last week's shortened schedule, we saw plenty of movement in mortgage rates. This week likely will be the same as investors look to make year-end adjustments to their portfolios. Accordingly, I recommend keeping in contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.

If you are looking for a Mortgage Professional who will give you the type of service that you deserve, contact Bob Amato (NMLS # 8632) and Empire Home Mortgage Inc. (NMLS # 44882). We answer our phones seven days a week until 9PM. Put us to the test! Our toll free number is (866) 742-5227.

Visit our website, www.empirehomemortgageinc.com . There you can get answers to all of your financing questions, view rates and search for foreclosed properties.

If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.

This holiday shortened trading week brings us the release of eight monthly or quarterly economic reports in addition to two semi relevant Treasury auctions. None of the releases are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, but several of them do have the potential to cause some movement in rates. The more important news comes later in the week. Therefore, we may see more movement in mortgage pricing as the week progresses.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release tomorrow. This means we can look towards the stock markets for guidance on bond and mortgage rate direction. The Europe debt crisis will likely be in the headlines this week as leaders move to avoid downgrades by credit rating agencies that would be equivalent to adding gasoline to the fire. If the actions taken overseas are strong enough to calm investor fears here, stocks may bode well for the week, making it difficult for bonds to rally and push mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, if it becomes evident that the downgrades to their debt are unavoidable, fears about the impact they would have on the global economy will probably fuel stock selling and bond buying here. The latter would be good news for mortgage rates.** Tuesday's only data is November's Housing Starts, but it is the week's least important data. I don't see it causing much movement in mortgage rates unless it shows a huge variance from expectations. It is expected to show little change in construction starts of new homes, hinting at a flat housing sector last month. Generally speaking, an increase in new starts would be bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but unless there is a significant surprise it will likely have little impact on Tuesday's mortgage rates.

November's Existing Home Sales figures will be posted late Wednesday morning. This release will come from the National Association of Realtors while its sister release, Friday's New Home Sales data, is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither is considered to be of high importance. And both of the reports are expected to show increases in sales, indicating housing sector growth. Weaker than expected readings would be considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates because they hint at a still weakening housing market. But unless the actual readings vary greatly from forecasts, the results will probably have little or no impact on mortgage rates.

Thursday brings us the release of three reports, with the first being the final revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). I don't think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month's first revision showed that the economy expanded at a 2.0% annual pace during the quarter and this month's revision is expected to show no change. A revision higher than the 2.0% rate that is expected would be considered bad news for bonds. But since this data is quite aged at this point, I don't think it will have much of an impact on mortgage rates Thursday.

The second report of the day comes just before 10:00 AM ET when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small upward revision from the preliminary reading of 67.7. This is fairly important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. A reading above the 68.0 that is forecasted would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Conference Board will release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November. This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a small increase in activity, meaning that it predicts a slowly expanding economy over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.3% increase from October's reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. If it shows a smaller increase, the bond market may move slightly higher, leading to a minor improvement in rates.

The final two economic reports of the week come Friday morning along with November’s New Home sales. The first is November's Personal Income and Outlays data. It will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a noticeable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in income and a 0.3% increase in spending. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly Friday morning.

November's Durable Goods Orders is the last report, also being posted early Friday morning. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show a 2.0% rise in new orders. A smaller increase in orders would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a larger jump in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early Friday morning. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so it is not unusual to see large headline numbers on this report.

This week also has Treasury auctions scheduled the first three days. The two that are most likely to influence mortgage rates are Tuesday's 5 year and Wednesday's 7 year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Wednesday's auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor demand may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates. Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets and mortgage rates, especially if we get some surprising results from the week's data or news about Europe’s financial crisis. Despite the holiday season, we need to keep a cautious approach toward rates because we are likely to see very thin trading (light volume) as a result of many traders keeping short hours or home for the holiday altogether. This means that firms that trade bonds will likely be keeping only a skeleton staff the latter part of the week and raises the possibility of a stronger reaction to surprises in the economic data than we normally would see.

The least important day for mortgage rates will likely be tomorrow unless something drastic happens overnight. We will probably see the most movement in rates Friday, but Thursday’s economic data can also move mortgage pricing noticeably. With the Christmas holiday next weekend, it is being observed next Monday. The bond market will close early this Friday afternoon ahead of the holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. Accordingly, proceed cautiously this week if still floating an interest rate and closing by the end of the year.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are place with third party providers.