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Valerie Attaya

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FHA Loans

04-28-10
Valerie Attaya

FHA is still allowing 6% seller contributions! Take advantage before it changes this summer to 3%!

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Market Report

04-25-10
Valerie Attaya

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. The first portion of the week had very little data. Leading economic indictors came in stronger than expected which really didn't help us. Strong stocks pressured mortgage bonds a bit. Producer prices rose more than expected but the core rate was tame. New home sales shocked the market with a 26.9% increase. This was the largest increase in 47 years and not bond friendly. Rates rose by about 3/8 of a discount point for the week.

The Fed meeting Wednesday will be the most important event this week. The Treasury auctions will also likely overshadow a lot of the other releases as traders digest record debt that continues to hit the market. Friday morning may be volatile as the employment cost index and gross domestic product data are very important releases.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis
Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, April 27,
10:00 am, et

54.0

 Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, April 27,
1:15 pm, et

None

 Important. $44 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, April 28,
1:15 pm, et

None

 Important. $42 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, April 28,
2:15 pm, et

No change

 Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, April 29,
8:30 am, et

455k

 Moderately important. An indication of employment. A larger figure may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction

Thursday, April 29,
1:15 pm, et

 None Important. $32 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q1 Advance GDP

Friday, April 30,
8:30 am, et

3.5%

 Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q1 Employment Cost Index

Friday, April 30,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.4%

 Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, April 30,
10:00 am, et

 72 Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month. The report details the levels of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy. The data is derived from a survey of 5,000 households nationwide. The survey polls consumer opinions on current business conditions, their jobs, their incomes, and their future spending plans.

The consumer confidence index is significant in that it provides a precursor into consumers' willingness to spend in the months ahead. However, many analysts point out that willingness to spend does not always convert to actual expenditures.

This week's release will be eagerly anticipated. Look for any variation from estimates to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. Signs of eroding consumer confidence could lead to improvements in mortgage interest rates. However, stronger than expected figures could spike rates higher.

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Market Report

04-16-10
Valerie Attaya

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices rose last week, which helped mortgage interest rates improve. Oil prices continued to fall off the beginning of the week. Fortunately mortgage bonds rallied nicely amid the tame inflation environment. Unfortunately that trend reversed mid week as oil prices spiked tied to a report which indicated supplies declines. Stocks also surged higher as earnings reports generally pleased investors. The DOW easily eclipsed the 11,000 mark.

Despite this, rates still managed to improve by about 1/4 of a discount point for the week.

Leading economic indicators data Monday will set the tone for trading this week. The producer inflation data will be the most important release. If inflation pressures emerge mortgage interest rates may be pressured higher.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis
Leading Economic Indicators

Monday, April 19,
10:00 am, et

Up 1.0%

 Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, April 22,
8:30 am, et

465K

 Important. An indication of employment. An increase in jobless claims may bring lower rates.
Producer Price Index

Thursday, April 22,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.5%,
Core up 0.1%

 Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Decreases may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales

Thursday, April 22,
10:00 am, et

5.3M

 Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders

Friday, April 23,
8:30 am, et

 Unchanged Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales

Friday, April 23,
10:00 am, et

 Up 1.9% Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders are generally believed to be a precursor of activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing must have an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to be scaled back; otherwise the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.

Unfortunately, durable goods orders data has many drawbacks. The first problem with the orders data is that they are extremely volatile. The volatility of the data usually is attributed to the civilian aircraft and defense components of the figure. For example, if Boeing has a big order for one of its jumbo jets, the civilian aircraft category can change by $3-4 billion. The same scenario is evident when an aircraft carrier is ordered, surges in the defense category result. The second problem with the data is that orders are continuously being revised. There are many times in the past when the advance report on durables showed an increase while a revision a week later showed a decrease. The revised data is found in the report on manufacturing orders, shipments, and inventories.

Since the data is very volatile and difficult to forecast, there is quite often a huge disparity between the actual release and the initial projections. If the durable goods report is much stronger than expected, look for mortgage interest rates to push higher. If favorable, the data may help interest rates remain steady or even push lower.
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MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-April 19th, 2010
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Market Comment

04-09-10
Valerie Attaya

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices rose last week, which helped mortgage interest rates improve slightly. The first portion of the week was generally bond friendly as the Fed minutes showed real concern about the economy's ability to recover with so many job losses. Stocks and bonds generally traded inversely as the DOW tested the 11,000 mark a few times during the week in up and down trading. Unfortunately a large portion of the improvements was erased as oil prices traded around $87/barrel and inflation fears emerged. Despite this, rates still managed to improve by about 1/4 of a discount point for the week.

The consumer price index Wednesday will be the most important release this week. The abundance of important economic releases has the potential to result in a very volatile week for mortgage interest rates. If the data shows signs of weakness we could see rates improve.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis
Trade Data

Tuesday, April 13,
8:30 am, et

$38 billion

 Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index

Wednesday, April 14,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.1%,
Core up 0.1%

 Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales

Wednesday, April 14,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.2%

 Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories

Wednesday, April 14,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.1%

 Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"

Wednesday, April 14,
2:00 pm, et

None

 Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production

Thursday, April 15,
9:15 am, et

 Up 0.2% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization

Thursday, April 15,
9:15 am, et

72.5%

 Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey

Thursday, April 15,
10:00 am, et

18.1

 Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts

Friday, April 16,
8:30 am, et

 Down 2.1% Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decreases may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, April 16,
10:00 am, et

 72.9 Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Oil

Inflation fears tied to rising energy prices have reemerged. At one point oil prices rose near $87/barrel last week causing many analysts to revise forecasts. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both predict oil prices will rise above $100/barrel next year. The concern is that rising energy costs could permeate through the markets and damage economies around the globe that are struggling to regain footing. Inflation, real or perceived, generally erodes the value of fixed income securities causing prices to fall and rates to rise. This could pressure mortgage interest rates higher further stifling a recovery in the US housing sector.

Valerie Attaya

conroemortgageloans.com

lakeconroehomeloans.com
MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-April 12th, 2010
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Montgomery County Fair & Rodeo

04-07-10
Valerie Attaya

Check out the schedule for the upcoming Montgomery County Fair & Rodeo


CS - Country Store
HSC - Horseshoe Club in Pavilion
EB - Exhibition Building
LSA - Livestock Show Arena
EB/SEA - Exhibition Building and Special Events Area
LB - Livestock Barn
ARENA

Elvis Birthday Party
January 16th

MCFA Cards for Kids
February 6th

MCFA Golf Tournament
March 26th

MCFA Scholarship Trailride
March 26th - 28th

Friday, April 9th

10:00 a.m.- Special Education Judging, EB/SEA
10:00 - 2:00 p.m. - Special Education-Carnival Attractions & Lunch
10:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. - Various Entertainment featured in EA
6:30 p.m. - Rodeo Youth Events, ARENA
7:30 p.m. - Rodeo, ARENA
2010 Fair Queen Candidates, ARENA
Calf Scramble, ARENA

Saturday, April 10th

10:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. - Country Store Opens, CS
10:00 a.m. - Market Rabbit Judging - Sale Meeting - Market Rabbits, LSA
11:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m. - Jr. Home Economics, Fine Arts, Horticulture, Photography, Needlecraft and Handicraft Preliminary Judging, EB
12:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. - Various Entertainment featured in EB/SEA and on grounds
2:00 p.m. - Poultry Judging - Sale Meeting - Broilers & Turkeys, LSA
2:00 p.m. - 2010 Fair Queen Candidates Public Speaking, EB/SEA
4:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. - Jr. Home Economics, Fine Arts, Horticulture, Photography, Needlecraft and Handicraft
Final Judging, EB
6:30 p.m. - Rodeo Youth Events, ARENA
7:30 p.m. - Rodeo, ARENA
Crowning of 2010 Fair Queen, ARENA
Calf Scramble , ARENA

Sunday, April 11th

8:00 a.m. - Last Year's Scramble Calves Judging, LSA
9:00 a.m. - Breeding Beef Judging, LSA
10:00 a.m. - Church Service, ARENA
10:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
12:30 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. - Various Entertainment featured in EB/SEA and on grounds
1:30 p.m. - Ranch Rodeo, ARENA
2:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. - Adult Division Home Economics, Needlecraft, Handicraft, Photography & Fine Arts Judging, EB/SEA
4:00 p.m. - Market Lamb Judging - Sale
Meeting - Market Lambs, LSA
5:00 p.m. - Adult Division Home Economics, Needlecraft, Handicraft, Photography & Fine Arts Award Presentations, EB/SEA

Monday, April 12th
KIDS DAY

9:00 a.m.- Yearling, Filly and Gelding Judging & Sale Meeting, ARENA
11:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
11:00 a.m. - Market Barrow Judging - Sale Meeting - Market Barrows, LSA
5:00 p.m.- Recognition of Award Winners in Special Education, EB/SEA
6:00 p.m. - Jr. Non-Livestock Auction Buyer's Party - Invitation Only, HSC
7:00 p.m. - JUNIOR NON-LIVESTOCK AUCTION, EB/SEA

Tuesday, April 13th
KIDS DAY
SENIOR CITIZENS DAY

9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. - 65 & Older Division Check-in, Conv Cntr
9:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m. - Senior Citizens Day, Conv Cntr
10:00 a.m. - Market Goat Judging, LSA
10:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
4:00 p.m. - Market Steer Judging - Sale Meeting - Market
Steers, LSA
6:00 p.m. - Pet Parade, EB/SEA

Wednesday, April 14th

9:00 a.m. - Livestock Judging Contest
10:00 a.m. - Check Out for all Animals (Except Sale Animals)
4:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
5:00 p.m. - Buyer's Party, Food & Entertainment-Invitation Only, EB/SEA
6:30 p.m. - JUNIOR LIVESTOCK AUCTION, EB/SEA
After Auction - Entertainment in Horseshoe Club, HSC

Thursday, April 15th

11:00 a.m.- Replacement Heifer Show - Sale Meeting, LSA
2:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
5:00 p.m. - Scramble Banquet, EB
7:00 p.m. - Replacement Heifer Sale, LSA
7:00 p.m. - 11:00 p.m. - TEEN DANCE, HSC

Friday, April 16th

7:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.- Barbecue Cookoff Teams Begin Moving In
2:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m.- Country Store Open, CS
4:00 p.m. - 12:00 Midnight - Barbecue Cookoff Fun & Entertainment

Saturday, April 17th

8:00 a.m. - 1:00 a.m. - Barbecue Cookoff Fun & Entertainment
8:30 a.m. - Horseshoe Pitching Contest, Presentation of Awards after Competition, ARENA
10:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. - Country Store Open, CS
5:00 p.m.- Barbecue Cookoff Contest - Presentation of Awards

Sunday, April 18th

7:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. - Barbecue Cookoff Teams Move out
12:00 Noon - 2:00 p.m. - Country Store - Check out items, CS
12:00 Noon - 12:00 Midnight - El Dia de la Familia Hispana
Bands scheduled to perform:

Los Yonis
Juan Acuna
Los Principales

Also appearing:
Folklorico Dancers

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