Why are foreclosures up?
Jay Brinkmann, MBAs Chief Economist, says it's jobs. Despite the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance continues. Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies and foreclosures because mortgages are paid with paychecks, not percentage point increases in GDP. Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans and increasing the rate of new foreclosures from 1.07% to 1.42%. Brinkmann says it's prime and FHA mortgages that are taking the worst beating. Prime fixed-rate loans continue to represent the largest share of foreclosures started and the biggest driver of the increase in foreclosures. 33% of foreclosures started in the third quarter were on prime fixed-rate and loans and those loans were 44% of the quarterly increase in foreclosures. The foreclosure numbers for prime fixed-rate loans wi ll get worse because those loans represented 54% of the quarterly increase in loans 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure. The performance of prime adjustable rate loans, which include pay-option ARMs in the MBA survey, continue to deteriorate with the foreclosure rate on those loans for the first time exceeding the rate for subprime fixed-rate loans. In contrast, both subprime fixed-rate and subprime adjustable rate loans saw decreases in foreclosures."
Foreclosures hit record highs
According to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64% of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 108 basis points from 8.86% in the second quarter of 2009 to 9.94% this quarter. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47%, an increase of 17 basis points from the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the hi
ghest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.42%, up six basis points from last quarter and up 35 basis points from one year ago. The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due, loans in foreclosure, and foreclosures started all set new record highs. The percentage of loans 30 days past due is still below the record set in the second quarter of 1985.
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