James Lupori, Associate Broker Keller Williams Realty - 206.713.2102

Even though I am not a religious person, I had a chill of excitement run up my spine when I read the following on Politico.com:

“Though there is no constitutional requirement for the use of a Bible
during the swearing-in, Presidents have traditionally used Bibles for
the ceremony, choosing a volume with personal or historical
significance. President-elect Obama will be the first President sworn
in using the Lincoln Bible since its initial use in 1861.” (read the full article by clicking here)

Then this thought went through my mind: There is nothing more profoundly significant and powerful than the symbolism of Barack Obama, our first mixed-race President, putting his hand on the bible that Abraham Lincoln used when being sworn in as President of the United States of America. What could be more fitting? It will be a moment in history that proves we, the People of the United States, have come a long, long way. President Lincoln is truly “Speaking to the Better Angles of Our Nature” even today….in 2009.

BUT THEN………..I went down to read some of the comments on the blog post and the first commentator wrote the following: ICONIC HUBRIS. (the commentator identifies him/herself as a Republican). I have to say, my brief fantasy of our country coming together in these difficult times evaporated in an instant. It occurred to me that America has perpetually wrestled with powerful demons: racism, a starkly divided two-party political system, economic disparity, displacing native peoples, fighting one of the most brutal civil wars in history and many others. I had thought, perhaps naively, that most of us would be proud of our new President and that some wounds might be healed.

So, to purge the bitter taste from my mouth I found a copy of the Gettysburg Address and printed here to remind myself never to forget why history is important and why so many of us should go back and revisit it. It’s still as inspiring as ever:

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here qave their lives that the nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow, this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us, the living, rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought so nobly advanced. It is for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us, that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion; that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain; that this nation, under God shall have a new birth of freedom; and that the government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.

If you are inspired to ponder the resonance of Abraham Lincoln, just click on the picture below which will link you to the NPR website of the American Icons Series. Here you will find several eloquent audio pieces well worth listening to. Enjoy

Brad Listi, a contributing writer to the Huffington Post asks a clever question today: What Do We Call the current Financial Crisis? After all, most historical events don't get named until after they happen: The World Wars, the Great Depression. He's actually come up with some good names for what's going on today:

The Not-So-Great Depression, The Greed Depression, Americorpse, The Boomer Bust, and there are others! This is good stuff. But I believe there is a deeper question to ask. It will determine if we come out of this "depression." What Are People For?

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In the First stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted it misses progress by failing in constructiveness and persistence. This is the condition of children and barbarians, in which instinct has learned nothing from experience.”

George Santayana, The Live of Reason, Volume 1, 1905″

More grim news filled the headlines this last week. The most disturbing revelations had to do with the loss of 2.6 million American jobs in 2008. According to most analysts, this is the worst drop since 1945. Here in the Northwest, Boeing Company announced that it will eliminate 4500 local positions in the Seattle Area. Closer to home, I’ve reported (on this blog) that the housing market in my town, Kenmore, has been in decline and that many homeowners are defaulting on their mortgages. Closer still: several of my colleagues are in the process of losing their homes or filing for bankruptcy.

Indeed, America has faced difficulty in the past, but we are in the midst of a financial/cultural shift that will, I believe, determine the strength and survival of the American way of life. It’s clear that we need to transform our fundamental way of conducting business, the way we regard each other and the way we view our position in the world. If we do not ask the right questions or ignore the facts we are destined for failure. Will history repeat itself?

WENDELL BERRY - WHAT ARE PEOPLE FOR?

Wendell Berry is arguably one of the most profound and prolific American writers about the marginalization of American farm life, local sustainability and preservation of THE LAND itself. In his brief 3-page essay from 1985 entitled “What Are People For?” he captures brilliantly the ethos of that time in American history when a way of life, the American small farmer, was being replaced by computerization, mechanization and automation. It’s interesting to note that the 1980’s were a time when corporate America was given license to shed employees and become more efficient in the name of “free market capitalism.” As Berry writes:

“Today, with hundreds of farm families losing their farms every week, the economists are still saying, as they have said all along, that these people deserve to fail, that they have failed because they are the ‘least efficient producers,’ and that the rest of us are better off for their failure.”

Lately, I have noticed a lot of finger-pointing about who is to blame for the financial/housing crisis that is causing job loss, home foreclosures and broken families. It’s human nature to place blame and seek justice. Sure, I get that. What so disturbs me is our tendency, as Americans, to condemn our neighbors for not taking “personal responsibility” for their actions. I believe we have all been hypnotized by a belief that the free market is the answer, that serving corporate interests is the goal. I also believe we all need to take time and reflect on what Wendell Berry so elegantly states:

“The great question that hovers over this issue, one that we have dealt with mainly by indifference, is the question of what are people for. Is their greatest dignity in unemployment? Is the obsolescence of human beings our social goal?”

I sincerely hope that the policy changes and stimulus packages of the next administration are EMBRACED by Americans. It’s going to take everyone, working together for a common cause to transform our economy and put Americans back to work. So, the next time you find yourself judging someone who is blue-collar or your neighbor who is having financial problems, ask yourself if we are all merely functionaries designed for the purposes of lining the pockets of our corporate superiors or are we something else. I think you know the answer!

Kenmore maintained a large inventory of single family homes in 2008. On any give day there were over 200 homes for sale; however, this changed in November and December. Today the inventory has dropped quite a bit as there are 149 active listings:

SNAPSHOT OF ACTIVE LISTINGS TODAY

The majority of homes are between $350,000 and $550,000. The average days-on-market are a little over 3 months. I’ve noticed that a lot of resale homes have dropped out of the game since November. We may see them return as Spring approaches (and the sellers sober-up about pricing). Even so, 44% of listings have experienced price reductions, some being significant. It’s also interesting to note that almost 35% of the homes for sale today are new construction.

PENDING SALES - LARGE % OF SHORT SALES

The good news is that houses are selling in Kenmore. The bad news is that 58% of the pending sales today are SHORT SALES. For those of you unfamiliar with the process of short selling a home, I highly recommend you read: How To Do a Shortsale to better understand the process. The Wikipedia definition is helpful:

In real estate, a short sale is a sale of real estate in which the proceeds from the sale fall short of the balance owed on a loan secured by the property sold. In a short sale, the bank or mortgage lender agrees to discount a loan balance due to an economic or financial hardship on the part of the mortgagor.

We are living in some extremely challenging times. If you, members of your family or your friends feel that they are having trouble making their mortgage payments, it is imperative that you/they seek the advice of an attorney to determine if a short sale is your best course of action. There are some serious consequences as a result of selling your home short, most of which are negative: Tax exposure, Credit Damage, Legal Problems and a myriad of other issues. Although one might be tempted to choose this course, there may be better alternatives. I highly recommend you contact the law offices of Dale J. Galvin of Galvin Realty Law Group with your questions. Click on the picture below for more information about Dale and his services:

Only time will tell if Barack Obama’s new administration will have a positive influence on the real estate market. Many of the economists I’ve been listening to (cranky folk they are!) feel that we’re in for a tough 2009. I’d like to make this point in spite of all the bad news: If you are ready to buy a home, you need to do your homework. Assemble a team of professionals (e.g. mortgage lender, real estate agent, accountant and attorney) and proceed with confidence!

Utterly Confused Courtsey of inju

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service released it’s monthly press release for December 2008. The results from 2008 were as one would expect - heart breaking. It was not hard for market observers to guess that the sour financial markets and the insane weather this last month basically knocked-out home sales with a big left hook in the last round of 2008. Ouch! Bloody nose!

I’m going to stick with basic home sale statistics for Kenmore in this post. In the next several days there is going to be a lot of year-end data and analysis that I will share with you. For now, let’s keep it simple and local. Just click on the graphs for a large, more detailed image:

UNITS SOLD

UNITS SOLD, 4-YEAR TREND

Numbers: 2005 - 42 sold, 2006 - 24 sold, 2007 - 19, 2008 - 13

There has been a steady decline in home sales here in Kenmore since 2005. What’s interesting is how precipitous the decline was between 2005 and 2006. The change was not as significant comparing this year to last, a sign that the market was already weakening two years ago.

AVERAGE PRICE

AVERAGE PRICE - 4 YEAR TREND

PRICES: 2005 - $388,000, 2006 - 470,000, 2007 - 430,000, 2008 - 438,000

The media has been quick to point out that prices in the Seattle area have fallen to 2006 levels. Kenmore seems to be experiencing more of a flattening-out since the beginning of 2007. Home owners in Kenmore haven’t been immune from a stagnant increase in equity. It may be some time before we make up the losses in the last three years.

DAYS-ON-MARKET

DAYS-ON-MARKET - 4 YEAR TREND

DAYS TO SELL - 2005 - 48 DAYS, 2006 - 70, 2007 - 62, 2008 - 103

A lot of agents are reporting how difficult it has been to sell homes in the current market. As you can see, it’s taking over 100 days on average to sell a home. If you’re going to enter the market in the current environment, it is critical that you have your house priced aggressively and ensure that it is properly presented (dressed for success). Even though interest rates have dropped to historic lows, buyers are still sitting on the sidelines in the hope that prices will fall further.

If you are considering selling or purchasing a home, please give me an opportunity to consult with you to explore your options. Even though there are a lot of “experts” saying that it’s an ideal time to buy a house, you owe it to yourself and your family to work with an agent familiar with the market.

Statistics Often Lie courtesy of mac steve

The Real Estate gods must have been connecting the agent subconscious yesterday. As I was writing about the influence of technology on the real estate industry, Ardell DellaLoggia of Rain City Guide was writing an extremely thought provoking post entitled: Open Letter to NWMLS and Local Agents. Ardell asks us to consider the functionality of the MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE which is the hallmark database used by real estate agents. In short, she believes the system is broken and it needs repair. It no longer adequately addresses the needs of the consumer or, for that matter the agents.

I agree. I believe that the age of agent-controlled multiple listing services are coming to an end, much like the Alaskan Way Viaduct here in Seattle. They are functional, utilitarian (if you have access), ugly and fatally flawed by an outside source (e.g. The 2000 Nisqually Earthquake). Those of you who have driven over the Viaduct know what I’m talking about: it certainly gets you where you need to go, but access to it is limited, it’s claustrophobic and your choices of exits are limited. One feels trapped. Knowing it could fall down at any moment isn’t comforting either! There is hope on the way and one of the cavalry is Estately.com.

Estately.com very well may be the future of consumer real estate services in terms of property research and statistics and agent referrals. It’s not yet ready to take on the multiple listing services; however, there are a lot of very smart people behind the scenes at Estately who may very well break the information log jam created by the real estate insiders.

Galen Ward, the CEO and co-founder of Estately deserves the credit for putting together a wonderfully functional system at Estately. As a Realtor who focuses-in on Kenmore, WA I was impressed with the ability of Estately to provide excellent real estate data for Kenmore. Additionally, if one wishes to work with a neighborhood specialist, Estately provides referral services.

As I mentioned above, large structures like the Alaskan Way Viaduct don’t last forever. Sooner or later an earthquake or other huge event breaks them. In the coming years, I believe the real estate industry is going to be broken apart and re-tooled by new technology and new business models that allow consumers a much wider range of options. This isn’t news, but we are beginning to see evolutionary services such as Estately more and more. Change is inevitable and I’m looking forward to what’s coming