James Lupori, Associate Broker Keller Williams Realty - 206.713.2102

I’ve broken out the 2008 Kenmore, WA home sale statistics into some interesting categories so you can get a sense of how the housing market has performed this year. I realize we don’t have the year-end numbers yet, but a number of my friends and neighbors have been asking me if the market is as bad as the media says it is. The following charts might put some things in perspective. You can see larger versions of the charts if you click on them:

SALES BY VOLUME - MEANING THE TOTAL VALUE OF GOODS SOLD

The charts below show a steady drop in the total sales revenue generated in the last several years. Between 2006 and 2007 there was a 2.5% change in sales revenue; however, we saw a -48% drop between 2007 and 2008.

2008

2006-2008

HOME PRICES

This is probably the category of statistics that’s the most difficult to interpret. If you look at the three-year chart it’s a crazy zig-zag of prices. Basically, the largest drop in price actually happened in 2006-2007. We’ve basically seen a leveling-off in prices in 2008. This is due, in large part, to the small number of sales.

2008

2006-2008

UNITS SOLD

These numbers speak for themselves. We started out 2008 with about 50% fewer sales and this trend continued throughout the whole year.

2008

UNITS SOLD 2006-2008

DAYS ON MARKET

The number of days it took to sell a home in Kenmore increased for most of the year. Things have leveled-off the last several months.

2008

DAYS ON MARKET 2006-2008

Once again, the home sale numbers for Kenmore are sobering. This year I observed a reluctance of sellers to accept the deteriorating market prices. As a result, through most of the first half of the year, homes were languishing on the market. It was only after the real bad financial news hit in August-September that prices started to drop or sellers took their homes off the market. In the last several months the number of active single-family-homes dropped from over 200 closer to 170. Not a great drop, but it was an adjustment that took far to long to occur.

All-in-all, the Kenmore housing market reflects what’s going on in many cities in the Northwest. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in 2009. Unless the Credit markets thaw, I fear more of the same.

THE FIVE STAGES OF GRIEF

DENIAL, ANGER, BARGAINING, DEPRESSION, ACCEPTANCE

A little over a year ago I attended a “team meeting” at the Keller Williams Realty office where I hung my license. I remember the day clearly because there were a lot of angry and frustrated agents who were having trouble selling houses. What, they wondered, was wrong? At that time I think we all had a sense that something had shifted out there in the world, we just did not know exactly what it was. Our broker and one of our more “market savvy” colleagues had some unsettling news: Experts were saying that serious problems existed with the sub-prime markets, that something was terribly wrong with mortgage backed securities, and economists had concerns the housing bubble was going to burst………

Needless to say, four of the five stages of grief were expressed in that one meeting. There were a lot of angry and scared agents who simply could not believe the world was going to change. Now that 2008 is quickly coming to an end, it seems that there are a lot of other things to grieve about:

• Revelations that those in charge of the financial markets have engaged in de facto fraud for many years
• Confessions by elected officials at the highest levels of government that they have deceived the American people regarding torture, wire-tapping, war and a myriad of other things
• The realization that literally trillions of dollars have evaporated from our 401k’s, pension funds, stock portfolios, etc.
• Facing the ugly fact that some of our most cherished and powerful institutions have squandered wealth by overpaying executives, neglecting research and development and focusing on the short-term
• Watching corporate America as for hundreds of billions of dollars in aid from the federal government
• Witnessing a tangible lowering of our standard of living, stagnating wages and the inevitable “class warfare” and finger pointing that results when people feel betrayed
• And let’s not forget the shrinking equity in our homes and our inability to sell them or worse yet, the huge number of foreclosures and bankruptcies on the horizon

Not long ago, I finally realized that almost every real estate agent I know, including myself, is grieving about our industry. Oh, there are some Realtors who maintain the optimistic position that “things will get better.” Today, I even read a blog post entitled “Grow Where You are Planted” intended, I’m sure, to help us all get through these tough times.

I hate to say it, but this sort of thinking has limited value when one confronts the brutal facts: housing prices in our area continue to drop; lower mortgage interest rates will not affect home sales significantly; credit remains virtually frozen and there are a huge number of real estate agents who are leaving the business. In today’s Seattle PI article entitled “Property prices to rebound in ‘009, some brokers say,” some of these brutal facts are confirmed. The optimists believe we will see some recovery in the housing markets by the Spring of 2009; however, the vast majority of experts believe the Northwest is in for a long, slow recovery.

I would like my readers to know that I am still an active, practicing Realtor/real estate agent. Just for good measure you should know that I’m also an Associate Broker (wow!!!). I have been writing Kenmore Undressed.com since April and, during that time, I have become far more observant of the local housing statistics and I’m more involved in my community than ever before. I consider myself to be a true expert in residential real estate in Kenmore, WA. Let me also say that I’M SOBER ABOUT THE CURRENT REAL ESTATE MARKET. I make it my job to know what’s real and what’s not. I think I’ve crossed over from a sense of DEPRESSION and I’ve ACCEPTED the way things are. The world has become a far more complicated place these days, but I’m ready to face the challenges. I wish the same for you.

Five Stages Photo courtesy of

COCOMARIPOSA - http://www.flickr.com/photos/8463160@N08/