James Lupori, Associate Broker Keller Williams Realty - 206.713.2102

I don't know about you but, as an American, I've been doing a lot of soul-searching these days. I'm floored by the sheer number of scandals, deceits, rumors, betrayals and contradictions in the world. It's mind-boggling. It's made me a bit testy and cynical and impatient. Recently, here on AR, I had a verbal confrontation with another agent regarding unflattering comments he made about the President Elect. I was offended by his lack of candor and his "speaking-in-code" rhetoric. I felt justified in calling this gentleman out for engaging in what I felt was "intellectual dishonesty." Of course, discussions of this type are rarely productive. Everyone ends up even more assured of his/her convictions than at the beginning of the argument. Ultimately, reasonable people can agree to disagree. Unfortunately, as adults it's hard for us to reconcile some things. That's just the way it is. "I'm right and you're wrong!"

All this brings me to the topic of this post: During an ABC News interview this Monday, Dick Cheney admitted that he approved extreme interrogation methods (torture). Asked whether he still believes it was appropriate to use the water-boarding method on terrorism suspects, Cheney said: "I do."

Well, my friends, I'm not going to use any veiled, liberal code to describe Mr. Cheney. Simply put, he's a monster. Plain and simple. Go ahead and disagree with me. I don't care.

What's even more disturbing is the fact that there has been more press regarding Jennifer Aniston's "nude" poses for GQ magazine. So I ask you, what do you spend your time wondering about?

YOU ARE AN AMERICAN CITIZEN AND YOU HAVE A CHOICE BETWEEN TWO NEWS STORIES:

FIRST - JENNIFER ANISTON POSES NUDE FOR GQ MAGAZINE

Joking about the relentless media coverage of herself, ex-husband Brad Pitt and Pitt's partner Angelina Jolie, Aniston tells the magazine: "The funny thing is that people don't realize we all go away to the Hamptons on the weekends." (Quote from the AP)

OR......................................................................................

DICK CHENEY ADMITS TO APPROVING EXTREME INTERROGATION METHODS

"I was aware of the program, certainly, and involved in helping get the process cleared."

The November 2008 real estate sales statistics for Kenmore were to be expected given the chaos and uncertainty gripping the overall economy. As I’ve suggested in earlier posts, our financial system is paralyzed without two of the most important ingredients for success: CONFIDENCE & COMPETENCE. Until buyers and sellers feel that the market makes sense, it will remain extremely difficult to bring them to the table. Until lending institutions begin to loosen underwriting standards, even qualified buyers will hesitate to make offers. It’s ironic, because home prices are attractive right now. Here are the numbers:

KING COUNTY SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

Click on the picture below to see the details:

Sales of single family homes were down -58% in Kenmore from a year ago (8 in 2007 vs 19 last year). Year to date sales are down -44%. Prices have dropped 9% since the beginning of 2008.

I wish I had better news regarding real estate sales in our community. It’s been a pretty tough year.

People laugh when I say that blogging makes you smarter. "You can't be serious," they say, "isn't every Tom, Dick and Mary out there writing whatever comes into their minds and then blabbing it out to the world? Actually, this is a great question because it raises important issues such as:

• What about fact-checking: How does the reader know that the blogger is really researching a subject?
• What about journalistic integrity: Are bloggers utilizing legitimate sources and cross-checking them?
• What about plain old truth-telling? How can I know if a blogger is sincere?

Let me be clear: Whole books have been written about the problems with blogging. Probably one of the most thoughtful is Andrew Keen's "The Cult of the Amateur." His premise is that the internet is literally killing our culture! He calls into question the user-generated free content of amateurs which he claims is destroying our valued cultural institutions such as newspapers, magazines, movies, books, etc..

Well, it hasn't taken long for part of his theory to come true. Many of the largest national newspapers are having serious financial problems due to the increasing number of on-line news services, blogs and websites. Recently, the Christian Science Monitor announced that it is going to cease publishing a daily paper in favor of its on-line self. Whether we like it or not, the internet has forever changed the face of news-gathering. It's where most people will get their information.

I do believe that Mr. Keen is wrong about the value of blogging content. Let me give you an example of how I put together a blog post:

Pick the Subject

As a realtor I have a keen interest in my local market place. My goal in blogging is to provide my readers with informative and accurate information regarding home sales and values here in Kenmore, WA. Today, I wanted to address a post on a popular and provocative blog called Seattlebubble.com. In a recent post entitled "J. Lennox Scott & Dick Beeson Predictions vs. Reality the author basically "called out" the two regional industry gurus buy highlighting numerous incorrect predictions they've made about the market over the last year. Basically, he's saying that they are dead-wrong. If you read the blog commentary, it's obvious that the author, "The Tim," hit a real raw nerve with real estate agents and consumers.

Fact Gathering

The author of Seattlebubble.com cites a number of reputiable sources for his statistics and quotes. Moreover, I have access to numerous sources of my own. In my last post, my sources back up the notion that we should all be a little skeptical of "predictions" regarding real estate. The experts have been dead wrong recently. Let me also direct you to an incredibly sobering article in U.S.A. Today that puts the current housing market in perspective.

Writing the Blog Post

After doing the research and thinking about the best way to present the material, I then write the article. In order to help my readers understand the subject, I try to hyperlink to as many other reputiable sources as possible. The fun part for us bloggers is that we can often be a conduit for other important writers to educate us about the world. We don't have to make things up. We have a world full of vetted, respected experts at our fingertips. In a nutshell: Blogging makes us smarter.

On final thing: I highly recommend you read this report.

The end of 2008 is turning out to be one of the most challenging real estate markets in decades. A huge number of difficult factors have converged in a sort of "perfect storm" which has utterly destroyed confidence in the market. Even after the Fed provided capital to help stabilize the financial markets, consumers aren't out there buying up homes, even though prices have softened. To illustrate how slow things are, please turn to the following charts which represent "absorption rates" for November:

PUGET SOUND ABSORPTION RATES

Absorption rates are based on the ratio between active listings and the net number of homes that are in the sale process. According to the charts above, only 8.2% of the listed homes were absorbed in November.

KING COUNTY ABSORPTION RATES

King County fared slightly better with 10.6% of the homes were absorbed in November.

SNOHOMISH COUNTY ABSORPTION RATES

Snohomish County absorbed 8.8% of the active inventory in November.

I'd like to say something light and positive at this point; however, I'm a big proponent of facing the brutal facts of the current reality: the market has gone into a coma for the time being. Also, home prices have fallen this year which is discouraging. I would also like to say that homes ARE selling in spite of all the challenges. About the only wise thing to do for now is continue to monitor the housing market for signs of improvement. Now, more than ever, make sure you're working with a real estate professional when searching for a home.

Picture by inju

As we near the end of 2007, real estate "experts" with some crazy predictions are sprouting up like so many weeds in the garden. Perhaps some of the newly unemployed are spending more time in front of the computer, perusing the statistics and attempting to draw conclusions from all the grim news coming out of the press. The truth is, the REAL experts don't seem to have any better grasp of reality than the amateurs. Take the most recent Northwest Multiple Listing Service press release dated Dec. 4th:

• Prices down
• Pending sales down
• Inventory dropped 1.8% (still the largest inventory in years)
• Rising foreclosures and bankruptcies

What conclusions do the MLS experts draw from these facts? Housing activity reflects "microclimates!" This is just a fancy way of saying that real estate is local which everyone knows. The report then goes on to quote Pat Grimm, Dick Beeson and J. Lennox Scott (owners of well-known local brokerages) who all basically avoid saying that the market will fall further in the coming months. About the only good news is the recent talk about lowering mortgage interest rates. According to the report, this may stimulate first time home buyers to enter the market.

The fact is, all of the economic data points to a gloomy Northwest economy in 2009. Certainly, it's not the end of the world, but the real estate industry is suffering from a serious hangover. I hope sobriety comes soon...but I'm not holding my breath.