Through April, sales of homes and condos in Laguna Beach are down 50% from the same time in 2007. And 2007 was a down year! In comparison to the height of the market in 2005, sales are at one-third the level today that they were then. Part of the rationale is that potential home buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to hit bottom. My best estimate is that the market will level off in 2009. The other primary reason for the decline in the number of homes sold is that it is very difficult to get a jumbo (over $729,500) loan today. As a capitalist, I am a firm believer that the credit market will straighten itself out. There is too much $$$ at stake (and to be made). Somebody or some company will figure it out and begin feeling comfortable loaning money again. When that happens, the market should begin to bounce back. Let's just hope it is at a nice slow sustainable growth rate and not the rocket ship market we saw in the early 2000's. I'll take a 5% growth rate every year versus the 20% increases we saw a few years ago.
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