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Gary Bolen (CRS) Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information

The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA Home, Then and Now.

It's better for Buyers in South Lake Tahoe than one might think.Does one get More for their Money Now than Before, and if so, How Much?

This is a study to determine if one can get more home for their money in South Lake Tahoe today than before. If so, the next important question is how much more, and is it quantifiable?

To best do this we’ll focus on the two most objective factors available to look at the value of a home, which is its size and price per square foot. Lets also look at other more subjective factors such as condition, age and the availability of a newer home.


One gets a lot more house for the money in South Lake Tahoe these days.Since we’ll be looking at market-wide data, “location” will be part of the mix, but lets not highlight that specifically here.

(We will prepare a custom, extensive look at the market, that very much includes location, for you anytime. This is our “value workup", which is used to best advise a listing price for Sellers, or to best assure that a buyer dos not pay too much. example here)

A Bridge over Disconnected Waters?
As many of you may know, we continually update South Lake Tahoe market conditions via reports that track the median sold price, and any changes thereunto (here).

What sparked this new study are a few recent comments coming from these median sold price reports (here). What these sentiments reveal to us is there is a disconnect with some potential buyers between what the market is, and what they expect it to be.

To goal of this study then is to see if we can bridge that gap between buyers expectations, much of which is fueled by national real estate news, and current market reality, which is determined by tracking the median sold price.

What We Know So Far:
At present we have seen a 15% decline in the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe since our market highs in 2005/2006 (here).

We also know that a third of this decline is due to foreclosed home sales in 2008 alone (here).

South Lake Tahoe home values have declined more than one might think.The New Study:
Normally we look at price segments in $50,000 increments. This is how we look at and break down South Lake Tahoe housing demand, or absorption rates, over time (here).

For this study, we think looking at market segments in $100,000 increments will be sufficient to determine how much more house one can get for their money these days.

The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe House Then and Now:
Please look at the chart below, which details the average characteristics of a home purchased from $300,000 to $399,000 since 2003.

Also note the last column in the chart, with its numbers in red . These are the same, comparative characteristics for houses currently listed. It is from this chart that the following is revealed:

  • On average, the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house available right now is listed 10% lower than it was in 2006.
  • On average it takes 91% longer to sell a $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house than it did in 2005.
  • On average the square foot value of a the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 19.3% lower than it was in 2005.
  • The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 27% larger than it was in 2005.
  • On average the age of the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house is about the same today as it has been since 2004. It is some 6 years newer than the average age of a house sold in 2006 and 2007.

What it Means:The Bottom Line
Our assumptions are correct: the $300,000 house in South Lake Tahoe, CA is more than 25% larger, and priced nearly 20% lower in square foot value than homes sold at our market high.

Coupled with the15% decline in the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, this represents at least another 20% decline in value as found in the average home listed in the $300.000 price range today.

We use the term “at least” above because the homes currently listed in South Lake Tahoe in any price range, including this one, will be sold at a further reduction in both current listed price and, correspondingly, price per square foot.

It appears that much, if not most, of the additional declines in home values as predicted in recent national real estate news reports are already factored into the home values of current South Lake Tahoe listings. (Rather than being found exclusively in the median sold price, it’s hiding in plain sight!)

South Lake Tahoe home sales in the $300,000's since 2003.

Marbles, Houses, Buyer Fear, Information and South Lake Tahoe

Maybe not with marbles, but with houses, one can get more for your money today than before.The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA House of today was a $550,000 house 5-years ago.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We did this one before too, and its the basis for a study we refern many of our buyer prospects to when explaining market reality these days. We hope you enjoy.

There are two South Lake Tahoe brothers, both in elementary school, one an egghead type, the other a marble champion. The Champ goes into the Land of Marbles toy store.

In marble land he stares at his favorite shooters, not just any shooters, but red jasper mineral shooters, the fancy, costly, devastating shooter that’s harder than glass. Anxious, coveting, the Champ has wanted a set of these orbital gems since he can remember.

Today though, something is new. Only available in sets of four, the price of red mineral jaspers has changed. Instead of $8.99 each, they are now $7.65 each, and the set of 4 now includes one extra red mineral jasper treasure for free. Wow, the champ muses, “the price is cheaper... and I can get more at the same time.”


The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house is 29% larger than it was in 2005.That night he tells his brother about the red jasper sale. “Lemme see them,” the egghead urges. “Didn’t buy them,” says the Champ. “Have you lost all of your marbles?”, his brother asks. The Champ answers, “Just waiting for the price of red jaspers to go lower.”

The Champ explains that The National Marble News says both marble demand and marble prices are dropping nationwide, that some say overall marbles may drop another 20%. His brother retorts, “Yeah, but that’s for all marbles, not red mineral jaspers!

The egghead answers that red jaspers at $7.65 each is a price reduction of 15%, and that the other free marble added to the package actually constitutes a total reduction of 32%. “You’ve got to take getting more for the same price into consideration too.” he adds, “there’s a big difference between rare, coveted shooters and all of the rest of the marbles everywhere else.”

The Champ concludes, “I’m going back to buy them tomorrow.”

The next day the Champ goes back to the Land of Marbles. And there, disappointed, he finds that all of the red jasper mineral marbles he has always wanted are gone.

What Does This Have to do with the Value of a South Lake Tahoe house?

We of course realize there is a difference between marbles and houses, but the point of this children’s tale very much symbolizes the South Lake Tahoe real estate market today. (see chart below)

The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe of today sold for $550,000 5 years ago.There are gems to be had in the market now, and both their price is lower on average, and one can get more house at the same price than before. In fact, the $400,000 house in South Lake Tahoe today sold for almost $550,000 in 2005/2006. (Compare chart below with that of the following post about the $500,000 South Lake Tahoe house.)

We realize we’re looking at averages here, and a particular house should be analyzed in exact detail to best understand its opportunity, but one thing for sure is it is a better market condition for Buyers in South Lake Tahoe than one has seen in 5 years.

This comes from a new, extensive study we’re doing that was somewhat sparked by a few recent comments from potential buyers that are at odds between what the market is, and what they expect it to be.

Please review the entire background for this study at the top of this article about the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house here.

The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe House Then and Now:
Please look at the chart below, which details the average characteristics of a home purchased from $400,000 to $499,000 since 2003.

Also note the last column in the chart, with its numbers in red. These are the same characteristics for houses currently listed. It is from this chart that comes the following:

  • On average, the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house available right now was originally listed 12% higher than it was in 2004. (In other words the $400,000 house was orignally listed as a $500,000 house.)
  • On average it took 88% longer to sell a $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house in 2008 than it did in 2005.
  • On average the square foot value of a $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 21.4% lower than it was in 2005.
  • The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 29% larger than it was in 2005.
  • On average the age of the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house is about the same today as it has been since 2004.


What it Means: The Bottom Line
It's a better market for buyers in South Lake Tahoe than in the last 5-years.Our assumptions are correct, one does get more “marbles” today that before. The $400,000 house in South Lake Tahoe, CA today is more than 25% larger, and priced more than 20% lower in square foot value than homes sold in 2005/2006.

Coupled with the current 15% decline in the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, this represents at least another 20% decline in value as found in the average home listed in the $400,000 price range today.

We use the term “at least” above because the homes currently listed in South Lake Tahoe in any price range, including this one, will be sold at a further reduction in both current listed price and, correspondingly, price per square foot.

It appears that much, if not most, of the additional declines in home values as predicted in recent national real estate news reports are already factored into the home values of current South Lake Tahoe listings. (Rather than being found exclusively in the median sold price, it’s hiding in plain sight!)

Sales statistics for the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house since 2003.

The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA Home, Then and Now.

It's better for Buyers in South Lake Tahoe than one might think.Does one get More for their Money Now than Before, and if so, How Much?

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) This is the beginning of a study we did not long ago. We refer to it to our buyers frequently, and it pretty much documented our suspicions about the effect of foreclosures on the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Ok, here goes:

This is a study to determine if one can get more home for their money in South Lake Tahoe today than before. If so, the next important question is how much more, and is it quantifiable?

To best do this we’ll focus on the two most objective factors available to look at the value of a home, which is its size and price per square foot. Lets also look at other more subjective factors such as condition, age and the availability of a newer home.

Since we’ll be looking at market-wide data, “location” will be part of the mix, but lets not highlight that specifically here.

(We will prepare a custom, extensive look at the market, that very much includes location, for you anytime. This is our “value workup", which is used to best advise a listing price for Sellers, or to best assure that a buyer dos not pay too much. example here)

One gets a lot more house for the money in South Lake Tahoe these days.A Bridge over Disconnected Waters?
As many of you may know, we continually update South Lake Tahoe market conditions via reports that track the median sold price, and any changes thereunto (here).

What sparked this new study are a few recent comments coming from these median sold price reports (here). What these sentiments reveal to us is there is a disconnect with some potential buyers between what the market is, and what they expect it to be.

To goal of this study then is to see if we can bridge that gap between buyers expectations, much of which is fueled by national real estate news, and current market reality, which is determined by tracking the median sold price.

What We Know So Far:
At present we have seen a 15% decline in the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe since our market highs in 2005/2006 (here).

We also know that a third of this decline is due to foreclosed home sales in 2008 alone (here).

South Lake Tahoe home values have declined more than one might think.The New Study:
Normally we look at price segments in $50,000 increments. This is how we look at and break down South Lake Tahoe housing demand, or absorption rates, over time (here).

For this study, we think looking at market segments in $100,000 increments will be sufficient to determine how much more house one can get for their money these days.

The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe House Then and Now:
Please look at the chart below, which details the average characteristics of a home purchased from $300,000 to $399,000 since 2003.

Also note the last column in the chart, with its numbers in red . These are the same, comparative characteristics for houses currently listed. It is from this chart that the following is revealed:

  • On average, the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house available right now is listed 10% lower than it was in 2006.
  • On average it takes 91% longer to sell a $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house than it did in 2005.
  • On average the square foot value of a the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 19.3% lower than it was in 2005.
  • The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 27% larger than it was in 2005.
  • On average the age of the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house is about the same today as it has been since 2004. It is some 6 years newer than the average age of a house sold in 2006 and 2007.

What it Means:The Bottom Line
Our assumptions are correct: the $300,000 house in South Lake Tahoe, CA is more than 25% larger, and priced nearly 20% lower in square foot value than homes sold at our market high.

Coupled with the15% decline in the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, this represents at least another 20% decline in value as found in the average home listed in the $300.000 price range today.

We use the term “at least” above because the homes currently listed in South Lake Tahoe in any price range, including this one, will be sold at a further reduction in both current listed price and, correspondingly, price per square foot.

It appears that much, if not most, of the additional declines in home values as predicted in recent national real estate news reports are already factored into the home values of current South Lake Tahoe listings. (Rather than being found exclusively in the median sold price, it’s hiding in plain sight!)

South Lake Tahoe home sales in the $300,000's since 2003.

Considering the Declaration of Independence... and the genius who wrote it!

The Declaration of IndependenceThoughts about the writing of our Declaration of Independence.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We did this 2 years ago, and try as I might today, could not improve on it much. We liked this one. And we hope you are amid a splendid 4th.)

He wrote it in 17 days. No electricity, no internet for research, no software, no cut, copy or paste. Only pen and ink, and candlelight to write at night. He was only 33 years old. And he did it alone, in two rented rooms of an otherwise occupied house... in the unairconditioned weather of mid summertime. And yes, it was on a deadline. There was a sense of urgency at that time, as we all remember.

How does one prepare to write The Declaration of Independence? I've often thought about what it must have been like for Thomas Jefferson to do that. What pressure did he feel? What was his writing plan? There must have been an outline. What books and research documents, if any, were in that room with him? Did he have a copy of The Virginia Bill of Rights to review? Was Henry Lee's resolution written before him? Were any of John Locke's writings there? Was "Common Sense" on the bedside table?

Like most writers, did he think about his voice? Did he wait in ponder for days for his muse to come? How long did it take to get the opening sentence? Did he pace as he thought about it and worked out the document in his mind?

Did he awake from deep sleep, startled in the middle of the night by a thought that he hurriedly scrambled to put on paper before he might forget? Was Franklin and Adams, the Voice of our Revloution, in his thoughts as he wrote?

Thomas Jeffers from portrait by Thomas Sully.Did he know, as an extraordinarily young man for such a task, that in this room, at this desk, at this time, through his mind and by his hand that he was going to change the world?

It's been said that our Declaration of Independence came from an open channel between Jefferson and the divine. Maybe so. The idea of the ideal of individual liberty was certainly not new. But what really went on in that room in Jefferson's innermost thoughts, and those of his maker, we will never know.

Our freedom paper emerged out of it, a perfect synthesis of political philosophy and the evolution of human rights at that time. There was magic in the air.

It was in it's way a selling document. A really profound one. It sold us as an independent nation, justified it persuasively, got bought by the Continental Congress, after much debate before it, but with little amendment after it, and was distributed first here in America and then throughout the civilized world. The separation deed was done. It was bought and paid for dearly. There was no turning back now.

Jefferson and our founding fathers certainly did long lasting, important and blessed things that had never been done before. They thought new thoughts, they tread new ground. There has never been such an array of extraordinary men of such extraordinary talent that came together at the same time in our country before, though those that lead us through World War II might have come close.

On this 4th of July day, 2007, I'm thinking about all of them, and thinking about them well.

A few things about the writing of the document: It was written between June 11 and June 28, 1776. Jefferson was one of a committee of five (Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, Roger Sherman, Robert Livingston) that was asked to write the declaration. It was understood that it needed to list the causes for severance. An author at heart, Jefferson was the logical choice to write it. Adams made that choice.

Jefferson chose to be away from the distractions of the city to write the declaration. He rented two furnished rooms on the second floor in the home of Jacob Graff on the outskirts of Philadelphia, one was a sitting room, the other a bedchamber, with a bed shorter than Jefferson was tall.

The Graff house was surrounded by farm fields. There was a stable across the street. Horseflies from the stable pestered Jefferson constantly while writing it (could you imagine what that fly swatter would be worth today?). Jefferson had an account at the City Tavern while writing the Declaration. That obviously didn't distract him.

The original Graff house was torn down in 1883. It has since been recreated and is an exhibit.

The Weather on July 4, 1776:
The weather the day that our Declaration of Independence was ratified was not has hot as one might think. Jefferson was a meticulous keeper of a weather journal. He had a thermometer with him. The temperature that day was 68oF at 6 a.m., 72oF at 9 a.m., and 76oF at 1 p.m. It was 11o below normal. Winds that day shifted from the north to the southwest with decreasing air pressure. The sky become overcast and cloudy by late afternoon.

As a day goes, normal it was by usual means, maybe a little cooler than most for July, but what happened on that day was not normal by any means. It shook, and still shakes this world! Do have a great 4th of July.

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Are More Declines in South Lake Tahoe Home Values Hiding in Plain Sight?

Sometimes it hides in plain sight.There is a disconnect between current South Lake Tahoe market reality and buyers expectations.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) The article below this one addresses recent comments from a few of our readers that reveals current market reality in South Lake Tahoe is not what some buyers expect it might be (here).

These sentiments are based on a disconnect between current market conditions, which is based on the median sold price and expectations of some buyers that home prices will drop significantly more. These expectations are based on recent national real estate news pieces containing predictions of a further drop of 20% in the national median sold price.

As a lead-in to this article, please find here why national real estate predictions often have little effect on South Lake Tahoe market conditions (it has to do with the difference between the national market at large and the specifics of a second-home resort market).

At present the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe has dropped 15% since 2006 (from $460,000 to $390,000.)

Nevertheless we believe this disconnect is real; it’s valid, and to address it, and hopefully answer it as best as possible, we’re wondering if some of the decline as predicted in the national real estate news could already be factored in our market.

In other words is more decline here, now, hiding in plain sight?

The New Study: Can you get more house for the money now that before?
In the last few days, we’ve been crunching data back to 2003 to best understand what kind of house one can get for their money in South Lake Tahoe these days, compared to what it was from 2003 to today.

Articles on this study will start soon. We expect there will be four of them, each detailing specific price ranges.

The idea behind this new study is to see if we can find changes in home values outside of what the median sold price indicates. We’re going to look at key factors of size and square foot value. We’ll also look at condition and age, though these factors are more subjective.

If one can get more house for the money now, and we think the study will thus reveal, then it is possible that herein the “decline” some folks are looking for in order to make a buying decision has already appeared.

Could this be the answer to our disconnect?
Maybe this decline, or the amount of it, that one might expect from the current real estate climate is found in what is available, and the current price of it, rather than what has sold in the last 6 months.

For example, and this is more of a question for our study, if one pays $450,000 for a house in, lets say 2005, at the very top of the market, what is the size and square foot value of that home compared to a house sold in 2008 at the same price?

Though the “sold price” is identical in this example, do you get more these days than before, and if so, how much, and is it quantifiable?

In other words, what if one can get 20% more house? Adding that to the 15% decline we have seen already, would this better address buyers expectations?

This, along with the foreclosure information, and our monthly median-sold price reports, we think will give both potential Sellers and Buyers even greater depth and understanding of home values in South Lake Tahoe, CA.

For Sellers, the goal is to get your house sold, and for as much as possible... within your time frame. Right pricing, which comes from acceptance of thorough market analysis is fundamental to that.

For Buyers, the goal is to provide the basis for an understanding of both opportunity and advantage in the current market to buy as smart and as cost effective as possible. It’s also our goal to make sure you don’t miss out on buying at the best possible time... because of trying to find, and missing the bottom of a market that may be very close to, if not already there.

If our hunch is correct, the study we’re doing now could very well answer key questions for us to help you, well... look in all of the right places for the best information possible to use as a guide.

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We provide this information as a public service. Pleae email us with any questions or insights.